The Atlasian Sentinel

[afleitch]

I could never imagine that RPP was such an authoritarian political machine. "You would never be Senator without me", "The political machine was behind you", "You don't respect your party". Switch "party" with "family", and you could have the exact phrasing of the mafia.
Rowan Brandon is a free individual, and people who voted for him voted "Rowan Brandon", not "Regional Protection Party". You don't own his seat, he does, and therefore he is free to do whatever he considers right with his political positions.

Bravo!

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wrong.  People voted for Brandon because he was the RPP candidate

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I could never imagine that RPP was such an authoritarian political machine. "You would never be Senator without me", "The political machine was behind you", "You don't respect your party". Switch "party" with "family", and you could have the exact phrasing of the mafia.
Rowan Brandon is a free individual, and people who voted for him voted "Rowan Brandon", not "Regional Protection Party". You don't own his seat, he does, and therefore he is free to do whatever he considers right with his political positions.

That may have been true in the past, but in the current landscape of Atlasia, people are elected, with maybe the exception of afleitch, because of the party they run with. Rowan was preference and not preferenced entirely because he was in the RPP, as was Fritz and Marokai because they were in the JCP, as was myself and SPC, as was Franzl and afleitch. That's the nature of the game, like it or not. If he ran as an independent, he would've been nowhere near the Senate. If he was in a different party, he would have never been nominated. I'm not trying to be confrontational, but I am stating facts about the current landscape of Atlasia. It is his seat now, and he doesn't have to step down, but hardly anyone gets elected these days because of who they are (with exceptions, as I said). It's foolish to make that argument, because it simply is not true. Most people vote down party lines whether it be JCP, RPP or DA. Virtually everyone voted their top 2 party candidates first in the last senate election.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think we're using "respected Atlasian" in regards to SPC a little loosely.

I'm hard pressed to find many Atlasians who are respect more, at least by their side.  Conservative /=/ Disrespected except in the eyes of the JCP/LNF/and some of the DA

[Antonio the Sixth]

Atlasia isn't at all partisanly polarized, and the recent senate elections prove how vote are in great part a matter of personal candidacies. If not how could the DA get 25 votes with only 18 members ? And how in april the same party got 31 with about 10 members ? And why the RPP got only one seat in april and august, when they are the second largest party and only 3 people behind the JCP ?Why did the two JCP candidates get 42 out of 82 votes agaist an united RPP-DA candidacy if the sum of the two parties' members is greatly superior to JCP's ? There is of course many partisan voters, but the elections are decided by people who "betray" their own party, JCPers and RPPers that chose DA. Above all, I think the current RPP leadership didn't notice how the RPP grassroots is more and more in conflict with the party's stances and strategy, and that these grassroots are more and more friendly to the DA and use to vote for it because they disagree with their party's radicalism. Also, I think RowanBrandon didn't betray at all his party, but just followed it in it's protest of the "DWTL system". If you keep negating it, RPP has no future.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yeah Antonio you should definitely be lecturing me on how to win elections

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah Antonio you should definitely be lecturing me on how to win elections

Yes, nice win there in the Senate. Oh wait, I'm sorry. You lost.

[DownWithTheLeft]

For reference moron:

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2007_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/December_2008_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2009_Senate_Election

As well as being appointed to a senate seat by AHDuke

Not to mention having my candidate win the December 2008 and April 2008 presidential elections, including finishing one vote of out of second by my lonesome in April, as well as would have would the June 2008 election had I been around to help my party.

When you come close to having that kind of electoral success, I'd like to know

[Antonio the Sixth]

You know how to win elections. Just as George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Hitler, Mussolini, and in a certain way Lenin, Stalin, Mao and Pétain. Are they popular statesmen today ?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For reference moron:

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2007_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/December_2008_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2009_Senate_Election

Perhaps he was thinking more about this one:
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/August_2007_Senate_Election

[DownWithTheLeft]

For reference moron:

https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2007_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/December_2008_Senate_Election
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/April_2009_Senate_Election

Perhaps he was thinking more about this one:
https://uselectionatlas.org/AFEWIKI/index.php/August_2007_Senate_Election

I'll admit defeats come to, butr remember I dropped out

[Vepres]

I'll start being more active here once the new Senate begins and they do Senate-ish things.

