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Verily
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« on: June 11, 2009, 09:40:11 PM »
« edited: June 11, 2009, 09:45:11 PM by Verily »

South Carolina on the current population estimates with seven districts, two of which are black-majority (purple and gray). All are within 1,000 of ideal; all but purple are within 200 of ideal (purple is about 600 oversized).



The gerrymander was even nastier before I cleaned it up as I realized I didn't need quite as rigorous a gerrymander as I had originally done to achieve two black-majority districts.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2009, 11:45:31 AM »

Here's Oregon on six districts, using new population estimates. The growth around Portland means a lot more than a full district fits into Multnomah County, which made for some interesting splits. I tried to do a district running along the coast to group those relatively similar communities together, while the outer Multnomah and Clackamas district takes in Bend, which doesn't fit well with rural Oregon. I'm not sure what the partisan split of the map would be, but I would guess 5 Democrats and 1 Republican. Maybe 4-2.



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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2009, 12:23:49 PM »

I should mention that all districts are within 1,000 of ideal.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2009, 12:39:50 PM »

Massachusetts on 9 districts with current estimates. For some reason, the program makes a weird error involving Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, but the boundaries should be clear anyway.


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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2009, 11:49:55 PM »
« Edited: July 16, 2009, 12:05:10 AM by Verily »

Here's my take on Missouri. Lacy Clay's district is ever-so-slightly plurality black (by just under 2000 people).



Luetkemeyer and Graves, being freshmen, get tossed together in MO-06. MO-04 now stretches along the Missouri River to take in the similar communities along its banks instead of combining them with the ultra-rural counties surrounding them. MO-05 is a mere 21% black despite being represented by a black congressman, but he should be in no danger. MO-03 stretches out into rural-ish areas a bit but not so far as to make Carnahan vulnerable. It's also bleached down even further, losing most of its previous black-majority precincts in St. Louis City and down to a mere 4% black, hardly above the Republican districts. Overall, this map makes three safe Democratic districts (MO-01, MO-03 and MO-05), one district that would be competitive/lean Republican but has a popular Democratic incumbent (MO-04) and four safe Republican districts (MO-02, MO-06, MO-07 and MO-08).
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2009, 10:44:28 PM »

I don't know why I thought Graves was a freshman. Oh well, I like my map a lot better anyway. It's much neater. Although I realize now that I used the old population figures rather than the new estimates, so it's not a great map. Still, I could probably make up all of the differences by fiddling around with the split counties.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2009, 01:02:52 AM »
« Edited: July 18, 2009, 01:15:21 AM by Verily »

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North
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Verily
Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2009, 12:25:41 PM »

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North

If Reichert's district has a higher proportion of Pierce to King now (which I think it does, it looks so), he's safer. He won King 51-49 in 2008 but Pierce 59-41.

It's more than that, though. The district loses some of his strongholds in King like Sammamish and Medina while gaining somewhat more urban parts of King and Pierce. It also loses Bellevue, though, which is I assume the most Democratic part of current WA-08.

The precinct maps of King and Pierce Counties that Alcon did back in November/December would be useful here.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2009, 08:45:55 AM »

Massa's district could definitely be made more safe by switching Steuben and maybe parts (all?) of Chemung for parts/all of Ontario, which only barely voted for McCain. That would also make the district boundaries neater. Unless Massa lives in Steuben/Chemung? (Ontario was 49-49; Steuben was 41-58 while Chemung was 49-50.)
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2009, 12:14:29 AM »
« Edited: July 29, 2009, 12:21:10 AM by Verily »

All right, New York!

NY-01: Outer Suffolk
Largely unchanged, border with NY-02 neatened up

NY-02: Inner Suffolk
Also largely unchanged, borders neatened up

NY-03: Nassau South
In an effort to actually combine communities of interest in Nassau instead of the pell-mell gerrymandering of the current map, I reorganized the districts into a South Shore and a North Shore district. This one covers the South Shore now.

NY-04: Nassau North
Similar to Nassau South, this district takes in the North Shore of Nassau County. The relatively slow growth of Nassau County means this district expands while NY-05 contracts into Queens.

