European Elections 2009 (France)
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Author Topic: European Elections 2009 (France)  (Read 49764 times)
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #400 on: June 16, 2009, 03:44:40 PM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.
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Hash
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« Reply #401 on: June 16, 2009, 03:51:54 PM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #402 on: June 16, 2009, 04:51:49 PM »

Hash, I know you've done a map on Rocard, 1969 (with 5 not much discriminating categories). I don't know if you've done a map on Bouchardeau, 1981.

But if you choose well your categories of %, or your groups of departments and your colours, I think you may have something very close to Europe-Ecologie, 2009.

Just an idea, when you REALLY have nothing to do !
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #403 on: June 17, 2009, 04:00:02 AM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

You really should change your nickname, see the effect on the webpages...
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Math
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« Reply #404 on: June 17, 2009, 06:30:11 AM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

I'm very interested too!
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Hash
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« Reply #405 on: June 17, 2009, 06:47:35 AM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

You really should change your nickname, see the effect on the webpages...

Oh, damn. Ought to find another Asterix nickname then.

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

I'm very interested too!

Will send!
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #406 on: June 17, 2009, 07:15:45 AM »

As for me, je suis preneur, Hash !

Send me the spreadsheet by PM.

Sent it via email. It's an Excel spreadsheet, btw.

You really should change your nickname, see the effect on the webpages...

Oh, damn. Ought to find another Asterix nickname then.

Aplusbégalix, or Obélodalix could be makable. Wink
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #407 on: June 17, 2009, 07:41:45 AM »

Ozewiezewozewiezewallakristallix

I don't remember of that one. Which book?
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #408 on: June 17, 2009, 08:41:06 AM »

I was talking about a troubling comparison between Europe-Ecologie 2009, Rocard 1969 and Bouchardeau 1981 maps and then the thread is full of gauloiseries... Grin

Ocatarinetabellatchitchix remains one of the very best (and in line with Hash's newest name...).
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Hash
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« Reply #409 on: June 17, 2009, 08:45:35 AM »

Ozewiezewozewiezewallakristallix

I don't remember of that one. Which book?

Dutch version of Ocatarinetabellatchitchix. I just took it because it's such a weird gibberish-sounding name.

Anyways, I should post some interesting exit poll data this afternoon.
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Hash
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« Reply #410 on: June 17, 2009, 08:59:38 AM »

Ah, the CDSP is officially made of win. Departmental Euro results since 1979 and results by constituency (!) for the latest ones!

Plus the good ol' stuff they offer, like presidential results since 1965.
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Hash
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« Reply #411 on: June 18, 2009, 10:16:27 AM »

Exit poll stuff, only citing those parties over 5% in categories

By Gender
Male: UMP 26, PS 17, GRN 15, MD 10, FN 9, Left 6, NPA 5, Libertas 5
Female: UMP 31, GRN 17, PS 17, Left 7, MD 6, Libertas 5, NPA 5

Age
18-24: UMP 21, FN 20, GRN 18, MD 11, PS 11, NPA 8
25-34: GRN 22, PS 16, UMP 14, FN 13, MD 11, AEI 8, NPA 8
25-49: GRN 24, UMP 17, PS 16, MD 11, NPA 7, FN 5, Left 5, Libertas 5
50-64: UMP 27, PS 22, GRN 16, Left 9, Libertas 7, NPA 6, MD 5
65+: UMP 44, PS 15, GRN 8, MD 8, Left 6, Libertas 6, FN 5

Socio-Professional Category
PCS+: GRN 26, UMP 22, PS 17, MD 10, Left 6
-Artisans etc: UMP 38, GRN 16, Libertas 8, PS 8, MD 7, DLR 6, FN 5, Left 5
-CPIS: GRN 32, UMP 24, PS 15, MD 12, Left 6
-Intermediary Prof: GRN 24, PS 21, UMP 14, MD 10, NPA 7, Left 6, AEI 6
PCS-: PS 17, GRN 17, UMP 17, FN 14, NPA 10, MD 8, Left 6
-Employee: GRN 24, PS 23, UMP 21, MD 11, NPA 9, Left 5
-Manual Workers: FN 21, UMP 15, PS 13, GRN 13, NPA 11, Left 6, MD 6, LO 5
Retirees: UMP 38, PS 17, GRN 8, Libertas 8, MD 7, Left 7, FN 6

