Is Colorado now a Democratic state?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by 19 points.  Even in a wave type of election, any district that is won by 19 points on the Presidential level is pretty solid one way or the other.

The 7th ws never supposed to be ours anyway, now the 3rd district that one can be picked up when it becomes open, but I don't see that happening in the next few years. There won't be a GOP wave in Colorado, there will a potential swing back to the GOP based on the overextension of the Dems in purple state brought on by two back to back bad years. Schafer did much better than I anticapated, and much better then Bauprez did against Ritter in 2006, and I think Udall was a stronger candidate then Ritter. Schafer did only slightly worse then McCain and in a 2004 enviroment Schafer definately would have won. Litte historic fact sbout the Senate seat that was up in 2008, the last two Republicans to hold that seat(Hank Brown and Wayne Allard) had previosly represented the 4th Congressional District just like Schafer did from 1996-2002. Good thing she lost otherwise MArilyn Musgrave would have been a Senate candidate in 2014 .

[Smash255]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by 19 points.  Even in a wave type of election, any district that is won by 19 points on the Presidential level is pretty solid one way or the other.

The 7th ws never supposed to be ours anyway, now the 3rd district that one can be picked up when it becomes open, but I don't see that happening in the next few years. There won't be a GOP wave in Colorado, there will a potential swing back to the GOP based on the overextension of the Dems in purple state brought on by two back to back bad years. Schafer did much better than I anticapated, and much better then Bauprez did against Ritter in 2006, and I think Udall was a stronger candidate then Ritter. Schafer did only slightly worse then McCain and in a 2004 enviroment Schafer definately would have won. Litte historic fact sbout the Senate seat that was up in 2008, the last two Republicans to hold that seat(Hank Brown and Wayne Allard) had previosly represented the 4th Congressional District just like Schafer did from 1996-2002. Good thing she lost otherwise MArilyn Musgrave would have been a Senate candidate in 2014 .

I still think it would have been quite difficult for Schaffer to win in a 04 environment, it would have been much closer, but the metro Denver area would have likely been a bit to much to overcome for someone as conservative as Schaffer.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by 19 points.  Even in a wave type of election, any district that is won by 19 points on the Presidential level is pretty solid one way or the other.

The 7th ws never supposed to be ours anyway, now the 3rd district that one can be picked up when it becomes open, but I don't see that happening in the next few years. There won't be a GOP wave in Colorado, there will a potential swing back to the GOP based on the overextension of the Dems in purple state brought on by two back to back bad years. Schafer did much better than I anticapated, and much better then Bauprez did against Ritter in 2006, and I think Udall was a stronger candidate then Ritter. Schafer did only slightly worse then McCain and in a 2004 enviroment Schafer definately would have won. Litte historic fact sbout the Senate seat that was up in 2008, the last two Republicans to hold that seat(Hank Brown and Wayne Allard) had previosly represented the 4th Congressional District just like Schafer did from 1996-2002. Good thing she lost otherwise MArilyn Musgrave would have been a Senate candidate in 2014 .

I still think it would have been quite difficult for Schaffer to win in a 04 environment, it would have been much closer, but the metro Denver area would have likely been a bit to much to overcome for someone as conservative as Schaffer.

Well considering the Allard got through in 2002 abeit narrowly, I think it would have been plausible. It would definately been close and the Udall name is gold out west. I shouldn't have used the word definately. Really if Allard had left after one term like his predecessor, Schafer would be a Senator today most likely, unless he got defeated in 2008 of course but that would have the best result for the party. Hindsight is 20/20.

[Smash255]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by 19 points.  Even in a wave type of election, any district that is won by 19 points on the Presidential level is pretty solid one way or the other.

The 7th ws never supposed to be ours anyway, now the 3rd district that one can be picked up when it becomes open, but I don't see that happening in the next few years. There won't be a GOP wave in Colorado, there will a potential swing back to the GOP based on the overextension of the Dems in purple state brought on by two back to back bad years. Schafer did much better than I anticapated, and much better then Bauprez did against Ritter in 2006, and I think Udall was a stronger candidate then Ritter. Schafer did only slightly worse then McCain and in a 2004 enviroment Schafer definately would have won. Litte historic fact sbout the Senate seat that was up in 2008, the last two Republicans to hold that seat(Hank Brown and Wayne Allard) had previosly represented the 4th Congressional District just like Schafer did from 1996-2002. Good thing she lost otherwise MArilyn Musgrave would have been a Senate candidate in 2014 .

I still think it would have been quite difficult for Schaffer to win in a 04 environment, it would have been much closer, but the metro Denver area would have likely been a bit to much to overcome for someone as conservative as Schaffer.

Well considering the Allard got through in 2002 abeit narrowly, I think it would have been plausible. It would definately been close and the Udall name is gold out west. I shouldn't have used the word definately. Really if Allard had left after one term like his predecessor, Schafer would be a Senator today most likely, unless he got defeated in 2008 of course but that would have the best result for the party. Hindsight is 20/20.

