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March 09, 2021, 01:52:07 AM

  Talk Elections
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  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
  Dave's Redistricting App
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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 273843 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #125 on: June 21, 2009, 05:17:28 PM »
« edited: July 20, 2009, 08:09:53 AM by JohnnyLongtorso »

And here's New Jersey with 12:



My intention was to put two Republicans in one district, and the only way to do that was to eliminate one of Frelinghuysen, Garrett, and Lance, and Frelinghuysen got the axe because his home is closer to the center of the northwestern Republican strongholds, so it was easier to carve up his district between Garrett and Lance.

NJ-01 (dark blue) - Rob Andrews' district. Takes in more area, but is still solidly Democratic.
NJ-02 (dark purple) - LoBiondo's district made more Republican.
NJ-03 (dark green) - shored up John Adler by removing Ocean County and adding in Trenton instead.
NJ-04 (light blue) - Chris Smith in a district that is not much changed, except to give Trenton to Adler. It's a funny shape because (like a lot of NJ Reps) Smith lives on the western edge of the district.
NJ-05 (grey) - Scott Garrett's district takes in the Republican northern end of New Jersey.
NJ-06 (yellow) - Frank Pallone's district is probably a little more Republican now, but shouldn't be hard for him to hold.
NJ-07 (teal) - Leonard Lance and Rodney Frelinghuysen are put in the same district. The winner will hold the district, as it should be fairly Republican.
NJ-08 (light purple) - Bill Pascrell's district, still safe for the Democrats.
NJ-09 (magenta) - Steve Rothman, see above.
NJ-10 (very light purple, on the east side of NJ-08) - I couldn't get this district to be majority-black, so I had to settle on it being a coalition district. Still locked up tight for Don Payne.
NJ-11 (light green, formerly NJ-13) - Albio Sires' district, safe Dem and about 45% Latino. It's currently about 47-48%, so not much of a change there.
NJ-12 (red) - Rush Holt's district, taking in the Democratic areas of Somerset and Middlesex, and eschewing the Monmouth portion. More Democratic now.
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Holmes
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« Reply #126 on: June 21, 2009, 08:57:59 PM »

I have no idea if I did a Democratic or Republican gerrymander, I just tried to make pretty districts.

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Platypus
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« Reply #127 on: June 23, 2009, 04:24:04 AM »

I have no idea if I did a Democratic or Republican gerrymander, I just tried to make pretty districts.



That's almost the same as mine, but my split between red, yellow and green was a bit different.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #128 on: June 23, 2009, 09:28:03 PM »

I have no idea if I did a Democratic or Republican gerrymander, I just tried to make pretty districts.
You should make the Portland district yellow so it looks like the beak of bird, and then the southern coastal district green for the wings.
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RBH
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« Reply #129 on: June 24, 2009, 04:13:25 PM »

Here's an SC gerrymander

SC-1 (blue):


SC-3 (purple):


SC-4 (red):


SC-5 (yellow):


SC-7 (gray):


Southeastern SC:


SC-2 is green, SC-6 is teal.

And stats

SC-1: 78% White, 15% Black (formerly 75/21 White)
SC-2: 68% White, 23% Black (formerly 70/26 White)
SC-3: 75% White, 19% Black (formerly 77/21 White)
SC-4: 81% White, 11% Black (formerly 76/20 White)
SC-5: 75% White, 18% Black (formerly 65/32 White)
SC-6: 56% Black, 37% White (formerly 57/41 Black)
SC-7: 54% Black, 42% White

Basically the 6th starts in Spartansburg/Greenville/Anderson and makes it's way to Columbia.

But basically the map creates a future 5/2 map on the retirement of Spratt, and it significantly weakens Spratt
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #130 on: June 24, 2009, 05:35:42 PM »

Here's an SC gerrymander

SC-1 (blue):


SC-3 (purple):


SC-4 (red):


SC-5 (yellow):


SC-7 (gray):


Southeastern SC:


SC-2 is green, SC-6 is teal.

