Dave's Redistricting App

[Brittain33]

Does anyone want to take a stab at making a McCain district in New England or a white-majority Obama district in the Deep South.

It might be possible in N.H. if you can draw a district linking the seacoast towns to the Connecticut River Valley via a very thin line up the Maine border and over Coos County. What's left in the middle and along the Mass. border could be a McCain district.

In Connecticut it's certainly impossible, and it's almost certainly impossible in Massachusetts.

[Brittain33]

I know we were asked not to post every swing state diary map here when people can see them there on their own, but this "New York 28-0" takes the cake for treating redistricting as an abstraction. I'm actually offended that someone submitted it.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6166/#108516

[Brittain33]

Can someone create a minority-majority district in MA?

Tom Finneran proposed one in 2001. It involved connecting the minority-majority parts of MA-8 and Milton to Lynn. With 9 districts, it's probably impossible.

[Brittain33]

Edit: This district is similar to Mike Capuano's 8th district, but does anyone know if I also included Stephen Lynch's residence?

Almost surely not, Stephen Lynch lives in South Boston which demographically would never be included in this district.

[Brittain33]

I tried to make a nine-district map with the assumption that Lynch was either in the above minority-majority district or sharing one with Delahunt. It got very ugly thanks to no incumbents living south of Quincy. It's a long way off, but is there any clue to a retirement or which incumbents might be forced into a primary?

Olver is getting up there in years and represents a part of the state with declining population and little political clout. The last two districts cut in '82 and '92 were from the western Boston suburbs and from the city of Boston, respectively, so the likelihood is that a western district will go. You can't really do two full districts west of the Worcester area any longer. I've tried, and I end up tethering the city of Worcester to towns far to the east or southeast.

[Brittain33]

Your map does not have a CD 10. Maybe what you meant, is that Mass Pubbies would be competitive in Atlantis. I assume the old CD 10 is based on the Cape, no? That might be trending GOP a bit now, since the gays by and large have moved on now from Provincetown.

The gays are still in Provincetown, but the town is such a tiny share of the Cape population (1.5%) that until recently their state house representative was a Republican who survived a 2004 challenge by a lesbian Democrat. (Who later succeeded her when she retired.) 

[Brittain33]

What does including those precincts from Dorchester do to the demographics?

[Brittain33]

It's kind of cheating, but Vermont is 98% white.

Maine surpassed Vermont as the least-diverse state this decade, and it should be possible to draw 1 district that excludes Lewiston, Portland, and Native American areas.

Utah is probably not going to work for this purpose because even heavily Mormon areas will have some Latino population.

[Brittain33]

The 4th is in eastern CO.

According to the descriptions, one word aside, he's swapped the numbering from the current 3rd and 4th.

[Brittain33]

And by that, I mean it would have to look like on of the VRA districts in the South.  If you go North you take him into Butler County.  If you go South or East, then you are endangering Doyle.  And you can't go West.

Can't you go south and take in parts of Mascara's old district? I drew a map that did that, linking a smaller part of north Allegheny and riverside towns to a district from Lawrence down to Greene, using only part of Washington County, while wrapping much of the rest of north Allegheny in the 18th. It didn't look pretty, but it didn't look awful. Admittedly I don't know the individual towns like a local would and probably made mistakes.

[Brittain33]

The South Hills are not much more friendly to the Democrats than the North Hills... less so, in fact.  Murphy is already there, and already has a presence on the ground and a relationship with the people.

What exactly constitutes the South Hills that would be included in the district I described? Allegheny County only has 1.2 million people and is majority Democratic, I don't think if you wrap the North Hills together and South Hills together plus part of Westmoreland and Butler based on today's 18th, AND have a Democratic district in Pittsburgh, you're going to have more than 1.5 million people. I took more territory and people from Murtha's district than from the 18th.

[Brittain33]

P.S.  did you post this map, Britt?

I posted it here several months ago, I think. I have it on my computer... little of the South Hills is in the 4th district. I kept the existing 14th/4th border on the north side. The 4th then includes a strip of townships and communities one deep from Fox Chapel westward, connects with the river at Glenfield, and includes everything northwest between Ohio Twp. and Bell Acres Twp. and the river. On the south shore of the river, I took in most of Moon Twp. and Crescent Twp. only.

I extended the 14th east and south into the 18th for population equality in a way that would probably make you flinch for its indiscriminateness, but it's safe D and the 18th is safe R, so it doesn't matter.  

The rest of Allegheny County--the South Hills, the top two tiers of townships, the northeast--are in the 18th, along with a somewhat reduced chunk of Westmoreland. And all of Butler County. Although from what you said, I should move northern Butler into the 12th and give Murphy back some more of Westmoreland.

The rest of the 4th is all of Washington, Greene, Beaver, and Lawrence Counties, with a small piece of Mercer.

