Dave's Redistricting App

[RBH]

I just played around with it trying to make a black-majority district in New Orleans. I had to go into Baton Rouge to do it, and even then it was only barely black-majority. Louisiana's next map is going to look interesting, to say the least.

On a 6 district map, I made a 66/27 African-American district that went as followed

New Orleans (most of it outside of parts of NW Orleans next to Jefferson Parish)
African-American Majority Parts of Jefferson Parish
St. Charles tracts near the river
Southern St. John the Baptist Parish (and river tracts)
St. James Parish (all of it)
Assumption Parish (all of it)
Ascension Parish (river, parts of Gonzales)
Iberville Parish (river)
West Baton Rouge
East Baton Rouge

and a 37% African-American 4th district too.

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I don't think Missouri has to comply with VRA. So which district did you hack into pieces?

[RBH]

You might get by with a two-way split, as long as there was no question that one of the districts was going to be the Black district.   A similar split in Kansas City probably would not be approved since you could end up with two Republican districts.

Republicans can do whatever they want to Jackson County without regard for VRA or partisanship. 5th district demographics: 68.8% White, 24.4% Black, 1.3% Asian, 5.6% Hispanic, 0.5% Native American, 0.4% other. The representative is African-American, but the constituency does not come close to any levels that would merit protection to avoid retrogression.

I don't know if you could gerrymander away the possibility of a Democratic district from the region.

that.. and if you put Eastern KC in a Republican district, it'd be 90/10 black, and vote 95/5 Democratic, and it'd be hard to cancel that out unless the district was south of KC.

Also, my Ohio map paired Schmidt and Boehner.

[RBH]

Here's some shots of my Arizona map





CD1 (Blue) is 23% Native American and 22% Hispanic
CD3 (Purple) is 46% White and 42% Hispanic
CD4 (Red) is 65% Hispanic and CD7 (Gray) is 57% Hispanic

The two new districts are CD3 and CD9, which should split between the parties. Shadegg would have his best shot in CD10.

[RBH]

In this map, Pitts and Platts are in the same district.

As for the rest... the rest of the incumbents stay in place. Shuster gets a weird district, the 6th looks more normal, the 13th is more compact, the City of Chester goes to the 7th..

any thoughts?

[RBH]

considering that the delegation is 12-7 Dem, it's slightly hard to top that by much..

but yes.. the map would likely flip the 6th and create a 13-5 delegation, at worst.

And the York/Lancaster town results make it possible that the 16th (Pitts/Platts) could be easier to flip.

The Republican seats would be the 5th, 9th, 15th, 16th, and 18th.

[RBH]

Isn't Elk County a fairly Catholic place? Dahlkemper is a pro-life Catholic, IIRC.

Plus, Erie County gave Dahlkemper the win, and Mercer (a Dahlkemper county) is completely in the 3rd.

The 12th might be a lot tougher post-Murtha, and idk how feasible it is to make a solid Republican 18th and solid Dem 12th.

Unless the 14th is made a bit more red, and the 18th gets some of those 60% McCain areas north of Pittsburgh.

[RBH]

Here's an SC gerrymander

SC-1 (blue):


SC-3 (purple):


SC-4 (red):


SC-5 (yellow):


SC-7 (gray):


Southeastern SC:


SC-2 is green, SC-6 is teal.

And stats

SC-1: 78% White, 15% Black (formerly 75/21 White)
SC-2: 68% White, 23% Black (formerly 70/26 White)
SC-3: 75% White, 19% Black (formerly 77/21 White)
SC-4: 81% White, 11% Black (formerly 76/20 White)
SC-5: 75% White, 18% Black (formerly 65/32 White)
SC-6: 56% Black, 37% White (formerly 57/41 Black)
SC-7: 54% Black, 42% White

Basically the 6th starts in Spartansburg/Greenville/Anderson and makes it's way to Columbia.

But basically the map creates a future 5/2 map on the retirement of Spratt, and it significantly weakens Spratt

[RBH]

My map is much meaner to LaTourette.



I resisted the urge to put Kucinich's district in Lake County too

Other parts of the map

[RBH]