And stats

SC-1: 78% White, 15% Black (formerly 75/21 White)
SC-2: 68% White, 23% Black (formerly 70/26 White)
SC-3: 75% White, 19% Black (formerly 77/21 White)
SC-4: 81% White, 11% Black (formerly 76/20 White)
SC-5: 75% White, 18% Black (formerly 65/32 White)
SC-6: 56% Black, 37% White (formerly 57/41 Black)
SC-7: 54% Black, 42% White

Basically the 6th starts in Spartansburg/Greenville/Anderson and makes it's way to Columbia.

But basically the map creates a future 5/2 map on the retirement of Spratt, and it significantly weakens Spratt

...Good Lord. I think even Tom DeLay would consider that a bit excessive.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #131 on: June 24, 2009, 09:47:00 PM »

10 districts for Mass on 2000 population.   Boston, 3 inner suburban, 3 outer suburban-exurban, Worcester-Springfield, Western Mass-Springfield, and Fall River-New Bedford-Cape Cod-Islands


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muon2
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« Reply #132 on: June 24, 2009, 10:12:10 PM »

10 districts for Mass on 2000 population.   Boston, 3 inner suburban, 3 outer suburban-exurban, Worcester-Springfield, Western Mass-Springfield, and Fall River-New Bedford-Cape Cod-Islands




A New England Republican might even win the red district.
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bgwah
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« Reply #133 on: June 24, 2009, 10:29:36 PM »

I have recent census tract estimates from the state government that would be much more accurate than their method of applying Census estimates. Their estimates method might work in some states, but my county alone has almost 2 million people and some parts have grown way faster than others, so it's not very helpful. I wish there were a way I could use the state tract estimates instead... Sad
Send an e-mail to Dave Bradlee.  He appears to be receptive to assistance to make his program better.  Since block groups nest within census tracts, it should be relatively easy to adjust the data for your estimates, especially if you are willing to do the grunt work.




I took your advice, but he never responded. Sad
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jimrtex
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« Reply #134 on: June 24, 2009, 11:21:01 PM »

...Good Lord. I think even Tom DeLay would consider that a bit excessive.

Lest we forget the true evil of Martin Frost, ex-congressman from Texas.

The red district is the part of Delay's district in West Houston, the green district is Mike Andrews-Ken Bentsen-Chris Bell's former district.  The yellow district is part of Craig Washington-Sheila Jackson_Lee's district.  The blue is Bill Archer's district.  This was a totally legal political gerrymander.



This is further east in SE Houston.  Delay's district is the red district at the bottom.  The magenta district is Gene Green's district.  This of course is an illegal racial gerrymander.



This is in north & northwest Houston.  Besides all the weird peninsulas in Green's district, you have another district wrapping around it.  The neck of the magenta district in the lower right is about 3/5 of a mile across.  To get between the yellow district on one side to the other is about 60 miles.

In the Ohio Redistricting contest the measure of compactness is area divided by perimeter squared.  A perfect circle would be 0.0796.  A square 0.0625.  The median district in the contest was about 0.029.  The worst district, which wrapped completely around Cleveland plus almost got chopped off in Parma was about 0.007.  Districts in Texas were .00115, 0.00075, 0.00056, and 0.0189.



This is Lubbock County.  Again a legal political gerrymander.   Guess where blacks and Hispanics are concentrated?



The districts meet in Midland which is east of the SE corner of New Mexico.  Dalhart is in the extreme NE corner of the panhandle.  Decatur and Granbury are exurbs of Fort Worth.  Round Rock is north of Austin and New Braunfels is NE of San Antonio.



This is zoomed out quite a bit.  The area in the previous map is in the far NW corner of this one.   The orange district is Austin.  It is kind of a donut hole district with one district stretching west to Midland, and the magenta district stretching SE to Galveston.  The Democrat congressman from the magenta district switched parties and then was beaten by Ron Paul in the primary.  The yellow district is central San Antonio.



This is San Antonio and the area to the NE around New Braunfels.  The red district stretches to El Paso, Midland, and Laredo.  The area on the north side of San Antonio was added at the request of the Democrat congressman who was building a house there.  After being caught in the Post Office Banking scandal, he was beaten by Henry Bonilla.