If schaffer and Udall went up against each other in 04, I think the results would have mirrored the actual results between Salazar & Coors.   With Schaffer being a bit stronger than coors in portions of ex-urban Denver & rural portions of the state, and Udall doing a bit better than Salazar in inner suburban Denver, Boulder and the ski-resort areas.  If Schaffer ran in 02 he would have had a better chance of winning (though considering it was pretty close with the incumbent Allard, it wouldn't be a sure thing for Schaffer in 02 either) though he would likely be a goner by now anyway.

[sg0508]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

[5280]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Another reason for Republicans to move out of Colorado and move to Texas or Kansas.  That's what happens when you get Californians moving to a once beautiful state, they take their politics with them.

[Smash255]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Agree, but as far as the Senators go, its one moderate (Salazar) and one liberal (Udall)

[Aizen]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Agree, but as far as the Senators go, its one moderate (Salazar) and one liberal (Udall)

Udall is a liberal but unfortunately his voting record has yet to mirror one. It will probably move to the left as time passes but for now he's voting like a moderate.

[Sbane]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Another reason for Republicans to move out of Colorado and move to Texas or Kansas.  That's what happens when you get Californians moving to a once beautiful state, they take their politics with them.

Yeah you should definitely move to Texas. There is nothing more beautiful than suburban Dallas!!!! Oh and you can't forget those wonderful beaches in Galveston.

[sg0508]

Like in VA, the GOP has poorly planned their attack here, or lack there one and has not accounted for the change in population. 

Northeastern VA has killed the GOP and southern CO along with the suburbs surrounding Denver are moving more towards the middle.  The Hispanic influx is hurting the republicans too.

The problem is, there is just nothing the party has to offer in these changing states and the demographical changes have hurt the party. 

On the other hand, you have to give the democrats/Chuck Schumer a lot of credit.  They have run the right types of candidates and run some strong campaigns.  Obama wanted CO so they planned the DNC there, ran moderate ads there and won, Salazar ran a terrific campaign against Coors and won, Ritter won easily, etc. 

Notice how except for Udall (since you know more than me), all the candidates the democrats are running in these states (including VA, AZ, etc) are MODERATES that will have some appeal to disgruntled GOP voters. It makes a difference.

[5280]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Another reason for Republicans to move out of Colorado and move to Texas or Kansas.  That's what happens when you get Californians moving to a once beautiful state, they take their politics with them.

Yeah you should definitely move to Texas. There is nothing more beautiful than suburban Dallas!!!! Oh and you can't forget those wonderful beaches in Galveston.

I wouldn't mind moving to Texas actually.  They have a heck alot more jobs there than Colorado.  I'm tired of the mountains, snow and below 32F weather. I need more flatland and the ocean not too far away.

[Vepres]

Notice how except for Udall (since you know more than me), all the candidates the democrats are running in these states (including VA, AZ, etc) are MODERATES that will have some appeal to disgruntled GOP voters. It makes a difference.

I would love to see more moderate Republicans. I heard Cornyn, head of the NRCC, is trying to get moderates to run in swing and Democratic states.

[Mr.Phips]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

[Sbane]

Yes.  It's getting blue and very quickly.  Since Billy Owens height in 02, the only thing that has gone right for the GOP was Bush beating Kerry by 4.5 pts in 2004.

Other than that:

-The democrats have picked up 3 US house seats
-Both Senate seats have been lost to moderate democrats
-The statehouse is now democratic
-Both houses of Congress within the state are now democratic
-Obama beat McCain pretty badly here in 08.

The GOP doesn't win squat here anymore.

Another reason for Republicans to move out of Colorado and move to Texas or Kansas.  That's what happens when you get Californians moving to a once beautiful state, they take their politics with them.

Yeah you should definitely move to Texas. There is nothing more beautiful than suburban Dallas!!!! Oh and you can't forget those wonderful beaches in Galveston.

I wouldn't mind moving to Texas actually.  They have a heck alot more jobs there than Colorado.  I'm tired of the mountains, snow and below 32F weather. I need more flatland and the ocean not too far away.

You and my uncle would get along well.

[Vepres]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

[Mr.Phips]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

Highly unlikely.  The Republicans that ran in 2006 and 2008 were very far to the right. 

[Smash255]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

They haven't done that yet.  The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting.  The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that).  Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)

[Vepres]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

They haven't done that yet.  The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting.  The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that).  Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)

It is a lean-Democratic district, but certainly still winnable for a moderate Republican. If the state party gets it's act together, Republicans could win it.

[5280]

Why is district CO-1 boundry made in a way that is weird, in a way that benefits the Democrats?  If you look at it, most of it is west of I-25, part of it in Adams county, small part of Weld county and the rest in Broomfield/Boulder counties?  That makes it unfair for people who are not a Democrat.

[Smash255]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

They haven't done that yet.  The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting.  The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that).  Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)

It is a lean-Democratic district, but certainly still winnable for a moderate Republican. If the state party gets it's act together, Republicans could win it.