NY-05: Queens North East
This district contracts into Queens, and now contains Flushing, Bayside, College Point and a handful of other outer Queens neighborhoods. Plurality white (42%) with a very substantial Asian minority (33%)

NY-06: Queens South East
Containing Jamaica, Far Rockaway and a few adjacent areas in Nassau, this district is the first majority-black district at exactly 50%. Whites are only 18%, though; Hispanics are 16% and Asians 11%. The boundaries of this CD have been neatened up somewhat.

NY-07: Queens North West
Containing Jackson Heights, Corona, Astoria, Long Island City and numerous other inner Queens neighborhoods, this district has withdrawn entirely out of the Bronx and therefore declined slightly in Hispanic population, but it’s still strongly plurality Hispanic at 43%, to 24% white and 23% Asian.

NY-08: I’d rather not talk about this one.
The result of my neatening up in New York City was that Anthony Weiner’s district disappeared and reappeared in the Bronx and Westchester. Also, because I wanted to create a black-plurality district around the Bronx, Mount Vernon and Yonkers (NY-17, below), this district ends up misshapen. If one were not trying to create a black-plurality district, it would be easy enough to neaten things up substantially by moving one of the two districts entirely into the Bronx and the other northward into Westchester.

NY-09: Brooklyn South and Rockaway
Containing Coney Island, Gravesend and Rockaway Point, this district withdraws entirely from non-Rockaway Queens and becomes a solidly Brooklyn-based district. It’s also probably not strongly Democratic, although I can’t imagine it actually electing a Republican. (It’s probably D+8 or so.)

NY-10: Brooklyn East
Containing East Flatbush, New Lots, Canarsie, Cypress Hills and a few adjacent areas in Queens, this is the second black-majority district, at 54%.

NY-11: Brooklyn Central
Containing Bed-Stuy and the neighborhoods adjacent to Prospect Park, this is the third black-majority district, at 56%.

NY-12: Brooklyn North and the Lower East Side
The bulk of this district’s population is in Brooklyn, but it does make forays into both Manhattan and Queens to take in extra population in these boroughs and to achieve a Hispanic plurality. Unlike the extremely gerrymandered monstrosity that preceded it, however, this version is only 38% Hispanic, and 35% white, which may be objectionable.

NY-13: Staten Island and Brooklyn South West
More or less the same as the current district, maybe marginally more Democratic than previous due to a rearrangement of which Brooklyn areas are in the district.

NY-14: Manhattan South and Central
This is the Silk Stocking District reimagined. The old version contained a big chunk of Queens in Astoria and LIC; this version is entirely within Manhattan and takes in the wealthy neighborhoods in Lower Manhattan as well as the ultra-liberal neighborhoods along the Hudson. Since Anthony Weiner’s district went *poof*, he probably inherits this one from Carolyn Maloney.

NY-15: Manhattan North
Charlie Rangel will eventually lose a primary as demographics shift; that is inevitable. This district is only 27% black, and even with valiant (abandoned) gerrymandering attempts I couldn’t get blacks to second-place status, let alone a plurality. (Whites are 32% in this CD; Hispanics are 34%.) This district contracts southward slightly, now taking in all of the Upper West Side but losing part of Inwood.

NY-16: Bronx Southwest
Containing Inwood in Manhattan as well as the southwestern neighborhoods of the Bronx, this district is overwhelmingly Hispanic at 66%, and only 4% white, probably the lowest percentage in the nation. (It’s 25% black.) Otherwise, it’s not terribly exciting and little changed, other than the new foray into Manhattan and the loss of some areas of the Bronx to…

NY-17: Bronx North and Mount Vernon
This surprisingly compact district has a black plurality. It’s a reimagining of Eliot Engel’s district to focus on the black population concentrated in extreme southern Westchester and the central and northern Bronx. At 35% black and 34% Hispanic, it might not elect a black Congressman, but it probably would. Whites make up only 22% of the district; they live mostly in Riverdale and around Van Cortlandt Park.

NY-18: Tarrytown and Rockland
This district is shoved further upstate, losing big chunks of Westchester for more of Rockland and a small part of Orange. Despite the change, it’s still solidly Democratic; the Westchester portion is the bulk of the district and voted around 60% for Obama.