Party ID and Ideology
Left + Far Left: PS 38, GRN 27, Left 12, NPA 10,
-Far Left: NPA 49, Left 12, GRN 11, LO 10, PS 8
-PCF: Left 77, PS 11
-PS: PS 62, GRN 20, Left 5
-Green Party: GRN 73, MD 15
MoDem: MD 71, GRN 10, UMP 9
Right + Far Right: UMP 67, FN 14, Libertas 9
-UMP: UMP 85
-FN: FN 88

Diploma
No Certifications: UMP 33, PS 18, FN 9, Left 8, GRN 7, AEI 7, Libertas 7, MD 5
BEPC, CAP, BEP: UMP 30, PS 14, FN 11, GRN 10, Libertas 9, NPA 7, Left 6
BAC: UMP 30, PS 16, GRN 15, FN 11, MD 7, Left 5, NPA 5
Higher Education: UMP 26, GRN 23, PS 19, MD 12, Left 6, NPA 5

2007 Vote
Anti-Liberal Left: Left 36, NPA 21, GRN 19, PS 10, AEI 7
-Besancenot: NPA 40, GRN 20, AEI 14, Left 10, Others 8, PS 6
-Buffet: Left 91
Royal: PS 46, GRN 26, Left 9, NPA 6
Voynet: GRN 87, PS 8, UMP 5
Bayrou: MD 43, GRN 20, UMP 12, PS 8
Sarkozy: UMP 74, Libertas 7
Le Pen: FN 78, Libertas 12
Royal/Runoff: PS 36, GRN 27, Left 13, NPA 8, MD 7
Sarko/Runoff: UMP 58, FN 8, Libertas 8, MD 7, GRN 6

2005 Vote
YES: UMP 42, PS 19, GRN 16, MD 9
NO: Left 17, PS 15, GRN 15, FN 12, NPA 9, Libertas 8, MD 6

2004 Euros Vote
PS Lists: PS 54, GRN 23, MD 8, Left 6
UDF Lists: UMP 56, MD 27, GRN 15



Party Data

(as percentage of party's electorate)

Most Disproportionately Male: FN 74%, MD 64%
Most Disproportionately Female: DLR 62%
Female Majority Electorates: Left (51), GRN (52), AEI (54), UMP (54), DLR (62), Libertas (52), OTH (51)

Most Disproportionately PCS+: Greens 55%
Most Disproportionately PCS-: LO 64%
Most Disproportionately Retired: Libertas 71%, UMP 61%

Most Disproportionately Educated: MD 62% have higher education, Greens 61%

Most Disproportionately Pro-EU (2005 YES): UMP 72%
Most Disproportionately Anti-EU (2005 NO): Left 81%



Motivations and Interest

Interest in Campaign: NO 76 / YES 24
-Most Interested: UMP 62%, Left 60%
-Least Interested: FN 68%, NPA 53%

Vote to express support in gov't: 30% (UMP 81%)
Vote to express discontent in gov't: 45% (Left 84%)
Did not vote based on gov't: 23% (Green 37%)

Voted based on European issues: 60% (Green 77%)
Voted based on French issues: 36% (FN 70%, NPA 65%)

"Attached" to EU: 53% (MD 89%, Green 88%, UMP 86%)
Not "Attached": 46%

Reforms should speed up: 32%
Slow down: 27%
Maintain at current rate: 35%

52% of PS voters say the PS is not left-wing enough
28% of PS voters say the PS should be close to MD/Greens; 27% say the party should decide based on issues, 26% say the party should do neither

http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2009.06.07-sondage-jour-du-vote.pdf
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #412 on: June 18, 2009, 05:05:32 PM »

Look at 18-24 ! OMG, there's hope for the right !
And manual workers... not good for the left and even for the UMP...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #413 on: June 19, 2009, 03:13:14 AM »

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HuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuh


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Wow, that's also surprising !
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #414 on: June 19, 2009, 04:06:53 AM »

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HuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuhHuh


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Wow, that's also surprising !

DLR sample may be... tiny, very tiny. So, I wouldn't conclude anything.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #415 on: June 19, 2009, 09:19:18 AM »


The most important concerning this category, and one of the most important things concerning this election too, is this figure: 81% of abstention by 18-24, it may explain the results inside voters...
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