Lean districts aren't won by 19 points on the Presidential level......

[Smash255]

Why is district CO-1 boundry made in a way that is weird, in a way that benefits the Democrats?  If you look at it, most of it is west of I-25, part of it in Adams county, small part of Weld county and the rest in Broomfield/Boulder counties?  That makes it unfair for people who are not a Democrat.

I believe you mean CO-2, not CO-1 (CO-1 is mostly Denver based).   The GOP actually had an advantage in the last round of redistricting, though not a complete monopoly on it (had the Gov's mansion, solid majority is State House, Dems had a one seat advantage in the State Senate).  Also despite Obama winning the state by almost 10 points, McCain won 4 of the 7 CD's (though 3 & 4 were narrow). 

Heading into the last redistricting the GOP held four seats, the Dems two, CO was rewarded another seat as a result of population growth (the 7th district).  Redistricting generally kept the 4-2 GOP advantage alive, and the 7th was made into a marginal district (but has since trended heavily Democratic).  The 2nd did become a bit more solid for the Dems as a result of the last redistricting, but that was done to benefit Tancredo, whose district became much more Republican.

[ottermax]

No, but it's definitely not a Republican state.

It's interesting to see how the state has trended left so quickly. It's nice to see some Democratic strength in the middle of all that Red!

[Mr.Phips]

Why is district CO-1 boundry made in a way that is weird, in a way that benefits the Democrats?  If you look at it, most of it is west of I-25, part of it in Adams county, small part of Weld county and the rest in Broomfield/Boulder counties?  That makes it unfair for people who are not a Democrat.

I believe you mean CO-2, not CO-1 (CO-1 is mostly Denver based).   The GOP actually had an advantage in the last round of redistricting, though not a complete monopoly on it (had the Gov's mansion, solid majority is State House, Dems had a one seat advantage in the State Senate).  Also despite Obama winning the state by almost 10 points, McCain won 4 of the 7 CD's (though 3 & 4 were narrow). 

Heading into the last redistricting the GOP held four seats, the Dems two, CO was rewarded another seat as a result of population growth (the 7th district).  Redistricting generally kept the 4-2 GOP advantage alive, and the 7th was made into a marginal district (but has since trended heavily Democratic).  The 2nd did become a bit more solid for the Dems as a result of the last redistricting, but that was done to benefit Tancredo, whose district became much more Republican.

And the only reason CO-07 was held by a Republican for two terms was likely 9/11.  I dont think Beaprez would have won there in an open seat in a more neutral or lean Dem climate. 

[Vepres]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

They haven't done that yet.  The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting.  The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that).  Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)

It is a lean-Democratic district, but certainly still winnable for a moderate Republican. If the state party gets it's act together, Republicans could win it.

Lean districts aren't won by 19 points on the Presidential level......

ID-1, SD At-large, ND At-large, NY-13, these all suggested, based on the presidential results, that they would be strong for one party but went to the other. I'm sure there are many others as well.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

We will have to wait for 2010, but I feel a Republican wave coming here. They probably won't win the state legislature, but the governorship, CO-4 and CO-7 (when the seat is open), and the seat up for election in 2010 are all up for grabs.

CO-7??  That has turned into a solid Dem district.

In 2006 Perlmutter rode the Democratic wave, and in 2008 he had another Democratic wave as well as incumbency.

Obama won the district by almost 20 points and even John Kerry won the district 51%-48% while getting clobbered statewide.  It is a pretty solid Dem district now. 

Though don't forget a Republican that runs there will be more moderate than McCain or Bush.

They haven't done that yet.  The district is pretty much gone for the GOP and will probably become even further done after redistricting.  The only way the GOP would even have a slight chance of getting it back at this point is either by major scandal or having that open seat come during a 94 type election for the Dems (and it would probably have to be even worse than that).  Its not even a moderate district anymore, its pretty much a liberal district at this point (granted not nearly as liberal as CO-1 & CO-2, but still liberal)

It is a lean-Democratic district, but certainly still winnable for a moderate Republican. If the state party gets it's act together, Republicans could win it.

Lean districts aren't won by 19 points on the Presidential level......

ID-1, SD At-large, ND At-large, NY-13, these all suggested, based on the presidential results, that they would be strong for one party but went to the other. I'm sure there are many others as well.

NY-13 is not a Republican leaning district. Its a marginal district with a slim GOP advantage. There are no real Republican district left in the NY as we found out in 2006 and 2008, most of them are marginal at best. The 26th is the stongest, followed by the 29th and the 3rd. The two at-large districts are special cases where an incumbent is able to basically become well liked do to small populations and thus the ease of retail politics. And its not just the incumbents as others have accomplished a similar feet there. The only good example in the list is ID-01, TX 22 in 2006 is another. Both either involved an insane incumbent, or extenuating circumstance, the candidate in TX-22 not be on the ballot. Both in wave years for the party of the underdog creating the upset.