Dave's Redistricting App

[Badger]

Here's the map of Ohio I made.  All districts are have a deviation from the ideal population of less than 1000.  I used the new estimates for population and made 16 districts since Ohio is projected to lose 2 after the next census.



Blue: A safer district for Dreihaus-D (OH-1)
Dark Green: Schmidt-R (OH-2), Jordan-R (OH-4), and Austria-R (OH-7) are pitted against each other.  Jordan would likely move to represent the red district.  Austria defeats the reviled Schmidt in the primary
Magenta: Turner-R (OH-3) gets a slightly less friendly district and could face a stiffer challenge.
Red: As I mentioned, Jordan probably moves into this open seat.
Yellow: An open seat which Latta-R (OH-5) may move in on.  This district is more Dem friendly than the current OH-5 but is probably still around R+5 or more.
Blue-Green: This is an open seat and would probably be hotly contested despite the Republican lean.  Wilson-D (OH-6) may move in here giving the Dems a semi-incumbent advantage.
Gray: Boccieri-D (OH-16) Gets a much safer district and cruises to re-election.
Purple: Boner Boehner remains safe.
Cyan: Kaptur-D (OH-9) faces off against Latta-R (OH-5) in a contest she'd almost certainly win.  As mentioned earlier, Latta will likely move to the yellow district.
Pink: I don't think I've take the elf Kucinich out of this district.  Safe Dem regardless.
Yellow-Green: Fudge-D (OH-11) is safe but the district drops below 50% black.
Lilac: Tiberi-R (OH-12) trades most of his black constituents for suburban whites and becomes considerably safer.
Peach: Sutton-D (OH-13) sees a dramatic change in her district but remains safe
Bronze: LaTourette-R (OH-14) faces off against Ryan-D (OH-17) in what will surely be the most contested race in the state.  However, the district has a distinct Democratic tilt to it which will probably put Ryan over the top.
Orange:: I think Kilroy-D (OH-15) is still in this district and it becomes much easier for her to hold.
Neon Green: This district pits Space-D (OH-18) against Wilson-D (OH-6) but Wilson may move.  This district is much more Dem friendly than Space's current district and he should have little trouble holding it even though it probably leans Rep.

I think you missd a good oppoortunity not connecting Montgomery and Clark counties, or at least greater Springfield. Turner would likely still be safe, but the district turns notably more Democratic whil maintaining contiguity. Also I think you're throwing in the towel way too fast on Tiberi's district. It's an Obama district rapidly growing Democratic. In a good year where Franklin County Dems aren't focusing on getting Kilroy (re) elected this district will flip.

[Badger]

Interesting map, JL. A couple comments/questions:

Would the green Cinci district really be that much a swing district? At first glance it appears a lot of GOP voting area from the current OH-1 has been removed for a more Cinci-dominated seat. What's the likely PVI?

I'm not sure that magenta version of OH-2 is quite that strong GOP. Although the new territory added still generally tends Republican, other than Highland and Gallia the PVI of the added areas are notably closer to even than most of the current OH-2. Schmidt could have increased trouble holding this district (though of course anyone but Jean Schmidt should make either version of OH-2 safe GOP).


Any chance Montgomery and Clark counties could be mostly combined for a swingish Dayton-Springfield district? Both counties now have a slight GOP PVI lean I think (or about even with Montgomery). I suspect both counties combined would be too many voters for a single district, so it may depend on which GOP suburbs would/could be cut to bring the district down to appropriate numbers. I'm wondering if that can be done to include both cities and still maintain a competitive district?