This is Fort Worth with Dallas on the eastern part of the map.  The link in the red district in the NE part of Tarrant County is by the surface of Eagle Mountain Lake.  That is why the edges are a bit fuzzier.  The yellow district is former congressman Martin Frost's district which links parts of Arlington to parts of Dallas via Waxahachie.   The red district was a legal political gerrymander.



The blue district is Eddie Bernice-Johnson's.



This is a detail of the northern part of the district, with a bit extending into Collin County.  In a deposition, she claimed that she was just trying to include her friends in her district (she was a state senator at the time the district lines were drawn, and she was elected from the new district).  Parts of this area was also thrown out as a racial gerrymander.



The whole state.

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jimrtex
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« Reply #135 on: June 24, 2009, 11:37:45 PM »

Send an e-mail to Dave Bradlee.  He appears to be receptive to assistance to make his program better.  Since block groups nest within census tracts, it should be relatively easy to adjust the data for your estimates, especially if you are willing to do the grunt work.

I took your advice, but he never responded. Sad
When I wrote him, he said that he had a new job and a lot less time to work on it.  Looking at his response it was pretty non-committal, though he said he was working on making it open source.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #136 on: June 24, 2009, 11:54:58 PM »

10 districts for Mass on 2000 population.   Boston, 3 inner suburban, 3 outer suburban-exurban, Worcester-Springfield, Western Mass-Springfield, and Fall River-New Bedford-Cape Cod-Islands




A New England Republican might even win the red district.
It is probably the district that goes away with a 9-district plan.  You should be able to get all of the Connecticut Valley in to the western district, which makes the green district more pure Worcester.  And then the gray and light blue would slide westward taking up the rest of the red district.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #137 on: June 25, 2009, 08:50:05 AM »

Yeah, the combination of "let's create districts for white Democrats and minority Democrats" plus "ooh, computers" was ugly. Weren't the squiggly inner-city districts in Houston and Dallas overturned by the courts and redrawn?
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jimrtex
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« Reply #138 on: June 25, 2009, 07:07:10 PM »

Yeah, the combination of "let's create districts for white Democrats and minority Democrats" plus "ooh, computers" was ugly. Weren't the squiggly inner-city districts in Houston and Dallas overturned by the courts and redrawn?
Bush v Vera, a 5-4 decision by the Supreme Court found that race was the predominating factor in three of the districts 18, 29, and 30.

Justice Stevens in his dissent noted that this district was just as bad as the others, and it wasn't based on race, so this made the others OK.  The district starts in Ellis County, loops around Fort Worth and ends up in Johnson County.  Yellow are areas that were in the district before and after Bush v Vera, red areas were removed, and green areas were added.  Many of the changes appear to have been made for population balance.

13 (of 30) districts were modified to some extent and were contested as special elections concurrent with the November 1996 general election.  The results of the primaries were thrown out, and any candidate could run regardless of party, with a majority required for election.  In several cases you ended up with a rerun of a primary.



This is Martin Frost's district.



This is Eddie Bernice Johnson's district (30).  As state senator she had originally proposed a relative compact district black majority district, but it would have placed several incumbents in the district.  One of the defenses offered for the plan was that her original plan had been adjusted to protect Democrat incumbents, including Martin Frost and John Bryant, and that some Democratic areas that just happened to be black remained with their districts, so that she had to seek blacks further afield.  Since she had a lot of influence over drawing her district, it was claimed that she along with Gene Green and Ben Reyes were de facto incumbents, and it was a legislative prerogative to protect incumbents.

The majority opinion noted that the plan did not follow traditional districting values since the northern tip of the district went into Collin County and a tiny bit went into Tarrant County (the very western nob of the red area on the southern part of the western extension.  Justice O'Connor seemed to suggest that 18 and 29 were somewhat better because they were entirely in Harris County.



This is Tom Delay's district in Harris County.  The areas that were chopped off appear to make up for an area in Fort Bend County that was added.



This is Mike Andrews-Ken Bentsen-Chris Bell district, with a lot of cleanup in the middle.  The green area to the east is the Houston Ship Channel, with very few people, but providing a connection to some Hispanic areas in Baytown (the green tongue at the far east end).  This district is the main reason for the gerrymander in Houston, since they didn't want to force the district any further south into Republican areas.  Now that it has been converted to a majority black district, it is fairly compact.