The Boston City Council with 21 districts




District number- White%-Black%-Hispanic%-Asian%-Oth%

01- 79%-2%-6%-12%-1% (blue, SW Allston/Brighton)
02- 62%-6%-14%-16%-1% (green, Central Allston/Brighton)
03- 66%-4%-10%-18%-1% (purple, East Allston/Brighton, Boston University)
04- 77%-4%-12%-7%-1% (red, Charlestown)
05- 41%-3%-51%-4%-2% (yellow, East Boston)
06- 53%-10%-10%-26%-1% (teal, Chinatown and surrounding areas)
07- 87%-2%-4%-6%-1% (gray, Back Bay)
08- 87%-1%-9%-2%-0% (blueish, East Boston)
09- 68%-10%-10%-11%-1% (skyblue, SE of 3, NW of 16)
10- 26%-22%-47%-4%-1% (fuchsia, east of 20)
11- 90%-2%-4%-3%-1% (Green, SW Boston)
12- 42%-23%-20%-12%-2% (skyblue, East, with an extension into central)
13- 12%-53%-23%-8%-4% (pinkish, North of 14)
14- 4%-68%-21%-3%-4% (gold, NW of 17)
15- 39%-32%-26%-2%-1% (orange, S/SE of 10)
16- 32%-35%-25%-5%-3% (green, SE of 9)
17- 48%-25%-9%-16%-2% (blueish, NE of 18)
18- 18%-66%-10%-3%-2% (yellow, south, east of 19)
19- 16%-69%-12%-1%-1% (olive, south)
20- 63%-12%-15%-9%-1% (soft pink, west of 10)
21- 54%-25%-16%-3%-1% (maroon, SW corner)

Any thoughts

[RBH]

Gerrymander theater



District 1 (55948 people): 52% Hispanic, 40% White
District 2 (55795 people): 74% White, 22% Hispanic
District 3 (55461 people): 59% Hispanic, 27% White, 11% Native American
District 4 (55377 people): 85% White, 10% Hispanic

this is with the 2000 numbers, which are 56% white, 36% Hispanic, 4% Native American

the estimates would probably make a real electable majority in two Hispanic districts possible.

For those unfamiliar with the map of Yakima County, District 1 is East Yakima, District 4 is West Yakima, District 2 is rural, District 3 is rural and Hispanic.

[RBH]

here's my ultra-VRA Mississippi map

MS-1: 73/22 white
MS-2: 72/24 black
MS-3: 66/28 white
MS-4: 70/23 white

[RBH]

Ultra-VRA Alabama




AL1 (pop 665985): 76/18 white
AL2 (pop 665935): 69/25 white
AL3 (pop 665972): 76/18 white
AL4 (pop 666057): 86/6 white
AL5 (pop 665961): 75/18 white
AL6 (pop 665796): 77/16 white
AL7 (pop 666194): 79/17 black

[RBH]

I managed to create a 43% African-American district in Arkansas. Fun times

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[RBH]

for the sake of fun, you too can create a Hawaii map that has Kauai and most of Honolulu in one county, and Maui/Big Island with the rest of Honolulu in the other district.

Or, create a legal district where Honolulu isn't the majority of voters.

I don't think the Big Island has had a primary or general election where they went en bloc for someone from their island over the opposition. Kauai gave a victory to Gary Hooser in 2006 (and gave him half of their votes).

[RBH]

I'd love to see a closeup of Wayne County on that map.

Johnny, your map makes me thankful that Kenny Hulshof isn't the Governor of Missouri. And the CD6 portion of Jackson County would not be helpful to Graves. Because I live in the area that you put in Graves district and then i'd have to become a perennial candidate under that map.

You could probably put Boone in CD4 and not turn it too Dem, since you could swap that ugly northern CD6 tail to CD9 and give CD6 parts of CD4

[RBH]

this isn't a partisan gerrymander, it's a geographic gerrymander



AZ-01 (open)
total: 722321 people, 73% white, 19% Hispanic
Maricopa: 483348 people, 82% white, 11% Hispanic
Rest: 238973 people, 54% white, 34% Hispanic, 7% Native American



AZ-02 (Franks)
total: 722255 people, 74% white, 19% Hispanic
Maricopa: 431803 people, 70% white, 23% Hispanic
Rest: 290452 people, 80% white, 14% Hispanic



AZ-03 (Kirkpatrick)
total: 722183 people, 69% white, 19% Hispanic, 6% Native American
Maricopa: 433732 people, 68% white, 21% Hispanic
Rest: 288451 people, 69% white, 15% Hispanic, 12% Native American

AZ-04 (Pastor or Grivalva)
total: 722173 people, 64% Hispanic, 24% white, 7% African-American
Maricopa: 429102 people, 71% Hispanic, 15% white, 10% African-American
Rest: 293071 people, 54% Hispanic, 37% white

AZ-05 (open)
total: 722278 people, 56% white, 21% Hispanic, 17% Native American
Maricopa: 432406 people, 66% white, 24% Hispanic
Rest: 289872 people, 42% white, 39% Native American, 17% Hispanic

AZ-06 (Flake)
total: 722230 people, 71% white, 22% Hispanic
Maricopa: 437737 people, 68% white, 25% Hispanic
Rest: 284493 people, 74% white, 18% Hispanic



AZ-07 (Pastor or Grivalva)
total: 722225 people, 53% Hispanic, 36% white
Maricopa: 434442 people, 50% Hispanic, 39% white, 6% African-American
Rest: 287783 people, 59% Hispanic, 32% white

AZ-08 (Giffords?)
total: 722228 people, 66% white, 22% Hispanic
Maricopa: 437693 people, 66% white, 21% Hispanic
Rest: 284535 people, 65% white, 22% Hispanic

AZ-09 (Mitchell)
total: 722243 people, 57% white, 31% Hispanic
Maricopa: 434564 people, 52% white, 35% Hispanic
Rest: 287679 people, 65% white, 25% Hispanic






I didn't actually intend to almost split Tucson between 6 districts. It just happened.

