European Parliament 2009 - Offical Results Thread

[Hans-im-Glück]

German ARD exit poll:

CDU/CSU 38.5
SPD 21.0
Green 11.5
FDP 11.0
Left 7.5

This isn't  a surprise for me. The SPD is in every European election overpolled and have a problem to mobilize their voters. Alone in my hometown (population 3500) i know 10 die hard voters of the SPD who don't go to European Election.

This election isn't the general election. there will be the turnout 75%-80% and not only 40%. On the other hand with this leaders the SPD will be many problems. because nobody knows what they want.

I voted for the Greens and they have a very good result. It's the best in a election in complete germany.

[Hans-im-Glück]

current ZDF German exit poll:

CDU/CSU 38.4
SPD 21.3
Green 12.1
FDP 10.3
Left 7.2

CDU/CSU/FDP = 48.7
SPD/Green/Left = 40.6

CDU/CSU/SPD ['Grand Coalition']= 59.7
Green/FDP/Left = 29.6

not likely that they'd continue the grand coalition voluntarily

current ZDF German exit poll:

CDU/CSU 38.4
SPD 21.3
Green 12.1
FDP 10.3
Left 7.2

CDU/CSU/FDP = 48.7
SPD/Green/Left = 40.6

CDU/CSU/SPD ['Grand Coalition']= 59.7
Green/FDP/Left = 29.6

not likely that they'd continue the grand coalition voluntarily

Is the Bundestag election coming up soon?

Yes, indeed, a lot of experts in Germany think this is partially a test of support for the upcoming federal election, which will take place in September.

And the likelyhood of a CDU/CSU/FDP government?

hard to say at this point....but I'd guess that it's more likely than not.

Who knows what in september is? The SPD will be better like in this election, but good enough to make a mayority black/yellow impossible? Who knows? In the time of the crisis the reaction of the people will be doubtful to prognose.

Guido Westerwelle as foreign minister is a nightmare for me and i hope there will be another majority.

[Hans-im-Glück]

 In the last 2 european elections the SPD was massive overpolled. 2004 the polls say 27-28% for the SPD. In the end they get 21%

1999 it wasn't so extreme, but simliar.

[Hans-im-Glück]

current ZDF German exit poll:

CDU/CSU 38.4
SPD 21.3
Green 12.1
FDP 10.3
Left 7.2

CDU/CSU/FDP = 48.7
SPD/Green/Left = 40.6

CDU/CSU/SPD ['Grand Coalition']= 59.7
Green/FDP/Left = 29.6

not likely that they'd continue the grand coalition voluntarily

current ZDF German exit poll:

CDU/CSU 38.4
SPD 21.3
Green 12.1
FDP 10.3
Left 7.2

CDU/CSU/FDP = 48.7
SPD/Green/Left = 40.6

CDU/CSU/SPD ['Grand Coalition']= 59.7
Green/FDP/Left = 29.6

not likely that they'd continue the grand coalition voluntarily

Is the Bundestag election coming up soon?

Yes, indeed, a lot of experts in Germany think this is partially a test of support for the upcoming federal election, which will take place in September.

And the likelyhood of a CDU/CSU/FDP government?

hard to say at this point....but I'd guess that it's more likely than not.

Who knows what in september is? The SPD will be better like in this election, but good enough to make a mayority black/yellow impossible? Who knows? In the time of the crisis the reaction of the people will be doubtful to prognose.

Guido Westerwelle as foreign minister is a nightmare for me and i hope there will be another majority.

Westerwelle as foreign minister would please me


oh, and Tender: other parties got almost 11%.

Senator Franzl wants to go in the Guidomobile

This man is more than a joke, but maybe my next foreign minister. When this come be true it's like sarire in the reality.

[Hans-im-Glück]

This are the results of my hometown:
http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/data/wahlen/wahlen/Europawahl_2009/479000_000048/000479150000.html

[Hans-im-Glück]

Exit Polls for Portugal / RTP

PSD 29-34%   8-9 seats
PS   28-33%   7-8
CDU 9-12%    2-2 
CDS  7-10%   2-2
BE   9-12%     2-3

[Hans-im-Glück]

@Bono

The Psd and the PS have quiet the same votes. The winner is the BE, because 9-12% is a very good result for them. The CDU result is not bad for them and the CDS has the normal votes, not more.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Exit Poll for Bavaria:

CSU                 48,9
SPD                 12,7
Greens            11,3
FDP                   8,6
Left                   2,3
Freie Wähler     7,0

This is a normal result for the CSU, but nothing special. For the SPD is it a disaster. The Greens and the FDP have a good result. The Left isn't exist in Bavaria and the Freie Wähler only exist in Bavaria ;-)

[Hans-im-Glück]

Results of Portugal 2009 (2004). In 2004 the PSD/PPD and the CDS/PP had a combined list.