This is CD 18 which was Craig Washington's district (and before that Barbara Jordan and Mickey Leland, and now Sheila Jackson Lee.  Major concentrations of blacks are in NW, NE, and S Houston, while Hispanics are in the E and SE, N and WNW.  One reason that the districts are weird is that you can only connect one of the districts through downtown.

The original plan had CD 18 wrapping around the Hispanic district to the far west, and then connecting the NE and NW black areas at the top (the airport - IAH) is at the far north so it isn't that heavily populated and neither is the extreme NE.

The revised plan connected the black areas through downtown.  This is still the current configuration.



This is CD 29, that was drawn (somewhat) as a Hispanic district, but has always elected Gene Green, who was instrumental in drawing the map.   A lot of the bizarre fingers were to include apartment complexes, which have population, but less than their share of voters.



This is DFW after the federal district court had adjusted the boundaries.



And this is Harris County afterwards.


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Kevinstat
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« Reply #139 on: June 28, 2009, 01:19:58 AM »

Whichever court redrew the lines in 1994 seem to have cleaned up the lines a lot better in Houston than they did in Dallas-Fort Worth, from a worse starting point.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #140 on: June 28, 2009, 08:20:02 AM »

I'm surprised nobody's done North Carolina yet. Here it is with a theoretical 14th district (which may or may not happen this time). You may want to open it in a new window to see it better.



As you can see, I've actually de-gerrymandered it to some extent. Here's the district breakdown:

NC-01 (brown, GK Butterfield - D) - I didn't bother trying to make this majority-black; it's a coalition district. I'm sure you could finagle it to 51% black if needed; currently it's about 49% or so white. Either way, easy Dem district to hold.
NC-02 (very light purple, Bob Etheridge - D) - I'm not sure how strong this district is -- it takes in half of Wake County (Raleigh) and Republican Johnston County. Probably a tossup district now.
NC-03 (pink, Walter Jones - R) - Extends the entire coastline, but is at least more contiguous now. Safe Republican.
NC-04 (green, David Price - D) - Still safe Dem, although I changed its boundaries to include Republican Alamance County, which is overwhelmed by Chapel Hill and Durham.
NC-05 (dark purple, Virginia Foxx - R) - Safe Republican district. Didn't change much.
NC-06 (light purple, Howard Coble - R) - I excised all of Greensboro, so Coble would have to move to the suburbs (or retire, he's 79), but it's safe Republican.
NC-07 (red, Mike McIntyre - D) - This was annoying, because there's not much Democratic territory in the southernmost point of North Carolina. I kept most of his district but gave Brunswick County to Jones. Still leans Republican.
NC-08 (light blue, Larry Kissell - D) - Shifted eastwards, picking up more of Fayetteville and some Republican areas of McIntyre's district. Probably a little more Republican now.
NC-09 (yellow, Sue Myrick - R) - She'll have to move to the suburbs too, but she gets a safe district still.
NC-10 (dark green, Patrick McHenry - R) - The district shrunk but is still safe Republican.
NC-11 (dark blue, Heath Shuler - D) - Also shrunk a bit, and is maybe a little more Democratic now that it doesn't have a few of the district's easternmost counties.
NC-12 (teal, Mel Watt - D) - Controversy! I dismantled his plurality-white district that snakes from Charlotte to Winston-Salem and gave him a safe, albeit majority-white, metro Charlotte district. I'm sure it probably violates VRA, but oh well.
NC-13 (magenta, Brad Miller - D) - This one shrunk as well, but remains centered in Raleigh.
NC-14 (grey, open) - A new Democratic seat that consists of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Thanks, Mel!
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muon2
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« Reply #141 on: June 28, 2009, 08:33:24 AM »

I'm surprised nobody's done North Carolina yet. Here it is with a theoretical 14th district (which may or may not happen this time). You may want to open it in a new window to see it better.