My rationale in redistricting was to eliminate the 5th and see what happens, which is an indefensible start for a Pennsylvania map. It pulls the 10th and the 3rd together in the middle of the state with the 9th rising to meet it, and you've pointed out the problems there for the 3rd.

[Brittain33]

Uh....I just made a majority black district in Iowa.........51-43 Black

Not for Congress, you didn't.

[Brittain33]

I would guess the 10th is Republican, although in great flux because it has so much bubble housing in it that is destined to become slum. Harry Mitchell is out of a job with this map unless he can win a primary in the 9th because his base in Tempe is split and the relocated 5th would be won by any electable Republican.

[Brittain33]

Wow, that map would end the careers of Boyd, Castor, Grayson, Wasserman Schultz, and probably Klein in exchange for one new African-American district and preserving the two in South Florida against population decline. If there was an award named for Tom DeLay, this would be the first winner.

[Brittain33]

It's a geographically and politically coherent map. However, it does draw both Adler (Cherry Hill, now in with Andrews) and Lance (Hunterdon, in with Garrett) out of a job, and Pallone (home town: Long Branch) and Smith (Washington Twp.?) are far from their more party-friendly districts. Smith is deep in the 12th and Pallone is in the 6th. Pallone might still win the 6th, but not easily. One person is going to lose his job anyway with redistricting and the current 6th is indefensible.

Your map has me wondering what would happen if the 10th went north into Paterson instead of west into wealthy Essex County suburbs.

[Brittain33]

So I know that way back when we decided not to post maps just because they showed up on Swing State Project, but I couldn't help but share a map of Alabama with 3 VRA districts out of 7 that someone posted there:

http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/lsSl1VLVi-Q_ITJaERlZDJOTmtJtrZs_GxhPFHyfdaQ?feat=embedwebsite

[Brittain33]

I know this isn't what you set out to do, but I would imagine you could give the green gerrymander district some precincts in Gwinnett County and make a more compact, viable coalition district that would elect the winner of the D primary.

[Brittain33]

Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

[Brittain33]

Generally, people of European descent who did not make a detour through Latin America on their way to the U.S. are not considered Hispanic or Latino.

Oh of course. But someone who just looks at their name and their pictures (especially Nunes) might assume they are Hispanic.

Spanish-Americans are actually considered Hispanic.

Both my post and your post are missing a "by whom." I think this is a gray area, like whether a white South African can check "African-American". There's also the mess of Latino vs. Hispanic which are preferred in different parts of the country.

[Brittain33]

Looks like it's not possible draw a McCain State House seat in Philly after all.

You give up too easily. This district is 52% McCain.

Anyone else not seeing an image here? I tried loading the URL and I couldn't access it... but it could be my work firewall getting stronger.

[Brittain33]

Also Chet Edwards might be able to breathe a sigh of relief, the new district should push the Dallas suburbs out of his.

I think this election is going to claim the ninth of his lives.

[Brittain33]

The trick is you have to draw Hispanic-majority but Republican-leaning districts, which is much easier than it sounds if you know where to try.

I'm curious how you define that as "fully VRA compliant." A district where there is a Hispanic majority, but your intent is for them to be outvoted by the Anglo minority in a polarized election with low Hispanic turnout, is not VRA compliant because the community does not get to elect "the candidate of their choice."

[Brittain33]

Well then, if The Democrats lose TX-23 to a candidate that won more of the white vote than the Hispanic vote, does that mean it no longer counts as a VRA district because a majority of Hispanics didn't vote for their current representative even if he himself is Hispanic?

It would depend on how polarized the vote is. In TX-23, it's pretty polarized, 1992 notwithstanding. One specific outcome doesn't matter as much as the potential for the minority community not to be consistently outvoted by the Anglo community. This is determined by numbers.

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It is too unlikely a Hispanic would win the Republican primary--but if he wins the election almost entirely on white votes, with Gene Green taking the lion's share of the Hispanic vote and still losing, yes, that would be a failure according to VRA. The ethnicity of the representative doesn't matter, only the ethnicity of his voters does. The same way that TN-9 is stll a VRA district despite electing Steve Cohen. He has been elected only with substantial African-American support in the Democratic primary.

[Brittain33]

I'm also curious as to whether or not creating minority-majority districts where they are not VRA required would be struck down.  Making a 60% Black one in Houston makes the rest of Harris county more than 55% Republican, but it's not very compact (not really ugly, like IL-17 or something, but kind of long and sweeping).

This may not be exactly what you are talking about, but you don't necessarily need to achieve the same high numbers with African-American VRA districts because of much higher levels of citizenship among the minority population and because of the likelihood in a place like urban Houston where the crucial test is ability to win the Democratic primary, not the general election. That remaining 40% is not likely to be exclusively Anglo and certainly not 85+% Republican voting which means that the minority community can win as part of a Democratic coalition they dominate.