[Vepres]

The Atlasian Sentinel

Week In Review
By Vepres

Alrighty then, let's look at what's been going on in the new Senate, and more:

• The Global Treaty Organization Expansion Bill was withdrawn by Senate Hashemite after meeting opposition. One opponent, Ebowed, said, "...the GTO wasn't actually meant to replace the UN."

• Secretary of External Affairs Happy Warrior spoke with Colombian President Uribe. According to the Secretary, Uribe had not intentions of going to war with Venezuela and that they would only use their military to combat the FARC rebels. Secretary Happy Warrior recommended that President Lief commit troops to fighting the FARC and prevent an attack on the Colombian President. No action has been taken by either the President or the Senate thus far.

• The Party Empowerment Act has passed in the Senate. If signed into law, the bill would allow parties to remove members from their party and deny them the ability to rejoin if they so choose. No word as of yet on if the President is going to sign or veto the bill.

• Senator MasterJedi was reelected as the President Pro-Tempore of the Senate in a vote of 6-4 against opponent Marokai.

• A verdict has yet to be reached in Purple State v. Lief. The case came about after President Lief pardoned Devilman. Purple State argues that the Atlasian President doesn't have the constitutional ability to pardon criminals. Attorney General bgwah, arguing on behalf of the President, argues that there is precedent for it, despite it not being explicitly mentioned in the constitution.

• The Atlasian Motorcycle Safety Bill is up for final vote. So far the tally is 5 in favor and 3 opposed. If passed, nobody under the age of ten will be allowed to ride on a motorcycle, nobody can knowingly allowing somebody unlicensed to use a motorcycle on a highway or not wearing protective headgear. The punishment will be a small fine, and licence suspension and jail time for repeated offenses.

• Senator North Carolina Yankee introduced the Emergency Credit Access Bill. Essentially, the bill would apportion $75 billion of credit in lines of $100k for small businesses with another $50 billion to be available to people looking to start a business. Additionally it would apportion $75 billion of credit to be available to people looking to buy a house and another $75 billion available to people with mortgages at or above 5% interest who want to refinance. All these loans will have a 4% interest rate.

• The Reasonable Minimum Wage Bill, introduced by Senator Marokai, is currently being debated. In its current form, the minimum wage will be set to $7.75 per hour and will be increased to $8.50 by 2010. It will also impose harsher punishments to businesses paying people below minimum wage.

• The Colombian Assistance and Stability Bill has passes the Senate with a vote of 8 in favor and 2 opposed. The bill allows Atlasia to proved monetary and military aid to Colombia, and apportions $250 dollars to the Department of Foreign Affairs to be used at the SoEA's discretion to help maintain stability in the country. No word on the President's position on the bill.

• The Efficient Automobile Rebate System Bill is currently being debated in the Senate. The bill currently provides rebates for people with cars ten years or older that get under 21 mi/gal who seek to purchase a new car with at least 33 mi/gal or a truck or SUV with at least 26 mi/gal. The rebates will be between $3500 and $5000.

• The Internet Infrastructure and Access Expansion Bill passed the Senate with 9 in favor, and 1 opposed. The bill apportions money to be used to lay fiber optic cables and build broadband towers in rural areas. The goal is to extend internet access to poor and rural areas. It is currently on the President's desk.

• BenConstine declared his candidacy for the Mideast Senate seat.

• Senator MasterJedi has announced he will run for President in October, speculation mounts as to who his VP will be.

• Breaking News: According to the Atlasia Dispatch-Herald, five masked gunmen have taken as many as thirty hostages in the Atlasian Colombian Embassy. Atlasian and Colombian troops, after some gunfire with the attackers, have the embassy surrounded and are trying to find a way to quickly and safely free the hostages.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You forgot, MasterJedi running for President.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

You forgot, MasterJedi running for President.

And my running for Senate.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

You forgot, MasterJedi running for President.

And my running for Senate.

An announcement for the presidential race not making the news is more surprising than an announcement for a senate race not making the news, but whatever you say.

[Vepres]

I'll add it. I was so focused on all the Senate stuff I forgot, sorry guys.

[Hash]

I withdrew the original GTO bill to rework the language, not because of opposition, and a GTO2 bill was immediately re-introduced.

[Vepres]

I withdrew the original GTO bill to rework the language, not because of opposition, and a GTO2 bill was immediately re-introduced.

