LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) to Challenge David Vitter (R)?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Melancon Set to Challenge Vitter
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/06/19/melancon_set_to_challenge_vitter.html

While he is not ready to make a public announcement, John Maginnis reports Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) has decided to run for the U.S. Senate. Sources say he "he has told national Democratic campaign officials" he will challenge Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) in 2010.

"While Melancon earlier this year seemed to have ruled out running, a renewed press by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, armed with a poll showing Vitter's vulnerability, got Melancon to reconsider."

Fantastic.  Even if he doesn't win, he'll force the RSCC to spend money there, instead of in places like KY, MO, CO, etc.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

[Lunar]

I think y'all are underrating Melancon's candidacy, should he run.  Vitter has started voting at the #1 most conservative in the Senate, which gives some room for a well-run Blue Dog campaign to pick up Lousiana's center.

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

While Vitter may be tempted since it'll allow him to engage in his diaper fetishes with prostitutes back home without getting media attention, I doubt that would be compelling enough of a reason.

[Brandon H]

If Melancon were to run and the GOP picked up that House seat and assuming that Joseph Cao gets reelected (which I don't think he will), that would give the GOP every Congressional seat in Louisiana, wouldn't it?

Yes.


I'm predicting that after the 2010 census redistricting, districts 1, 2, and 3 will end up as two districts. And I'm right in the middle of that area right now so there is no telling who my rep. will be after 2012. I'd take Scalise over either Cao or Melancon right now though. I just hope I don't end up with someone like Karen Carter (more liberal than Jefferson who was the most liberal of La. Congressional Delegation and lost in run-off to Jefferson in 2006).

I don't see Melancon beating Vitter in a Senate race. State Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is the most likely challenger for Melancon's seat.

[Mr.Phips]

If Melancon were to run and the GOP picked up that House seat and assuming that Joseph Cao gets reelected (which I don't think he will), that would give the GOP every Congressional seat in Louisiana, wouldn't it?

Yes.


I'm predicting that after the 2010 census redistricting, districts 1, 2, and 3 will end up as two districts. And I'm right in the middle of that area right now so there is no telling who my rep. will be after 2012. I'd take Scalise over either Cao or Melancon right now though. I just hope I don't end up with someone like Karen Carter (more liberal than Jefferson who was the most liberal of La. Congressional Delegation and lost in run-off to Jefferson in 2006).

I don't see Melancon beating Vitter in a Senate race. State Rep. Nickie Monica (R) is the most likely challenger for Melancon's seat.

There is no way Cao is being reelected in LA-02, especially now that it looks like Vitter is getting a real challenge and will be lucky to break 30% in the district even if he wins big statewide. 

[bgwah]

Melaoncon...

Melon, colon cancer

f8ck

[minionofmidas]

Melaoncon...

Melon, colon cancer

f8ck

It's Melançon. (Not spelled that way, but pronounced that way.)

[bgwah]

It just disappoints me that melons cause colon cancer... I will never again eat a melon, the poison, the death of man kind... the fruit of evil that only the anti-Christ would eat!

[Rob]

the fruit of evil that only the anti-Christ would eat!

Are you sure that George W. Bush eats melons?

[Rowan]

Reminder, baseline, 48-41 for Vitter, he has 49/42 favorability split.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/3/4/LA/262

[Keystone Phil]

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

This wouldn't even be pulling a Bob Torricelli. We can actually primary Vitter. 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Will Vitter survive the upstart primary challenge from Stormy Daniels?!

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Will Vitter survive the upstart primary challenge from Stormy Daniels?!

If someone were to primary Vitter it would be someone like Scalise who could steal his base in the 1st District, Boustany(God I hope not, He supports Amnesty), and finaly Dardenne who has won statewide a few times.

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

This wouldn't even be pulling a Bob Torricelli. We can actually primary Vitter. 

Yes but the primary challenger might lose, so I would prefer first Vitter to retire for the good of a damage party, unlikely. We can primary him as you say but it isn't Guarrenteed and I would prefer Vitter over one of the challengers. Finally we can rally to Vitter lose a million or two precious dollars from the NRSC, and win a narrow 4 to 5 point victory.

[Keystone Phil]

Yes but the primary challenger might lose, so I would prefer first Vitter to retire for the good of a damage party, unlikely. We can primary him as you say but it isn't Guarrenteed and I would prefer Vitter over one of the challengers. Finally we can rally to Vitter lose a million or two precious dollars from the NRSC, and win a narrow 4 to 5 point victory.

