2009 European and Parliamentary elections in Bulgaria
GMantis:
This is intended mainly for covering the Parliamentary elections in July, but it's a good opportunity to give my view on the European elections.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009_(Bulgaria)
http://www.cikep2009.eu/
On of the bad things about the fall of the Lisbon treaty is that Bulgaria will have 17 instead of 18 EMP. Also, the distribution system has been changed from d'Hondt to the hare quota, which is good as it makes calculating the number of deputies easier :)
Last polls, with projected number of deputies in brackets:
Skala, 4th June
GERB : 29.50% (6)
BSP: 20.95% (4)
DPS: 16.55% (3)
Attack: 10.30% (2)
Blue Coalition: 8.22% (2)
Barometer Info, 3th June
GERB : 26.07% (5)
BSP: 17.54% (4)
DPS: 15.00% (3)
Attack: 8.53% (2)
Blue Coalition: 9.24% (2)
Napred (IMRO and others): 6.16 (1)
Tender Branson:
What is the price for a poor Roma vote today if I'd like to cast my ballot in Bulgaria ?
5€ ?
[/irony end]
minionofmidas:
"Blue Coalition"? Would that be НДСВ + allies?
GMantis:
Scala, which has made the only continuous series of polls shows a trend of declining of GERB and a strengthening of DPS and Attack. I think that DPS is very underrated as the polling agencies underpoll poor, rural and non-Bulgarian voters, DPS strongest areas and they can't account for the massive vote fraud DPS is committing at the moment. It's also thought that a low turnout will favour DPS and BSP, while a high turnout will favour GERB and the Blue coalition. It seems that at the moment the turnout is quite higher than in 2007, but it's even higher in the DPS strongholds.
The party of the former king, NMSS is hoping to gain a EMP by placing the popular European commissioner Meglena Kuneva on top of their party list. It seems to have worked to an extent, as they jumped from 1% to 4% during the election campaign, which relied exclusively on her personality. Various other minor parties, like the above mentioned Napred, RZS and Lider also rely on popular mavericks to get at least a single place in the European parliament, but I don't rate their chances very highly. Voting here is heavily party-based (meaning major parties) and most voters fear to waste their votes by voting for minor parties.
In summary, there will probably only 5 parties from Bulgaria in the European parliament. All in all, their higher turnout and questionable tactics will lead to a better performance from the DPS than predicted and respectively a lower performance from the other parties.
My prediction:
GERB 6
BSP 4
DPS: 4
Attack: 2
Blue Coalition: 1
GMantis:
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 07, 2009, 06:01:59 AM
What is the price for a poor Roma vote today if I'd like to cast my ballot in Bulgaria ?
5€ ?
[/irony end]
Between 30 and 100 levs (15 and 50 euro). However, you must show some evidence of your vote or you'll indeed get only 5€. There has been of course a great campaign against this, every election clip ended in: "The buying and selling of votes is a crime." I doubt it had much effect, though.
The DPS, it seems, is using the Gypsy patriarchal social structure to purchase huge number of Gypsy votes by paying only their elders. Cheaper and more effective ;)
Quote from: no guns, no mobiles, no sex on June 07, 2009, 06:12:53 AM
"Blue Coalition"? Would that be НДСВ + allies?
No, that's UDF + DSB + various microparties. DSB was originally was part of the UDF until 2003, when Ivan Kostov, former UDF chairman and Prime Minister, broke away and formed the DSB. The two splinters have feuded ever since, despite only minor political differences, until the imminent exclusion of both from the European and National parliaments, forced them in a cold and unfriendly alliance. The conflict between the two has not really abated and there are rumours that the DSB voters plan to force Nadezhda Mikhailova (former UDF chairman and bitter enemy of Kostov) from the top of the list by means of preferential voting.
NDSV meanwhile is approaching its well deserved political death. Their only chance at representation is as I said above is Kuneva and it's only a small chance.
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