Oh, ok.

[Vepres]

The Atlasian Sentinel

This Week in Nyman
By Vepres

*These are not in chronological order.

• A group of prominent Atlasians, led by Senator Marokai, are considering impeaching Associate Supreme Court Justice Sam Spade. They cite the court's ruling on the LGB Dignity bill, in which the court ruled that it was unconstitutional because it violated a parent's right to raise their children in a manner they see fit. There is still much controversy over at the capital.

• President Lief's veto of the Protection of Public Health Bill, has been over turned by the Senate. The bill bans smoking in public areas.

• The Supreme Court dismissed Purple State's lawsuit after they determined he did not have the standing to sue. Justice Opebo dissented from this ruling, saying that this would increase judicial activism and that there was no good reason to create such precedent.

• The Reasonable Minimum Wage Bill was signed into law by the President. The bill, among other things, would increase the minimum wage to $8.50 by 2010.

• The Cabinet Restructuring Bill 2009 was signed into law by President Lief on Tuesday. The bill creates a Department of Internal Affairs, which would handle the enforcement of domestic law and policy. The President has yet to make an appointment.
  
  
  • The Right to Life Bill, which would ban abortions, has been withdrawn by its sponsor Senator RowanBrandon.
  
  
  • Xahar has sued President Lief for his pardoning of Devilman88. Xahar believes that the President does not have the power to pardon a felon. No word yet as to whether the court will accept the case or not.
  
  
  • The Welfare Reform Bill 2009, which is being sponsored by Senator afleitch, which at first seemed to be sure to pass, has met some resistance from Presidential candidate Al, who believes the bill, as it is currently worded, would be a legal nightmare. Afleitch as offered an amendment that may solve the problem, though it has yet to be debated.
    
    
    • The Voting Reform Bill 2009 has met strong resistance from Senators of all three major parties. The bill would require people to be a member of the Atlas forum at-large for 6 months (though even the sponsor, Senator RowanBrandon, says this will be decreased) before registering to vote in the fantasy board. The bill aims to reduce the number of zombie voters.
    
    
    • The Bow Chicka Bow Wow Bill, which would allow people 14 years and up to legally buy porn, is currently being debated on the Senate floor. While opinions on the bill are mixed, it appears to have support from a number of Senators.
    
    
    • The is currently being debated in the Senate. It would require airline passengers to be compensated if they are forced to remain on a grounded aircraft for more than three hours.

[Vepres]

The Atlasian Sentinel

A (hopefully) Unbiased Analysis of the Upcoming Presidential Election
By Vepres

The up coming election is a significant one in our country's recent history. This election is a referendum on President Lief, who enacted major reforms as President including a stimulus package and health care reform. His opponents are all established Atlasian politicians, one of each representing the three ideologies Lief doesn't, European socialism, moderate, and libertarian/conservative.

Former President Al, the first LNF candidate for President, has expressed very left-wing views and has criticized politicians from all sides of the aisle. His LNF base, which consists of roughly 10 voters, will net him 10%-15% of first preference votes (assuming turnout is roughly the same or a little higher than the last Presidential election). This is a strong base indeed, however beyond this he has few potential voters. While the left-wing JCP has endorsed him as their second preference, there is very little chance President Lief will be eliminated before the final round if he fails to win because he has the almost unanimous support of his own party, the JCP. Al has almost no appeal outside these two parties, and thus Lief would have to have unrealistically low support for Al to have a chance.

President Lief is a member of the JCP; Atlasia's largest party. As is stated above, the President has near unanimous support from his party, which will net him at least 30 votes if the party's turnout is very low, most likely many more. Even if there is 100% turnout from the general populace, this base alone will give Lief at least 30% of the vote under worst case scenarios. If turnout assumptions for the JCP are made more reasonable, he could conceivably net 45% of the vote from his party alone. Therefore, he will almost certainly make it to the final round because of this strong base.

Former Senator PiT, a member of the Progressive Conservative Party, is probably Lief's strongest opponent. Indeed, PiT tied with Lief in the final tally of the vote, losing only because Lief had one more first preference than his opponent. The PCP, which has ballooned into Atlasia's second largest party with 52 members appears to have strong support for PiT. Both the conservative and libertarian wings of the party have united behind him, and because of the party's greater size, PiT could nearly match Lief in numbers with his base. Depending on the PCP turnout, PiT could receive between 25% and 40% of the vote from his base alone. However, PiT doesn't have the benefit of a PCP/DA unity ticket like he had four months ago, so his support may be more limited to Atlasia's right-wing, at least in the first round of voting.