NY-19: Hudson Valley East
John Hall breathes a sigh of relief. Containing Democratic-leaning Dutchess and Columbia Counties as well as the most Democratic portions of Orange County, this district easily makes up for the Republican lean of exurban Putnam County to make a reasonably secure district for Hall. D+3 would be my guess.


NY-20: Adirondacks
This district migrates northward dramatically, taking in many of the rural counties previously associated with NY-23 (indeed, it may be considered a renumbering of NY-23). However, it contains Scott Murphy’s strongholds in Washington and Warren Counties and loses some Republican areas to the west. Overall, it is probably around D+1, and it would be a fierce battle between Murphy and Scozzafava, assuming the latter wins the NY-23 special election.

NY-21: Albany North and Schenectady
The splitting of Albany is regrettable but a geographic necessity to reach the required population for NY-22. Nonetheless, this district is reasonably compact and reasonably Democratic, probably similar to its current partisanship or only a slight decline. It moves northward and eastward, losing much of Albany County and areas beyond it while gaining the rest of Rensselaer and most of Saratoga.

NY-22: Albany South and Hudson Valley West
This district loses its ridiculous extension to Ithaca and instead takes in more rural areas. Anchored around Kingston and also containing some very Democratic suburbs of Albany and even a part of the city itself, it’s still not likely to go Republican, although maybe more so than previously. D+5?

NY-23: Syracuse and Rome
Okay, this district bears almost no resemblance to the old NY-23. It takes in Syracuse and some surrounding counties, but is overall reasonably solidly Democratic due to Syracuse. Likely D+3 or so.

NY-24: Ithaca and Binghamton
It’s pretty much impossible to draw a Republican district containing Ithaca; this district is no different. It’s probably the most Democratic of the non-urban upstate districts, although that still means it’s only about D+4.

NY-25: Rochester
Yawn. This district could have been drawn just in Monroe County, but either way it’s solidly Democratic. Louise Slaughter lives in this district although it little resembles her previous district.

NY-26: Southern Tier
a.k.a the Burned Over District, a.k.a Republican-land. Not much to say about this one other than that Lee is very safe.

NY-27: Buffalo South
Less solid for Higgins due to gaining Cattaraugus County and losing more of Buffalo, but he should still be safe in this D+4 or so district.

NY-28: Buffalo North and Niagara Falls
I think the Buffalo parts of this district anchor it as Democratic, but I’m not certain. Well over half of the district is in Erie County, much of that in Buffalo, but the rest of the district leans Republican; although it resembles Louise Slaughter’s district, this one is a very different beast. I’m guessing D+2 or so.




Also, could someone explain to me how you do area maps?
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2009, 03:18:57 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2009, 03:31:04 PM by Verily »

Gerrymandering Maryland is extremely fun. This map should make Kratovil reasonably safe (or, rather, not really vulnerable), as his district would be at least D+1. It now includes very Democratic Annapolis proper and some very Democratic areas in MontCo. Ruppersberger probably becomes less safe, but not radically so.

Overall, the new map relies on unpacking MD-08, which is now still D+10 or so but not the ultra-Democratic bastion it was before, and taking advantage of the Democratic areas in Frederick and Washington counties that previously went unexploited. That allowed MD-03 to completely reorient, taking in large, heavily Democratic areas of MontCo to allow for more freedom to spread the Baltimore and Annapolis Democratic vote around among the other districts.

MD-07 is 50% black; MD-04 is 54% black.



The two islands in the southeast are in Kratovil's district. I didn't fill them in for the map because the program doesn't handle islands well in its rendering. Also, Maryland has the wackiest census tracts I've seen so far.

Edit: I notice Ruppersberger has been drawn out of his district. That explains why the district has the weird northern arm. Oh, well, that would be easy enough to fix by fiddling around with the MD-03/MD-02 border. Same goes for Donna Edwards, but I really only rearranged how PG County was split to make the MD-04/MD-05 border look better. MD-04 would actually be more heavily black if it included her home town and dropped College Park and environs to MD-05.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2009, 07:06:06 PM »
« Edited: August 31, 2009, 07:07:59 PM by Verily »

Here's Maryland de-gerrymandered. This map is actually awful for the Democrats because their vote is very "naturally packed" in Maryland. The map results in three moderately Republican districts (R+5 to R+10), one moderately Democratic district, and four ultra-Democratic districts (D+20 or more). A Republican gerrymander could probably make the Baltimore County district at least vulnerable.