As you can see, I've actually de-gerrymandered it to some extent. Here's the district breakdown:

NC-01 (brown, GK Butterfield - D) - I didn't bother trying to make this majority-black; it's a coalition district. I'm sure you could finagle it to 51% black if needed; currently it's about 49% or so white. Either way, easy Dem district to hold.
NC-02 (very light purple, Bob Etheridge - D) - I'm not sure how strong this district is -- it takes in half of Wake County (Raleigh) and Republican Johnston County. Probably a tossup district now.
NC-03 (pink, Walter Jones - R) - Extends the entire coastline, but is at least more contiguous now. Safe Republican.
NC-04 (green, David Price - D) - Still safe Dem, although I changed its boundaries to include Republican Alamance County, which is overwhelmed by Chapel Hill and Durham.
NC-05 (dark purple, Virginia Foxx - R) - Safe Republican district. Didn't change much.
NC-06 (light purple, Howard Coble - R) - I excised all of Greensboro, so Coble would have to move to the suburbs (or retire, he's 79), but it's safe Republican.
NC-07 (red, Mike McIntyre - D) - This was annoying, because there's not much Democratic territory in the southernmost point of North Carolina. I kept most of his district but gave Brunswick County to Jones. Still leans Republican.
NC-08 (light blue, Larry Kissell - D) - Shifted eastwards, picking up more of Fayetteville and some Republican areas of McIntyre's district. Probably a little more Republican now.
NC-09 (yellow, Sue Myrick - R) - She'll have to move to the suburbs too, but she gets a safe district still.
NC-10 (dark green, Patrick McHenry - R) - The district shrunk but is still safe Republican.
NC-11 (dark blue, Heath Shuler - D) - Also shrunk a bit, and is maybe a little more Democratic now that it doesn't have a few of the district's easternmost counties.
NC-12 (teal, Mel Watt - D) - Controversy! I dismantled his plurality-white district that snakes from Charlotte to Winston-Salem and gave him a safe, albeit majority-white, metro Charlotte district. I'm sure it probably violates VRA, but oh well.
NC-13 (magenta, Brad Miller - D) - This one shrunk as well, but remains centered in Raleigh.
NC-14 (grey, open) - A new Democratic seat that consists of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Thanks, Mel!

Since the SCOTUS just ruled to continue requiring preclearance for states like NC, the lack of any majority black district would kill this plan. There will be a real challenge in NC to meet the VRA but not create a gerrymander which will fail on other grounds.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #142 on: June 29, 2009, 06:19:58 PM »

Whichever court redrew the lines in 1994 seem to have cleaned up the lines a lot better in Houston than they did in Dallas-Fort Worth, from a worse starting point.
<i>Bush v. Vera</i> was delivered in June 1996.  Originally, 24 districts were challenged, but the district court ruled that only 3 districts, two in Houston, and one in Dallas had race been the primary motivation.  In other cases the intent was merely to pack Republicans so that Democrat incumbents could hang on to their seats.  BTW, the Oyez project has a recording of the oral arguments in <i>Bush v. Vera</i>.

In the case of Houston, two districts were interlocked, one black and one Hispanic.  There were hundreds of little twitches to take in a block one way or the other based on race.  So once you defined the main areas you wanted to connect it was relatively easy to provide a connection.  And there was only one other Democratic district that they were trying to preserve,  But if you notice, Tom Delay's district has lot of little indentations and was left alone except to balance the population.  The boundaries drawn by the district court were not as balanced as perfectly as possible, and they expected the legislature to finish the job up and perhaps straighten out some other boundaries.  But that didn't happen until the district court redrew the boundaries after the 2000 census.

The Supreme Court decision was after the primaries had been held, and rather than wait until 1998, the district court ordered the elections for the new districts be held as a special election in November 1996.  In Texas, a special congressional election is held without party primaries or nominations, and requires a majority election.  Even with the minor tweaks to some of the districts, 13 districts had special elections.  In some cases, the runoff was a rerun of the party primary in the spring. 

