Lancaster County, Pennsylvania

[Rob]

Lancaster is most famous as the home of many Amish, but I'm more interested in its enduring conservatism. You'd have to travel deep into Appalachia to find areas more rock-ribbed Republican than this county- at least taking history into account...

As many of you know, it was settled largely by zealous German Protestants. These people were committed conservatives from the beginning, backing first the Whigs, then the Republicans. The first time a Democratic President carried the county was in 1856- and that was Lancaster resident James Buchanan. The second (and last) time was in 1964, when LBJ beat Goldwater by eight-tenths of one percent.

Since the popular election of US Senators began, there have been 32 (non-special) such races in Pennsylvania- the Republican has won every single time. Most recently, Santorum beat Casey with 58 percent.

There have been 37 gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania since 1862; the GOP has won 36 of them. The exception reinforces the rule of Lancaster's social conservatism: in 1986, pro-life Republican Bill Scranton (III) beat pro-life Democrat Bob Casey (Sr.) 71-28 percent. In 1990, pro-life Democrat Bob Casey (Sr.) beat pro-choice Republican Barbara Hafer 73-27 percent, a swing of 89 points.

Some other indicators of religious craziness:

1994 (Governor)- Ridge 55%, Singel 23%, Luksik (Constitution) 21%
1998 (Governor)- Ridge 72%, Itkin 16%, Luksik (Constitution) 11%
2004 (US Senate)- Specter 62%, Hoeffel 27%, Clymer (Constitution) 11% [Toomey trounced Specter 57-43 in the primary, too]

With all of that said, it should be noted that the Democratic minority has quite a culturally liberal streak, perhaps a reaction to living in such a place. In presidential primaries, for example, Lancaster Dems have backed George McGovern, Gary Hart, and Barack Obama. In the 2006 Democratic senatorial primary, Casey got only 69 percent (he was at 85 percent, statewide) while Pennachio won his third-best showing at 25 percent. Polarization, I guess.

... and change may be coming to Lancaster, as supposedly the GOP registration advantage has been cut from 3-1 to less than 2-1 in recent years. In fact, the biggest Democratic swing in the state, 2004-2008, was here: Bush won 66 percent, McCain took 55 percent. Which can only be seen as a strong showing if you ignore the history.

anyone know more about this place?

[Rowan]

Phil will be commenting here in 3,2,1...

[Verily]

As an answer to the poll question, probably yes. A solid national Democratic victory in 2016 or 2020 or 2024 along the lines of 2008 would probably see the Democrat carry the county, assuming demographic trends do not reverse substantially.

[12th Doctor]

The Amish influence in Lancaster County is ofter highly exaggerated.  By the way people make it seem, you would suspect that fully half the county is Amish.  I would be surprised if the total Amish population were over 5%.  Lancaster is just a very, white-bread, classic Americana type place.  The more recent growth of migration from the Philly burbs is causing it to trend more Democratic.

[Linus Van Pelt]

With all of that said, it should be noted that the Democratic minority has quite a culturally liberal streak, perhaps a reaction to living in such a place. In presidential primaries, for example, Lancaster Dems have backed George McGovern, Gary Hart, and Barack Obama. In the 2006 Democratic senatorial primary, Casey got only 69 percent (he was at 85 percent, statewide) while Pennachio won his third-best showing at 25 percent. Polarization, I guess.

I think this is actually reflective of a certain trend within Amish/Mennonite culture. The thing about this type of area (you see the same thing in Elkhart, Indiana) is that there's only a small core of old-order Amish who actually don't use modern machinery, wear plain dress, and still speak Low German. But there's a larger group of people who participate in modern life while still being connected to that culture, who belong to more moderate Mennonite churches. These people's value system is still oriented around the main points of Mennonite religion, which are:
(1) social conservatism
(2) pacifism
(3) suspicion of modern technology and the capitalist economy.
For most people (1) wins out, which is why most of them are Republican, but (2) and (3) are also quite strong and lead to the existence of an almost hippie-ish (while still religious) subculture among a relatively small minority of Mennos. But they really have no reason at all to be a kind of DLC democrat who rejects all of (1)-(3), so that part of the spectrum gets passed over.

(None of this is to deny the point already made that Lancaster county has an influx of people who aren't connected to this scene at all).

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I spent lots of my childhood in Lancaster county and it is VERY old fashioned. The people, the restaurants, the stores.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil will be commenting here in 3,2,1...

Eh, I actually don't have much comment on this one. I don't know enough to do the in depth analysis that I do with Philly/SE PA.

Lancaster isn't the place it used to be but I don't think the Dems are gaining enough ground to make this a swing area anytime soon.

One correction (just a typo on Rob's part): Bill Scranton III was a Pro Choice (and, overall, a socially liberal) candidate in 1986. Who the hell knows what he is today since he tried running for Governor in 2006 (and probably modified his position).

Scranton was helped by having a strong Pro Life running mate - a political hero of mine - current federal judge, former State Attorney General, State Senator and State Representative Mike Fisher. Plus, I don't think Scranton made it a habit to make abortion an issue in 1986. Anyway, Casey was able to get in, make his mark as a fierce Pro Life advocate and trounce Hafer, an "out of touch," strong Pro Choice candidate. The swing, while astronomical, isn't really shocking.

[??????????]

The Amish influence in Lancaster County is ofter highly exaggerated.  By the way people make it seem, you would suspect that fully half the county is Amish.  I would be surprised if the total Amish population were over 5%.  Lancaster is just a very, white-bread, classic Americana type place.  The more recent growth of migration from the Philly burbs is causing it to trend more Democratic.

Yeah, I went there about two years ago and was like, what the hell? That place was pretty much a letdown overall.

[TeePee4Prez]

I think if infrastructure with roads and public trasnit to both Philadelphia and Baltimore/D.C. improves and more liberal voters move in like Monroe county in Northeast PA, I could see a Lancaster County flip within 10 years. 

[Tender Branson]

Yes, in the Obama-Landslide of 2012™ !

50.23 to 48.93