LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[Lunar]

you had my hopes up insanely before I saw the question mark at the end of your thread title.

I had actually cast out some google news nets today with all of Vitter's likely challengers and it's all nothing new.

Melancon is keeping his ears open, since he wants to be ready to upgrade, but he doesn't seem willing to fight an uphill battle the first off-year after Obama is in office in one of the least Obama-friendly states.  Charlie would be forced to fend his ground from two sides.

Most politicos don't expect him to run.  It'd be a coup of high proportions if he did, there's no one else we could run against that diaper fetish family values guy.

[Lunar]

I've indirectly heard from a number of articles that claim that there's a consensus among LA political analysts that the state wouldn't elect two Landrieu's to the senate at the same time.

The Landrieu name isn't political gold, but it helps to have a Cajun last name if you're running against an Irishman (Vitter is also Cajun, for what it's worth, although that doesn't matter for more than a point or what have you).  The senate race was an oddball campaign with both sides accusing the other person of being a liberal Democrat.

[Lunar]

Anyhooo, Melancon won't run unless Vitter creates an opening, a major issue for Melancon to run on  besides "my opponent is an adulterer with a diaper fetish."

I'm not sure exactly how Vitter has recovered so amazingly well politically besides switching to voting to the right of DeMint.  Rest assured, future politicians will thoroughly examine his model.

[Lunar]

I think y'all are underrating Melancon's candidacy, should he run.  Vitter has started voting at the #1 most conservative in the Senate, which gives some room for a well-run Blue Dog campaign to pick up Lousiana's center.

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

While Vitter may be tempted since it'll allow him to engage in his diaper fetishes with prostitutes back home without getting media attention, I doubt that would be compelling enough of a reason.

[Lunar]

Reminder, baseline, 48-41 for Vitter, he has 49/42 favorability split.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/3/4/LA/262

His numbers, should the entire public become aware of some of his issues, such as him illegally seeking the company of prostitutes to fulfill the fetishes his wife won't or him putting a hold on the FEMA director weeks before hurricane season for no reason except to raise campaign funds (he had to quit once the Democrats started making ads against him on the issue), would be lower than that baseline.

Remember his scandal happened a couple years ago, the public needs reminders for such things.

[Lunar]

Remember his scandal happened a couple years ago, the public needs reminders for such things.

I think if the public really needs a reminder of a scandal, it's not actually much of a scandal anymore. That being said, I don't want him as the nominee because he's been humiliating and I'd rather not take a chance with him.

Oh, we'll see, this will be sort of a test case.  Senators are low profile enough that after a few years people simply need to be reminded why they were disgusted at them in the first place.

My point wasn't that Vitter would tank because he likes to dress up in diapers with prostitutes, only that this, plus a few other things (his hard shift to the right to stem off a potential primary challenge, delaying the FEMA nominee for no reason as hurricane season is approaching, hell, even being one of only two to vote against Hillary for SoS), that his hard bottom isn't as low as the numbers would otherwise indicate.

You're right to a large extent though, the prostitutes thing will be an order of magnitude less powerful, even with a reminder, than it would have been if it occurred in September or October before election day.  It's simply one of a parade of issues I doubt the LA public is even thinking about as they answer a poll question this week but they may otherwise be thinking about on election day, if the Democratic campaign is well run.

[Lunar]

Any chance Jindal tries to take out Vitter?  That would be an interesting primary to see.

let's not be silly

[Lunar]

howdy y'all

quick lesson on LA politics:

Everyone knows how Bubba and Tyrone vote

Cajuns are the determining factor.

bye.

[Lunar]

I've been trying to understand this Melancon thing in my head -- why would he be more interested now than earlier this year in running for this seat?  Vitter's favorables have remained solid, and although he's shifted far to the right, he's also avoided a messy primary challenge from someone like the LA secretary of state or the family council dude.  With Obama in the White House, this seems like a horrible idea.

However, I think the LA redistricting establishment has set their sites 110% on defeating Melancon and he was tipped off.  If he thinks he has a 55% at keeping his House seat, and a 40% at grabbing a Senate seat, the calculation easily favors the latter, especially when you consider running statewide with national backing is a lot more fun than fighting to hang onto the gerrymandered remains of half of your old district or what have you.

I mean, hell, the GOP is looking to get a strong challenger out next year and is jetting their local recruiting power on this race, before redistricting even kicks in.  Melancon's odds at staying in Congress could actually be the same or better trying to go for the Senate instead of staying in the House, it's hard to tell at this point before the dust settles.  Rest assured though, Melancon will want to milk all kinds of national fundraising promises in the mean time, no need to play his hand quickly.

[Lunar]

I believe the governor's office still has a lot of sway in LA, and they are going all-out trying to recruit and fund a challenger to him for the 2010 cycle anyhoo

[Lunar]

Charlie Melancon's last name is pronounced muh-LAW-saw.  Wow.

excellent.