Which states do you think will switch party sides?

[pogo stick]

Well, I think that alot of states will  switch sides.

Democrat gains :

Colorado
Montana (I think it'll slowly turn more democrat over a course of 30 years)
New Hampshire (I think it'll become unwinnable for GOP)
Nevada (State is becoming increasingly progressive, Hispanics population going up big time)

Republican Gains :

Michigan (I have a feeling Obama will screw up GM so bad that the libs will lose MI for a generation)
Minnesota (The right republican can flick the switch and this state will swing republican)
Missouri (I think this will become a GOP stronghold after 2016)

[bullmoose88]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

[5280]

Either switch or gain more of...

Republicans:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri

Democrats:
Nevada
Oregon
New Mexico
Virginia

[The Night Owlditor]

Either switch or gain more of...

Republicans:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri

Democrats:
Nevada
Oregon
New Mexico
Virginia

Democrats already pretty much control Oregon so the gains will be insignificant, at most.

 I don't think Republicans will make any gains in Michigan. Remember that in 2006, Republicans really thought they had a chance and Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) was really unpopular and she won by a 14-point margin. That combined with the fact that Democrats knocked out two sitting GOP incumbents in the U.S. House makes it hard for me to believe that the Republicans will make any gains soon, and I doubt the GM bankruptcy fiasco will really turn Michigan against the Democrats. Same thing for Minnesota. It's been a reliably blue state for decades. I could see Republicans making a few gains in Pennsylvania, but not much.

And as for Missouri, it will always be a bellwether/battleground/purple state. Republicans and Democrats stand an equal chance of being elected here, it just depends on two factors: the national winds, and voter turnout.

[Vepres]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Because of all the Kerry states in 2008, it was the closest (the margin was about the same as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire I believe). Bush came within 2 points in 2000, and 3 in 2004. Plus, they have a Republican governor, and the state has been trending Republican.

[Nym90]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

[Vepres]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

You know what this reminds me of. Those silly Democrats thinking they can win North Carolina and Virginia... oh wait.

[Nym90]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

You know what this reminds me of. Those silly Democrats thinking they can win North Carolina and Virginia... oh wait.

Well of course a Republican could win those states, I'm not saying they can't, but the idea that those states are trending GOP is much more laughable than the idea that Virginia or North Carolina were trending Dem. If anything Michigan is becoming more Democratic, while Minnesota is at best remaining static.

[War on Want]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

You know what this reminds me of. Those silly Democrats thinking they can win North Carolina and Virginia... oh wait.

Well of course a Republican could win those states, I'm not saying they can't, but the idea that those states are trending GOP is much more laughable than the idea that Virginia or North Carolina were trending Dem. If anything Michigan is becoming more Democratic, while Minnesota is at best remaining static.

Exactly, Minnesota might be slowly, slowly moving towards the Republicans but it would take decades before it is a tossup state and I am sure by then that trends would reverse. I am beginning to think that the only places trending towards the Republicans are in the South, Appalachia, parts of the Rust Belt, and parts of the Plains. I don't see anywhere else becoming more Republican unless they have a major change in the future(which will probably happen).

[pbrower2a]

Every State part of the "Blue Firewall" -- states and DC that had not voted for a Republican nominee for President after 1988 -- went for Obama by at least a 10% margin, and it's hard to see any of those States showing any Republican trend -- yet. Add to those states three that went for a Republican nominee only once in the same time (Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico) -- and all of them went for Obama by at least 9%. Nevada and Virginia seem to be joining that firewall.  The culture that created that Firewall has not disappeared -- and the GOP practically created it as a reaction to its short-sighted opportunism.

Even with the likely reapportionment of House seats that will lop off eight or so electoral votes from those states as a whole, it won't take much winning of states outside the firewall to ensure an Obama victory. The states that are enough singly include several that Obama won: Virginia, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina. Those that were close include Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona; either one wins it. Colorado is enough with Nevada.

[TeePee4Prez]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

Or for that matter, Pennsylvania... Simple math- GOP gains in declining West, Dem gains in growing East.  Even with Corbett-Meehan, I still think the Democrats will prevail in the 2010 Gubernatorial unless we nominate Knox.  The GOP needs to crack the Philly suburbs before they can consider winning the state again.  Only Castor and Meehan could even scratch the surface here and even that's a stretch.  More in that thread before this gets hijacked...

[pogo stick]

PA will never trend republican. It's too Pro-Union.