Açores:  PSD/PPD 40.07 (40.95); PS 32.86 (49.31); CDS/PP 7.75; B.E. 6.43 (1.85); PCP-PEV 3.22 (1.67)
Aveiro: PSD/PPD 37.23 (41.41); PS 23.75 (42.75); CDS/PP 10.65; B.E. 9.72 (3.59); PCP-PEV 5.68 (3.98)
Beja: PCP-PEV 34.84 (29.47); PS 27.67 (45.43); PSD/PPD 13.76 (13.52); B.E. 9.34 (3.25); CDS/PP 4.06

Braga: PSD/PPD 36.17 (38.50); PS 28.67 (46.19); CDS/PP 10.17; B.E. 8.57 (2.95); PCP-PEV 6.84 (4.92)
Bragança: PSD/PPD 46.60 (46.12); PS 24.44 (40.49); CDS/PP 9.69; B.E. 6.63 (2.09); PCP-PEV 4.21 (2.71)
Castelo Branco: PSD/PPD 32.82 (32.12); PS 30.38 (51.28); B.E. 9.86 (3.12); PCP-PEV 7.32 (4.96); CDS/PP 7.07

Coimbra: PSD/PPD 32.52 (32.43); PS 28.44 (48.46); B.E. 11.62 (4.92); PCP-PEV 8.09 (5.99); CDS/PP 6.43
Évora: PCP-PEV 29.40 (26.57); PS 26.37 (44.54); PSD/PPD 18.20 (18.28); B.E. 10.48 (3.32); CDS/PP 5.10
Faro: PSD/PPD 27.39 (27.63); PS 25.02 (49.34); B.E. 14.95 (5.80); PCP-PEV 10.35 (7.84); CDS/PP 7.74

Guarda: PSD/PPD 40.76 (40.18); PS 26.92 (44.79); CDS/PP 8.30; B.E. 7.91 (2.60); PCP-PEV 5.09 (3.13)
Leiria: PSD/PPD 38.33 (44.33); PS 20.46 (36.61); B.E. 10.26 (4.27); CDS/PP 9.35; PCP-PEV 6.48 (5.29)
Lisboa: PS 26.62 (43.71); PSD/PPD 25.96 (29.09); PCP-PEV 12.79 (11.56); B.E. 12.68 (7.61); CDS/PP 8.51

Madeira: PSD/PPD 52.53 (50.27); PS 14.69 (30.60); CDS/PP 8.34; PCP-PEV 6.65 (4.78); B.E. 5.44 (3.16)
Portalegre: PS 31.04 (51.09); PSD/PPD 23.95 (22.94); PCP-PEV 17.91 (15.51); B.E. 9.61 (2.67); CDS/PP 6.20
Porto: PSD/PPD 31.97 (32.79); PS 30.70 (48.46); B.E. 10.43 (4.80); PCP-PEV 8.22 (6.48); CDS/PP 7.98

Santarém: PSD/PPD 28.66 (31.25); PS 25.28 (44.79); B.E. 12.17 (4.48); PCP-PEV 11.91 (10.40); CDS/PP 8.03
Setúbal: PCP-PEV 25.60 (24.90); PS 24.24 (42.71); PSD/PPD 16.45 (17.39); B.E. 14.71 (7.24); CDS/PP 6.38
Viana do Castelo: PSD/PPD 38.35 (40.21); PS 25.62 (42.32); CDS/PP 10.58; B.E. 9.26 (3.48); PCP-PEV 6.20 (5.01)

Vila Real: PSD/PPD 47.38 (44.38); PS 26.28 (42.66); CDS/PP 8.03; B.E. 6.33 (2.27); PCP-PEV 4.35 (2.73)
Viseu: PSD/PPD 43.31 (45.19); PS 24.25 (40.58); CDS/PP 10.17; B.E. 7.91 (2.89); PCP-PEV 4.06 (2.50)

PORTUGAL: PSD/PPD 31.70 (33.26); PS 26.58 (44.54); B.E. 10.73 (4.91); PCP-PEV 10.66 (9.09); CDS/PP 8.37

[Hans-im-Glück]

@Lewis

The FW has more votes in Franconia than in Old-Bavaria, but that has nothing to do with Pauli. Pauli is for the most people a political joke, in northern Bavaria too. The South Bavarians are more traditional in their voting. In the State elections was it the maximum they can get. The Old-Bavarians protest against the politics of the CSU in the State and against the franconian and evangelic-lutheranian primeminister Beckstein.

In the north the people are more disappointed by the CSU (regional politics) and there gives more former SPD voters who vote now for the FW. In Upperfranconia (Bayreuth/Bamberg region) gives another reason. The candidate of the CSU was Monika Hohlmeier (The daughter of FJ Strauß). She is form Upperbavaria and they don't want her as candidate for this region. The CSU make she as top candidate and this wasn't a very good idea. Many people vote then for the FW of the FDP. In some villages the CSU lose 40% and the FW and the FDP gain both nearly 20%