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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2009, 02:40:56 PM »

Here's my take on Colorado. Basically, Betsy Markey is less vulnerable, John Salazar is more vulnerable, Jared Polis is less safe but still safe, and Mike Coffman is now a little bit vulnerable. CO-07, CO-01 and CO-05 are largely unaffected in partisanship. Although CO-07 changes its shape dramatically, few actual voters have been moved; CO-05 does actually lose a lot of voters to the west and picks them back up to the east. CO-01 loses the northern extension of Denver and the inner southern Arapahoe County suburbs and instead has some eastern Arapahoe County suburbs that are otherwise difficult to pair with any district without some contortion. Generally, I think this map is very fair, given the population shifts.


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E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2009, 08:56:45 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2009, 09:06:35 PM by Verily »

I have two version of Virginia to present to you tonight.

The first was basically just cleaning up the current map, with the only major changes happening in the Hampton Roads area (basically, Norfolk and Hampton are now completely in Nye's district except for one voting precinct in Hampton, and Virginia beach is almost entirely in Forbes's district in order to both make both safer and allow Forbes's district to contract into just the Hampton Roads area and not snake over to the Richmond suburbs for population. (Also, I have no idea where in Chesapeake Forbes lives, so he may have ended up in Nye's district, although that would be easy to fix.)

The second hit me after I finished the first version, when I realized what a golden opportunity those Democratic-voting counties in eastern rural Virginia were for shoring up Tom Perriello and when I was annoyed with how long and spindly Bob Goodlatte's district had become. It only rearranges three of the eleven districts, but it makes Perriello, well, not safe, but reasonably secure in a district that may have voted for Obama, and it makes Goodlatte's district much more compact.

For those interested in the splitting of Roanoke City, I made the probably safe assumption that Goodlatte does not live in one of the majority-black precincts, all of which I gave to Boucher.




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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2009, 09:21:19 PM »

There are precincts in Newport News that are bigger than and as Republican as Poquoson. York's not all that Republican, either. Nye's district is easily D+8 on my map; you forget that it includes all of Norfolk and almost all of Hampton.

Anyway, you appear to have left Fredericksburg out of Perriello's district in favor of Danville and Henry County, but those areas are trending away from the Democrats while the Fredericksburg area is becoming much friendlier to the Democrats, especially Perriello-types (while Perriello is really too intellectual to get much traction in southern/southwestern VA).
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2009, 10:35:49 PM »

Given the results of the 2008 election I wonder if VRA districts are really even necessary in some parts of the country.  I'd wager that in most places a minority candidate wouldn't have too much trouble getting elected in a 35% minority district.  If the minority votes as a bloc for their candidate it would take less than 25% of the white vote to reach 50%.  I honestly think we've reached a point where VRA districts don't really need to be majority-minority districts anymore.  Perhaps 35% is a little optimistic but I think we could realistically move the "requirement" from 50% to 40% and there would be no decrease in the number of minority Congresspeople.  In fact, I would be slightly surprised if there wasn't an increased number of minorities in Congress if states were permitted to draw their districts that way.  Instead of packing all the minorities into one district they could be spread a little thinner giving them more opportunities for success.

But it would decrease the level to which such seats are fiefdoms, and you can bet the CBC would oppose it tooth and nail.
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2009, 11:02:33 AM »

Quigley's district could be made Hispanic-majority with just a little bit of fiddling along the border with Gutierrez's district.
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« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2009, 08:33:08 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2009, 07:54:42 PM by Verily »

Georgia has been on the app for a while, but it didn't have up-to-date population data available until some time recently. Without further ado, Georgia with 14 districts:



