As Democrats expand, where will Republicans make new gains?
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  As Democrats expand, where will Republicans make new gains?
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Author Topic: As Democrats expand, where will Republicans make new gains?  (Read 1799 times)
Jacobtm
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« on: June 15, 2009, 12:06:52 PM »
« edited: June 15, 2009, 12:10:29 PM by Jacobtm »

While in a few years Republicans may be able to win back some states that Dems have gained influence in over the last couple of cycles, where will Republicans be able to break through and make gains in areas that Democrats have dominated in since before the Bush presidency?

As Michigan continues to bleed population, could Republicans pick up voters finally tired of Democrats presiding over consistent decline?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2009, 01:14:32 PM »

The only places I can see the GOP make gains is probably around the lakes.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2009, 01:18:24 PM »

Everyone says Michigan because blue collar workers are more conservative on social issues, but being a Solidarity reader (the magazine of the UAW) I can say that most of these types are really upset at how Republicans handled the car companies' crisis.  I've read letters from 60 year old Kentuckians say that they will never vote for a Republican again.
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JewishConservative
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2009, 04:15:16 PM »

The only places I can see the GOP make gains is probably around the lakes.

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Vepres
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« Reply #4 on: June 15, 2009, 04:50:58 PM »
« Edited: June 15, 2009, 04:53:10 PM by Vepres »

Here, I'll do a little map of the states. Green states are one where Republicans could make gains in 2010 and 2012 (though they may not win them in a presidential contest).



Green states are ones where they can make gains in both 2010 and 2012 at both the state and national level. I only included states Obama won by more than 5 points.

Of course they'll have to change some things. Like to win in the Northeast and Oregon they must moderate on social issues, to win in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada they must cool down the immigration rhetoric. To win in the great lakes, they need to point out the corruption and failure to revive the states' economies on the Democrats' part.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #5 on: June 15, 2009, 05:58:08 PM »

A lot depends on what direction the Republican party goes in order to regain voters.

1) Religious populism
The evangelical movement appears to be making some strides towards framing the debate on more than just abortion and gays.  A religious-based economic populist strain would help in the Great Lakes, Colorado, and New Mexico.  But, that is a path that won't lead to immediate electoral success.

2) Fiscal conservative
In theory that would work, but it won't, t least not now.  As much as I think fiscal conservatism will have some appeal, the GOP used up their credibility on this issue under GWB.  However, this position could serve as the springboard for a credible third party effort.

3) Law&order / defense
Perhaps if the troubles in Mexico with the drug war spill over the border in a meaningful way. (Say a drug cartel launches an assault on the DEA's El Paso intelligence HQ.)  Otherwise these planks that the Republicans have credibility on won't have much traction.

Realistically speaking, the GOP's only hope for revitalization in 2012 is for Obama to screw the pooch, and I don't mean Bo.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: June 18, 2009, 07:57:20 PM »

Michigan is a good point.  I see Republicans continuing to gain in the declining Rust Belt as it tires of its traditionally Democratic leadership.  Blue collar "Joe the Plumber" types will probably start turning to the Republicans.  Lower middle class whites.

This, but at a cost - twenty years from now, the Republicans will be crusading against the DLC and its Crosses of Fiat Money (or gold). In short, your Party is going populist, and nothing you say or do can stop it.
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