In case you didn't notice, I intended to make every district have a majority of it's population reside in Maricopa County.

[RBH]

I created a VRA-free Dem-friendly map for Texas, here are the numbers, but I need to assign all the random small precincts and this might force the alteration of some of the districts.

CD1 (Gohmert): 69/31 McCain
CD2 (Poe): 64/35 McCain
CD3 (Johnson): 60/39 McCain
CD4 (Hall): 70/29 McCain
CD5 (Hensarling): 55/44 Obama
CD6 (Barton): 65/34 McCain
CD7 (Culberson): 56/43 McCain
CD8 (Brady): 74/25 McCain
CD9 (Green): 55/44 Obama
CD10 (McCaul): 66/33 McCain
CD11 (Conaway and Neugebauer): 72/27 McCain
CD12 (Granger): 51/49 Obama
CD13 (Thornberry): 76/23 McCain
CD14 (Paul): 60/39 Obama
CD15 (Hinojosa): 62/37 Obama
CD16 (Reyes): 65/34 Obama
CD17 (Edwards): 54/45 McCain (still need to put 29K more in this district, The Chet Edwards Wilderness Preserve, 23% African-American)
CD18 (Jackson-Lee): 74/25 Obama (42% Hispanic, 32% Black)
CD19 (Marchant): 62/37 McCain
CD20 (Gonzalez): 57/42 Obama
CD21 (Smith): 65/34 McCain
CD22 (Olson): 60/39 McCain
CD23 (Rodriguez): 56/43 Obama
CD24 (open, same general location as current CD24): 51/48 Obama
CD25 (Doggett): 56/42 Obama
CD26 (open, random East Texas): 67/32 McCain
CD27 (Ortiz): 68/31 Obama
CD28 (Cuellar): 56/43 Obama
CD29 (Green): 71/28 Obama (58% Hispanic)
CD30 (Johnson): 67/32 McCain (36% African-American, 32% White, 28% Hispanic)
CD31 (Carter): 62/37 Obama (Eastern Travis and Williamson Counties for the win)
CD32 (Sessions and Burgess): 50/49 Obama
CD33 (open, San Angelo/Abilene): 69/30 McCain
CD34 (open, wrapping around Chet's district): 69/30 McCain
CD35 (open, lots of SE coastal Texas): 62/37 McCain
CD36 (open, Republican parts of Tarrant, assorted counties near DFW): 71/28 McCain

Still gotta hammer out some population problems.

Aside from getting sued, this map could always lead to Granger picking the 36th over the 12th.

But 16 Obama CDs out of 36 isn't all that bad

[RBH]

here's the current state of the Chet Edwards Wilderness Preserve (in dark blue):



TX22 (which is actually open) is in brown (Galveston, South Harris), CD25 and CD31 split Travis in a way that there are two Obama districts coming out of Travis County. CD7 and CD29 have similar colors.

Here's the DFW map

[RBH]

Philadelphia if it had 17 council districts instead of 10 districts and 7 at-large



District 01 (blue): 83% Black, 12% White
District 02 (green): 77% Black, 12% White, 7% Asian
District 03 (purple): 59% Black, 32% White, 5% Asian
District 04 (red): 49% Black, 36% White, 11% Asian
District 05 (yellow): 64% White, 15% Asian, 13% Black
District 06 (teal): 53% Black, 33% White, 7% Asian, 6% Hispanic
District 07 (gray): 86% Black, 9% Hispanic
District 08 (lilac): 62% White, 31% Black
District 09 (cyan): 91% Black, 5% White
District 10 (pink): 88% Black, 5% White
District 11 (lime): 34% Black, 33% Hispanic, 17% White, 15% Asian
District 12 (skyblue): 72% Hispanic, 16% Black, 9% White
District 13 (peach): 66% White, 16% Hispanic, 13% Black
District 14 (gold): 76% White, 10% Black, 9% Hispanic
District 15 (orange): 72% White, 10% Hispanic, 8% Black
District 16 (greenish): 82% White, 7% Asian, 5% Black, 5% Hispanic
District 17 (darkblue): 78% White, 11% Black, 5% Hispanic

Here's the map by race