GA-01: Loses its remaining urban areas for more white rural areas. Ultra-Republican although historically Democratic.
GA-02: This district is more black than previously due to population changes, rising to 46% black (and 47% white). Therefore considerably more Democratic.
GA-03: Outer Atlanta suburbs to the west and rural western Georgia, safe Republican
GA-04: Remains just over 50% black, loses a lot of territory but expands into increasingly black areas of Gwinnett
GA-05: No longer black-majority despite containing the city of Atlanta, although still black plurality (this is combated below, when GA-13 rises to majority black and the new GA-14 is majority black). Takes in the most liberal whites in the state anyway, easily safely Democratic
GA-06: Atlanta suburbs to the north, very safe Republican
GA-07: Rearranges somewhat, now outer Atlanta suburbs to the south and east as well as rural white areas between Atlanta and the Black Belt. Safely Republican.
GA-08: Up to 37% black from 32.6% black, this district loses its extension to the Atlanta exurbs but gains Athens and some eastern Black Belt counties, making it more Democratic but still around R+4 at least (Edit: Actually, just did the calcs, and this district voted 51.16% for Obama, making it only about R+2. Not bad.)
GA-09: Contracts into the northeastern Atlanta suburbs, very safely Republican
GA-10: Loses Athens for more of rural northern Georgia, very Republican
GA-11: Shifts northward to get Dalton but mostly the same, northeastern exurban Atlanta and rural northeastern Georgia
GA-12: Gains the rest of Augusta and Savannah as well as Hinesville, loses some rural white areas (as well as couple of rural black areas), overall more Democratic than previous and moderately safe
GA-13: Shifts eastward to take in the expanding black population in the southern and southeastern Atlanta exurbs, now majority black at 51%
GA-14: A new district containing the black areas southwest and west of Atlanta, majority black at 50%

There's a bug with the voting districts in Cobb County, but GA-14 is definitely contiguous.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #18 on: December 25, 2009, 12:12:15 AM »
« Edited: December 25, 2009, 12:48:13 AM by Verily »

For fun, here's a detailed breakdown on a Democratic gerrymander for New York (eliminating Pete King while keeping all Democrats safe-ish and solidifying holds on the marginal upstate seats).

NY-01 (Suffolk Outer): 53% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-02 (Suffolk Inner): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-03 (Nassau North and Suffolk North): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-04 (Nassau South): 56% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-05 (Queens Southeast and Nassau Central): 76% Obama, 24% McCain; 50% black

The final district is the key to this gerrymander; the very Republican areas of central Nassau County get combined with the black areas of Jamaica, Laurelton and other parts of Southeast Queens, which far outvote them in NY-05 and leave the rest of the Long Island districts at or above Obama's national numbers. King probably could survive in NY-03 (it's not possible to draw the districts in such a way as to guarantee his defeat), but he would be much more vulnerable.



NY-06 (Queens South Central and Brooklyn South): 63% Obama, 36% McCain
NY-07 (Queens East, Bronx Southeast and West and Manhattan Northwest): 81% Obama, 18% McCain; 52% Hispanic
NY-08 (Queens East Central and Bronx South): 88% Obama, 12% McCain; 50% Hispanic
NY-09 (Queens Central and Northwest): 71% Obama, 28% McCain
NY-10 (Queens North Central and Brooklyn Northeast): 85% Obama, 15% McCain; 57% Hispanic
NY-11 (Brooklyn Southeast): 79% Obama, 21% McCain; 51% black
NY-12 (Brooklyn Central): 82% Obama, 18% McCain, 51% black
NY-13 (Staten Island and Brooklyn Southwest): 52% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-14 (Brooklyn Northwest and Manhattan South): 87% Obama, 12% McCain
NY-15 (Manhattan Central): 82% Obama, 17% McCain
NY-16 (Manhattan North and Bronx Northeast): 94% Obama, 6% McCain; 50% black

Some shuffling around of the Hispanic districts makes the Staten Island district a little bit more Democratic by including some ultra-Hispanic areas near Greenwood. The two Brooklyn black districts share the ultra-Republican areas of South-central Brooklyn between them, diluting it completely. A new black-majority district, NY-16, is created by combining Harlem with the Northwest Bronx and the city of Mount Vernon; this is sort of Rangel's district rejigged.