The wild card in this race is Senator Franzl, the "youngest" (time in Atlasia) candidate in the race. The DA has fielded a purely DA ticket, a risky move considering the party is roughly 1/3 the size of the next largest party, the PCP. While his base of 12-18 voters may be small, he does have the advantage of being well liked by those on all sides of the aisle. However, though he may receive many 2nd, 3rd, and 4th preferences, these may not benefit him if he is eliminated before Former Senator PiT or President Lief and Former President Al. While in a one-on-one race he would most likely defeat any of his opponents, in a four-way race he lacks the strong base that the President and PiT enjoy. His success will depend on how many JCP and PCP members first preference him, and how many Al voters 2nd preference him over Lief.

So, there is the relative support of each candidate. Now, the odds of each candidate emerging victorious must be assessed. Fmr. President Al has a small base and little first preference support outside of his party. The only way for him to emerge victorious is for the JCP turnout to be extremely low and for some members of other parties to first preference him. If, through and intervention of the gods, Lief is somehow eliminated before Al, all those JCP votes would transfer to the former President. Even then, this scenario could only occur with low left-wing turnout, thus PiT or Franzl may still defeat him in the end. Therefore, it is determined that Al's odds of emerging victorious are close to zero.

Senator Franzl, like Al, is an underdog. However, a Franzl victory is more likely than an Al victory. Franzl has been endorsed by the PCP for their 2nd preference vote, thus if PiT is eliminated before him, he may have a chance. In fact, should PiT somehow be eliminated before Franzl, the DA Senator would probably win in a squeaker, as the election would become similar to last June, only with a larger PCP. Still, it is unlikely PiT would be eliminated before Franzl, and the LNF voters seem to mostly want to 2nd preference Lief. Thus, his odds are probably low, though not hopelessly so.

Former Senator PiT probably has the best chance of defeating Lief. With a far more robust PCP behind him, he has the highest odds of the three challengers to Lief the make it to the final round of voting. Assuming he makes it to the final round, his victory will depend on how many DA voters preference him over Lief. If one looks at the last election, PiT received almost unanimous DA support. However, then-Senator HappyWarrior (DA) was on the ticket, and it without a DA running mate, it is hard to determine whether more left-leaning DA members such as Purple State and Hashemite will favor him over Lief.

So, the President does in fact have the highest chance of winning, but if the election goes as the Sentinel projects it will, he will win by > 10 votes. Really, under the most likely scenario, the election comes down to who the left-wing DA members prefer, Pit or Lief. The JCP has only has four more voters than the PCP, so the bases are roughly equal. Now, assuming all of the LNF votes transfer to Lief after Al's likely elimination, Lief will have a 15-20 vote advantage over PiT (assuming high turnout and roughly proportional turnout by party). Now, The more centrist and right-wing DA members such as afleitch, Fraznl, myself, and others 2nd preference PiT, he will only have ~5-10 vote deficit. It all comes down to the left-leaning DA members. If most of them 2nd preference PiT, he will win in a squeaker. If they err towards Lief however, the President will win reelection by ~8-12 votes.

Based on our analysis, the candidates rank in this order from most likely to win at the top to least likely at the bottom.

Odds of Winning:
1. President Lief (JCP)
2. Former Senator PiT (PCP)
3. Senator Franzl (DA)
4. Former President Al (LNF)

[Alexander Hamilton]

AndrewCT/afleitch was a purely DA ticket and did even better than Franzl has a chance to do

Also, the SoFA list contains people that have no chance of voting so I wouldn't go off of that.

[Vepres]

AndrewCT/afleitch was a purely DA ticket and did even better than Franzl has a chance to do

Ah, my mistake. Fixed.

[Alexander Hamilton]

And Franzl has not been endorsed with our second prefs. In fact, I'm second preferenceing AL and encouraging others to do so as well.

[Vepres]

And Franzl has not been endorsed with our second prefs. In fact, I'm second preferenceing AL and encouraging others to do so as well.

Did your party make a 2nd pref. endorsement? If so, link please.