[TeePee4Prez]

PA will never trend republican. It's too Pro-Union.

If the old time moderate Republicans emerge like Hugh Scott, and John Heinz, maybe.  With Palin and Limbaugh at the head- no way in hell.  The GOP's best best in PA right now is Murtha's "redneck" district.  Yeah and people are either dying or leaving there.

[Keystone Phil]

The GOP's best best in PA right now is Murtha's "redneck" district.  Yeah and people are either dying or leaving there.

Holden's (whenever he leaves) and Carney's, too.

[aaaa2222]

Either switch or gain more of...

Republicans:
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri

Democrats:
Nevada
Oregon
New Mexico
Virginia

Democrats already pretty much control Oregon so the gains will be insignificant, at most.

 I don't think Republicans will make any gains in Michigan. Remember that in 2006, Republicans really thought they had a chance and Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D-Mich.) was really unpopular and she won by a 14-point margin. That combined with the fact that Democrats knocked out two sitting GOP incumbents in the U.S. House makes it hard for me to believe that the Republicans will make any gains soon, and I doubt the GM bankruptcy fiasco will really turn Michigan against the Democrats. Same thing for Minnesota. It's been a reliably blue state for decades. I could see Republicans making a few gains in Pennsylvania, but not much.

And as for Missouri, it will always be a bellwether/battleground/purple state. Republicans and Democrats stand an equal chance of being elected here, it just depends on two factors: the national winds, and voter turnout.

I disagree. It was 8 points more Republican than the national average this year, that's definitely not a bellwether.

[Vepres]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

You know what this reminds me of. Those silly Democrats thinking they can win North Carolina and Virginia... oh wait.

Well of course a Republican could win those states, I'm not saying they can't, but the idea that those states are trending GOP is much more laughable than the idea that Virginia or North Carolina were trending Dem. If anything Michigan is becoming more Democratic, while Minnesota is at best remaining static.

Exactly, Minnesota might be slowly, slowly moving towards the Republicans but it would take decades before it is a tossup state and I am sure by then that trends would reverse. I am beginning to think that the only places trending towards the Republicans are in the South, Appalachia, parts of the Rust Belt, and parts of the Plains. I don't see anywhere else becoming more Republican unless they have a major change in the future(which will probably happen).

Minnesota was only +3 more Democratic than the national average this year. In a 50-50 election it would most certainly be a toss-up.

[TeePee4Prez]

The GOP's best best in PA right now is Murtha's "redneck" district.  Yeah and people are either dying or leaving there.

Holden's (whenever he leaves) and Carney's, too.

If the Democrats have any say on redistricting, I wouldn't be so sure of that.  I'd make the 16th solid GOP and include some Dem leaning areas in the 17th to make it more solid.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

To the Dems:

Montana
Missouri
Arizona
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota

To the Reps:

Indiana
North Carolina

[pogo stick]

To the Dems:

Montana
Missouri
Arizona
Georgia
North Dakota
South Dakota

To the Reps:

Indiana
North Carolina

Hackish much LOL

[hcallega]

Well there are two parts to this question. The first is on a presidential level. My thoughts are that the Democrats are generally gaining in the southwest and upper plains states (Montana, the Dakotas) because of the current issues at hand and the Democratic ideology. These areas are not "liberal", rather they are a strange libertarian-populist hybrid. The voters there generally believe in self-reliance and hard work, and feel that the government should stay out of there business. At the same time, there is also a strong sentiment that they are the little people and need someone to stand up for them. Thus they often elect senators and congressmen who stand up for farmers and the "little guy". Kent Conrad, Byron Dorgan, and Jon Tester are obvious examples. Obama and the Democrats in 2008 (and likely for the near future) are less paleoliberal (JFK, LBJ, etc.) than they are progressives. While the overall ideology is the same, the focus has shifted from such topics as ending poverty and support of labor unions to alternative energy and health care reform. Also, don't underestimate the impact of alternative energy jobs in those states shifting towards the Democrats.

However the GOP is making strong gains in certain parts of the south. These states include Louisiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas. These states fit the Democrats nicely in the past few generations, but with the growing focus on social issues, the military, and perhaps Obama's race, we have seen these areas shift towards the GOP. My personal belief is that the biggest factors are the GOP cornering the market on social conservatism and the Democrats shifting the emphasis away from creating jobs. In many ways these two areas flopped for the same reasons. The west because of the GOP loosing touch with it's small government roots, and the south with the Democrats shift away from New Deal liberalism.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

I say Missouri, NE2, Georgia, and Arizona.
Montana is too libertarian and anti-incumbent.