NY-07 and NY-08 are nasty pieces of work, drawn in that way to create an extra Hispanic district. Originally, I had the South Bronx and Washington Heights together, and then the Southwest Bronx and the Queens areas together, but that made a 66% Hispanic and a 36% Hispanic district (more or less the way it is now) when two majority Hispanic districts were definitely possible. Of course, NE Queens residents could claim disenfranchisement on this map because they do not form a majority in either district. Partisan considerations don't really matter as even the 36% Hispanic district was only 22% white (substantially Asian and black, obviously) and something around 70+% for Obama.

Only in Manhattan can a 65% white district be 82% for Obama and also be the wealthiest CD (probably by far) in the country. NY-15 is basically the Upper East and Upper West Sides, although it did add East Harlem for population and to keep the Hispanics out of the new black majority district, NY-16.



NY-17 (Westchester East and Bronx East Central): 60% Obama, 39% McCain
NY-18 (Westchester West, Bronx Northwest and Rockland): 59% Obama, 40% McCain
NY-19 (Hudson Valley West): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-20 (Hudson Valley East): 54% Obama, 44% McCain

Not a whole lot to say. Putnam County is actually not cracked on this map; every town in the Hudson Valley East district voted for Obama, while the areas in the Westchester district voted for McCain. Eliot Engel is pretty much the only Democrat who becomes substantially less safe, but 59% Obama is nothing to scoff at.



NY-21 (Albany and Schenectady): 56% Obama, 42% McCain
NY-22 (Adirondacks): 53% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-23 (Utica and Syracuse East): 54% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-24 (Ithaca, Binghampton and Syracuse South): 54% Obama, 45% McCain

Pretty boring, not much going on. NY-22 obviously has a huge Republican registration advantage but is stronger for Obama than the previous NY-23 and thus shouldn't be too hard for Owens to hold in the near-term.



NY-25 (Rochester East and Syracuse West): 57% Obama, 42% McCain
NY-26 (Rochester West and Buffalo North): 58% Obama, 41% McCain
NY-27 (Southern Tier): 43% Obama, 56% McCain
NY-28 (Buffalo South): 56% Obama, 42% McCain

The Republicans are packed into NY-27, the only McCain-voting district in the state, which is now very safe for Lee. It's pretty much impossible to get rid of him. You could try, but the resultant map would put all four districts in danger for the Democrats (around 51-52% Obama), really not worth it. Every Democratic district in the state was drawn to be more Democratic than the nation as a whole except the outer Suffolk and Staten Island districts, where that just wasn't possible geographically, and doing any districts less than that is a huge risk.



Maps to be inserted in a moment. Bah, the maps aren't working. Anyway, descriptions should suffice. Images are now showing up. Enjoy.
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« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2010, 07:59:02 PM »

That island district is really wacky. There's no way to get from Mt Desert Island to the rest of the district, but there are roads connecting Mt Desert Island to the mainland. Same goes for Deer Isle/Stonington.
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« Reply #20 on: January 11, 2010, 02:02:41 PM »

Also, the only way to get both new population data and the electoral data for NY is to load Maryland first, select both, then switch to New York. A pain.
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« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2010, 06:16:31 PM »

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #22 on: January 12, 2010, 03:17:59 AM »

Can anyone create two black-majority districts in Virginia?

Definitely not possible. Creating one already requires severe gerrymandering.

Actually I tried it and was successful. Basically what you do is you take the black-majority precincts (and ones with a very large black minority) in Virginia Beach, Hampton, Newport News, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake.  That gets you one black-majority district. Then you take the black majority precincts in Richmond and Henrico County, and precincts with a very large black minroity in Chesterfield, Nottoway, Dinwiddle, Lunenburg, Mecklenburg, Halifax, and Charlotte Countries and add the city of Danville. Also, you should stretch this district to Lynchburg or even Roanoke (even though just Lynchburg is fine) and you should get a second black-majority district.

Plurality, or majority? I have no doubt that you could get two 45% black districts that are 43% white. But 50% black seems highly unlikely.
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Cuivienen
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Political Matrix
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« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2010, 11:53:42 PM »

Here's my Dem gerrymander of Virginia from a few months back for Rochambeau. Of course, this is before Deeds totally collapsed, and I don't think there's anything that can save Boucher. The best possible occurrence would be 8-3, but Frank Wolf isn't going anywhere until he retires, and the Republicans are still alive and kicking in Loudoun and Prince William.