Ironically, the only material effect of the changes was that Nick Lampson was elected, defeating Steve Stockman.  Stockman had defeated Jack Brooks, a 42-year incumbent in 1992.  Stockman had led the November vote, but had not received a majority.  The runoff was in December, and turnout was much higher in Beaumont and Port Arthur, than in Houston where the election got little coverage.  The only changes to the district were quite small, and if there had been an actual effort to avoid a special election by not making the changes, they probably could have been avoided.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #143 on: June 30, 2009, 07:19:25 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2009, 07:44:34 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Here's a fun little gerrymander of Missouri with 8 districts:



MO-01 (green, Lacy Clay Emmanuel Cleaver - D) - Expands to all of Jackson County and part of Cass, but should still be a solidly Democratic district.
MO-02 (teal, Todd Akin - R) - Takes in Warren and Franklin Counties now and part of Pike. Probably doesn't change the lean of the district much, as it was 55% McCain before and all those counties went 55% McCain.
MO-03 (yellow, Russ Carnahan - D) - Once again expanding, taking in some swingy rural areas, but should still be lean Dem.
MO-04 (dark blue, Ike Skelton - D) - This is the fun part. I wanted to make a district that a Dem could hold after Skelton retires, and I came up with this T-shaped thing. McCain won the district by about 3,000 votes, if my math is correct, so it has a slight Republican lean, but is much friendlier territory than Skelton's old district.
MO-05 (red, Emmanuel Cleaver Lacy Clay - D) - Not much to say here, it just got a little bigger. Remains solidly Dem and about 47% black (it's 49.6% or so currently, so no VRA issues).
MO-06 (dark purple, Sam Graves - R) - I had to borrow a lot of the Kansas City area of Graves' district to help Skelton out, so now it has expanded to take up nearly half the state, geographically speaking. Probably even more Republican now.
MO-07 (grey, open/Blaine Luetkemeyer - R) - I dismantled Luetkemeyer's district and stuck him in Blunt's old district, since his successor and Luet would be the two least senior members of the House delegation. Another safe R district.
MO-08 (light purple, Jo Ann Emerson - R) - This district didn't change a whole lot.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #144 on: July 01, 2009, 08:55:41 AM »

There's some weird inversion of the 1st district (Clay, St. Louis) and the 5th district (Cleaver, KC) in your description and color choices.

Graves/Skelton reminded me of this

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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #145 on: July 01, 2009, 09:30:33 AM »

I always get those two mixed up. I nearly swapped akin and graves, too. Really, the problem is that missouri has the least noteworthy house delegation of a state with more than one or two reps.
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #146 on: July 01, 2009, 09:37:02 AM »

Is anybody going to do Virginia?
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #147 on: July 01, 2009, 09:48:33 AM »

I'd love to do virginia but it's not supported on the app.
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Badlands17
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« Reply #148 on: July 03, 2009, 07:55:25 AM »

I gave this app a crack for my native state, Indiana. I wanted to make a nonpartisan map so I made it and then looked up how it would affect the existing representatives.




District 1 (blue) trades in Newton, Jasper, and Benton counties for the Michigan City area; probably slightly safer for Visclosky.

District 2 (green) is adjusted a little to the east and loses Michigan City and gerrymandered Kokomo, so it's probably less safe for Joe Donnelly in the process.

District 3 (royal purple) is pushed up against the Ohio state line by the 2nd, and as a result expands southward slightly. Souter still safe in most challenges, can get down to favored.

District 4 (red) loses its gerrymandered constituencies in Bedford and the Indy suburbs and gains the Terre Haute area. While initially probably lean Rep, the Lafayette area has been becoming more Dem lately (seen by the particularly strong performance of Barack Obama last year), and this might very well be a swing district by the end of the 2010s.

District 5 (gold) is a suburban ring around Indianapolis, composed entirely of county fragments. Both Steve Buyer and Dan Burton are going to have to fight for this one, but it will be even stronger Republican than it was before.

District 6 (teal) is a belt stretching from Richmond to Kokomo made up of towns with low prospects and population growth (that were not helped by the auto industry's recent collapse, upon which it was heavily dependent). More Dem but still lean Rep.

District 7 (gray) is modified as to be stronger Dem, designed to take in as many lower-class minority constituents as possible (however, it's still three fifths white).

District 8 (grayish purple) trades the Terre Haute area for the Bloomington area; slightly safer for Ellsworth.

District 9 (turquoise) is pulled to the east and probably becomes lean Rep; Pence and Hill fight for this one.
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afleitch
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« Reply #149 on: July 03, 2009, 12:57:52 PM »

I've been using this to create UK sized hypothetical constituencies for some seats. Cos...you know I'm bored
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