[Mechaman]

I say Missouri, NE2, Georgia, and Arizona.
Montana is too libertarian and anti-incumbent.

Wow, that's my thought exactly.
Montana came pretty close last time, but that was because the GOP did a very batty campaign and after the primaries Obama toned down the liberalness he had in the primaries.

Come 2012, after much government intervention into the economy, doing a 180 on the marijuana issue, a push for more gun control legislation (it's inevitable, especially with the drug wars in Mexico, prohibition only begets more prohibition), a push for "fair speech" laws, a push for the Real ID act, and policies or actions that aren't libertarian friendly are likely to cost the Montana vote unless the GOP nominates a batsh$t insane social conservative like Palin or Huck (who would be further damaged by his economic views). If there is any state that could be considered a legit "libertarian" state, it's Montana. They were the first state to pass legislation against the federal government's Real ID act, one of a number of states that passed legislation decriminalizing medical marijuana, their Democrat governor signed into law the Montana Firearms Freedom Act to take effect October 1, 2009 and makes all firearms made and kept in Montana from federal firearms regulations. There are quite a few other instances I could list......

[5280]

Montana is beautiful, lots of open land, mountains, close to Canada and low taxes.

[Vepres]

I say Missouri, NE2, Georgia, and Arizona.
Montana is too libertarian and anti-incumbent.

Wow, that's my thought exactly.
Montana came pretty close last time, but that was because the GOP did a very batty campaign and after the primaries Obama toned down the liberalness he had in the primaries.

Come 2012, after much government intervention into the economy, doing a 180 on the marijuana issue, a push for more gun control legislation (it's inevitable, especially with the drug wars in Mexico, prohibition only begets more prohibition), a push for "fair speech" laws, a push for the Real ID act, and policies or actions that aren't libertarian friendly are likely to cost the Montana vote unless the GOP nominates a batsh$t insane social conservative like Palin or Huck (who would be further damaged by his economic views). If there is any state that could be considered a legit "libertarian" state, it's Montana. They were the first state to pass legislation against the federal government's Real ID act, one of a number of states that passed legislation decriminalizing medical marijuana, their Democrat governor signed into law the Montana Firearms Freedom Act to take effect October 1, 2009 and makes all firearms made and kept in Montana from federal firearms regulations. There are quite a few other instances I could list......

I think Obama will cease to be competitive in the Dakotas as well for the same reason. He'll also lose ground in Colorado, Arizona (after favorite son effect is accounted for), and Nevada.

[Smash255]

What is it with Republicans thinking they'll win Minnesota?

Or for that matter, Michigan.....

You know what this reminds me of. Those silly Democrats thinking they can win North Carolina and Virginia... oh wait.

Well of course a Republican could win those states, I'm not saying they can't, but the idea that those states are trending GOP is much more laughable than the idea that Virginia or North Carolina were trending Dem. If anything Michigan is becoming more Democratic, while Minnesota is at best remaining static.

Exactly, Minnesota might be slowly, slowly moving towards the Republicans but it would take decades before it is a tossup state and I am sure by then that trends would reverse. I am beginning to think that the only places trending towards the Republicans are in the South, Appalachia, parts of the Rust Belt, and parts of the Plains. I don't see anywhere else becoming more Republican unless they have a major change in the future(which will probably happen).

Minnesota was only +3 more Democratic than the national average this year. In a 50-50 election it would most certainly be a toss-up.

However, its not really showing any signs of trending GOP.  You tried to make the argument that Minnesota is trending GOP in a similar manner that VA & NC has trended Dem.  That simply isn't the case.  Minnesota's move has generally been static, it trended slightly dem compared to the national average between 00-04 and trended slightly GOP against the national average between 04-08 (the jump between 00-04 was actually larger).  Also the fact that the nation moved so much (about 10 points) and some states flew left at higher rates than that it makes any GOP trend against the national average there be larger than reality.    Despite all that Minnesota was still a bit more Democratic compared to the national average in 08 than it was in 2000. 

As far as NC & VA the trend is anything but static.  Granted North Carolina is still a bit more GOP than the national average, its trend is undeniable.  The trend has even been a bit heavier in Virginia.

Also to take it a step further, NC & VA both have some fast growing areas that are trending HEAVILY Democratic.  The Republicans don't have an area like that in Minnesota.