No time wasted...



Click to embiggen.

VA-01 (teal, Rob Wittman - R) - Wittman's district is reconfigured to stretch from the Northern Neck (eastern edge) to the West Virginia border, taking in the exurbs of Northern Virginia along the way. Safe Republican district.
VA-02 (dark green, Glenn Nye - D) - I excised the Republican portions of Virginia Beach, added all of Norfolk and minority-heavy parts of Chesapeake and Suffolk. The district is 35% black now and probably voted pretty strongly for Obama, I'd guess in the high-50s.
VA-03 (dark blue, Bobby Scott - D) - Not much changed here. Removed Norfolk, added Petersburg and some more territory around Richmond. 53% black.
VA-04 (purple, Randy Forbes - R) - Pretty much all the population here is Chesapeake, Virginia Beach, and Chesterfield. The district is solidly Republican now.
VA-05 (red, Tom Perriello - D) - The heavily-Republican southwestern part of the district is removed, and instead it stretches both down southeast to the Greensville/Emporia area and northeast to Caroline/Essex/King & Queen, both Democratic areas. Also included most of Lynchburg, not a heavily Democratic city but friendlier territory than the Bedford area. District probably voted for Obama in the low-50s. Now 27% black.
VA-06 (light green, Bob Goodlatte - R) - Picked up the aforementioned Bedford area, and lost Lynchburg and the Democratic parts of Roanoke. Safe Republican.
VA-07 (yellow, Eric Cantor - R) - Instead of stretching up almost to NoVa, the district now spreads east to the Jamestown/York/Williamsburg historic triangle. Sorry, Williamsburg.
VA-08 (grey, Jim Moran - D) - Alexandria, part of Arlington, and eastern Fairfax. Safe D. Interestingly, this district is only 54% white.
VA-09 (magenta, Rick Boucher - D) - Poor Rick Boucher, can't do much for him. Added the Democratic parts of Roanoke and snaked up to Bath County, so Creigh Deeds could give it a try in the future if he felt like it.
VA-10 (light blue, Frank Wolf - R) - Wondering about the population growth in NoVa? Well, this district now consists solely of Loudoun, Prince William, Clarke, and a sliver of Fairfax. Probably won by Obama with around 55%, Wolf would be able to hold it but it would be a tossup (slightly Dem-leaning) in an open seat.
VA-11 (light purple, Gerry Connolly - D) - western Fairfax, Falls Church, part of Arlington, Manassas/Manassas Park and one or two precincts of Prince William. Safe Dem seat, probably 60%+ for Obama.

Is there a law that says Congressmen need to live in their CD's, or do you just need to live in the states they're representing? If they just need to live in the state, then Roanoke can be given to either Boucher or Perriello since it is a heavily Democratic city. Also, here's what I would do to get rid of Frank Wolf. I'd make the 10th ditrict cover all of Loundoun, the cities of Arlington, Falls Church, and Vienna, and some other Democratic areas in western Fairfax. That will put Moran and Wolf in the same district but Moran should win since this new district will vote over 60% for Obama. You then give most of Fairfax Country to the 11th district. Then, you give Alexandria, what's left of Fairfax County, Prince William County, and Fredericksburg and some surrounding surburbs to the new 8th district. This should produce three solidly Democratic districts in Northern Virginia. BTW, is it possible for the 3rd to take some more black areas from the 2nd district (not too much through) and then give Petersburg and/or Hopewell to Perriello? This should help shore up his district.

BTW, Johnny, I previously commented on your Indiana Republican gerrymander on how to improve it. I'm not sure if you read what I wrote.

Johnny's map puts the black parts of Roanoke into Boucher's district. The white parts of Roanoke, where Goodlatte lives, voted for McCain anyway.
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Cuivienen
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Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

« Reply #24 on: January 23, 2010, 07:36:58 PM »

Looking at California, it might be possible to construct an Asian-majority district in the San Gabriel Valley as well as one in the San Jose area. Anyone want to try?
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