LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[Badger]

I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is) and I'm meaning to make a road trip down there to visit her sometime, but not if they don't like "my kind" down there, and by my kind, I mean well, anything other than WASP conservative Republican straight men.

La. is one of the more socially conservative states and Obama being one of the most liberal candidates in recent history had no chance.

Since Kerry at least. Or Gore. Or even (according to Republicans in the 90's) Clinton.

[Lunar]

howdy y'all

quick lesson on LA politics:

Everyone knows how Bubba and Tyrone vote

Cajuns are the determining factor.

bye.

[minionofmidas]

I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is)

WASP conservative Republican straight posh suburb across Lake Pontchartrain from New Orleans.

[hcallega]

howdy y'all

quick lesson on LA politics:

Everyone knows how Bubba and Tyrone vote

Cajuns are the determining factor.

bye.

Yes sir. But being down in South Louisiana a couple of years ago the cajun identity is not as strong as it was in the days of good ole' Edwin W. Edwards. That being said they are a very unpredictable group. If it's a decisive election one way or another then they generally go with the flow, however in close elections they are anyone's guess. They were fairly even in the senate race, slightly favoring Landrieu (who is not Cajun, she's Creole. I'm half Cajun). Melancon (who is Cajun) would have a decent chance, if only because he is Cajun, moderate-conservative, and a strong campaigner. However he should stay in the house if only not to leave the Democrats without any seats, though it's likely they'll win back the second.

[Lunar]

I've been trying to understand this Melancon thing in my head -- why would he be more interested now than earlier this year in running for this seat?  Vitter's favorables have remained solid, and although he's shifted far to the right, he's also avoided a messy primary challenge from someone like the LA secretary of state or the family council dude.  With Obama in the White House, this seems like a horrible idea.

However, I think the LA redistricting establishment has set their sites 110% on defeating Melancon and he was tipped off.  If he thinks he has a 55% at keeping his House seat, and a 40% at grabbing a Senate seat, the calculation easily favors the latter, especially when you consider running statewide with national backing is a lot more fun than fighting to hang onto the gerrymandered remains of half of your old district or what have you.

I mean, hell, the GOP is looking to get a strong challenger out next year and is jetting their local recruiting power on this race, before redistricting even kicks in.  Melancon's odds at staying in Congress could actually be the same or better trying to go for the Senate instead of staying in the House, it's hard to tell at this point before the dust settles.  Rest assured though, Melancon will want to milk all kinds of national fundraising promises in the mean time, no need to play his hand quickly.

[Mr.Phips]

I've been trying to understand this Melancon thing in my head -- why would he be more interested now than earlier this year in running for this seat?  Vitter's favorables have remained solid, and although he's shifted far to the right, he's also avoided a messy primary challenge from someone like the LA secretary of state or the family council dude.  With Obama in the White House, this seems like a horrible idea.

However, I think the LA redistricting establishment has set their sites 110% on defeating Melancon and he was tipped off.  If he thinks he has a 55% at keeping his House seat, and a 40% at grabbing a Senate seat, the calculation easily favors the latter, especially when you consider running statewide with national backing is a lot more fun than fighting to hang onto the gerrymandered remains of half of your old district or what have you.

I mean, hell, the GOP is looking to get a strong challenger out next year and is jetting their local recruiting power on this race, before redistricting even kicks in.  Melancon's odds at staying in Congress could actually be the same or better trying to go for the Senate instead of staying in the House, it's hard to tell at this point before the dust settles.  Rest assured though, Melancon will want to milk all kinds of national fundraising promises in the mean time, no need to play his hand quickly.

Democrats control the state House and Senate and will almost certainly block any redistricting plan that would have hurt Melancon. 

[Lunar]

I believe the governor's office still has a lot of sway in LA, and they are going all-out trying to recruit and fund a challenger to him for the 2010 cycle anyhoo

[Mr.Phips]

I believe the governor's office still has a lot of sway in LA, and they are going all-out trying to recruit and fund a challenger to him for the 2010 cycle anyhoo

They wouldnt beat him in LA-03 in its current form.  They ran a popular state Senator from the most heavily Democratic parts of the district in 2006 and Melancon beat him by almost 20 points. 

[DemocratsVictory2008]

In terms of advertisements this race would be great. The dems have nothing to lose in a state Obama lost by 19 points and is clearly trending GOP. The strategy would be to attack, attack and attack Vitter for using a hooker lol

[Brittain33]

Democrats control the state House and Senate and will almost certainly block any redistricting plan that would have hurt Melancon. 

Party ID is quite weak in the Louisiana legislature and you have committee chairs and even chamber leaders who come from the minority party. A coalition of Republicans and conservative outstate Dems working with Bobby Jindal could easily decide to cast Melancon adrift... and strictly speaking, his district is the logical one to go given the population loss and need for a NO-based district.

[Saxwsylvania]

Charlie Melancon's last name is pronounced muh-LAW-saw.  Wow.

[Lunar]

Charlie Melancon's last name is pronounced muh-LAW-saw.  Wow.

excellent.

[Ronnie]

Charlie Melancon's last name is pronounced muh-LAW-saw.  Wow.

Ha ha, I discovered it today as well, without even looking at your post.