I understand we can force him to retire. I'm just saying we have a lot more time so it isn't "pulling a Torricelli" (who was removed from the ballot after the deadline).

[Rowan]

Vitter will be fine, Louisiana is trending Republican unlike most states.

[Lunar]

Reminder, baseline, 48-41 for Vitter, he has 49/42 favorability split.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/3/4/LA/262

His numbers, should the entire public become aware of some of his issues, such as him illegally seeking the company of prostitutes to fulfill the fetishes his wife won't or him putting a hold on the FEMA director weeks before hurricane season for no reason except to raise campaign funds (he had to quit once the Democrats started making ads against him on the issue), would be lower than that baseline.

Remember his scandal happened a couple years ago, the public needs reminders for such things.

[Keystone Phil]

Remember his scandal happened a couple years ago, the public needs reminders for such things.

I think if the public really needs a reminder of a scandal, it's not actually much of a scandal anymore. That being said, I don't want him as the nominee because he's been humiliating and I'd rather not take a chance with him.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I think if the public really needs a reminder of a scandal, it's not actually much of a scandal anymore. That being said, I don't want him as the nominee because he's been humiliating and I'd rather not take a chance with him.

^^^ This.

[Lunar]

Remember his scandal happened a couple years ago, the public needs reminders for such things.

I think if the public really needs a reminder of a scandal, it's not actually much of a scandal anymore. That being said, I don't want him as the nominee because he's been humiliating and I'd rather not take a chance with him.

Oh, we'll see, this will be sort of a test case.  Senators are low profile enough that after a few years people simply need to be reminded why they were disgusted at them in the first place.

My point wasn't that Vitter would tank because he likes to dress up in diapers with prostitutes, only that this, plus a few other things (his hard shift to the right to stem off a potential primary challenge, delaying the FEMA nominee for no reason as hurricane season is approaching, hell, even being one of only two to vote against Hillary for SoS), that his hard bottom isn't as low as the numbers would otherwise indicate.

You're right to a large extent though, the prostitutes thing will be an order of magnitude less powerful, even with a reminder, than it would have been if it occurred in September or October before election day.  It's simply one of a parade of issues I doubt the LA public is even thinking about as they answer a poll question this week but they may otherwise be thinking about on election day, if the Democratic campaign is well run.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Despite his fancy for diapers and hookers, isn't David Vitter still kinda popular in Louisiana? I mean, last time I consulted with the Bible, fornicating with prostitutes isn't exactly what "Christians" preach.

That being said, why is Louisiana becoming more Republican? Last statistics I saw had Louisiana as the second blackest state in the nation (only behind Mississippi), and it was one of five states in which John McCain did better than George W. Bush. Is it because of Hurricane Katrina that displaced many African Americans, or is the Bubba vote growing and just too strong for Democrats to overcome? I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is) and I'm meaning to make a road trip down there to visit her sometime, but not if they don't like "my kind" down there, and by my kind, I mean well, anything other than WASP conservative Republican straight men.

[Brittain33]

Time to play like the Democrats, lets pull a Bob Torriceli. Swap Vitter for Dardenne or Scalise. Guaranteed 12 to 15 point GOP victory.

Vitter has never had the support of the Republican Party in Louisiana. They'd be happy to "swap him out" but he has absolutely no reason to play along, especially when he's still doing reasonably well in polls.

It's an interesting artifact, but irrelevant, that Vitter is still the only Republican to have won election to the Senate from Louisiana. (There may have been appointees during the Reconstruction era).

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Any chance Jindal tries to take out Vitter?  That would be an interesting primary to see.

[Lunar]

Any chance Jindal tries to take out Vitter?  That would be an interesting primary to see.

let's not be silly

[Brandon H]

I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is) and I'm meaning to make a road trip down there to visit her sometime, but not if they don't like "my kind" down there, and by my kind, I mean well, anything other than WASP conservative Republican straight men.

Slidell is on the other side of Lake Pounchatrain from New Orleans where my parents are currently living. Nice place.

I'm sure you'll be fine even if you're not a WASP conservative Republican straight men. Most of the people I know aren't.

La. is one of the more socially conservative states and Obama being one of the most liberal candidates in recent history had no chance.

[Mr.Phips]

Despite his fancy for diapers and hookers, isn't David Vitter still kinda popular in Louisiana? I mean, last time I consulted with the Bible, fornicating with prostitutes isn't exactly what "Christians" preach.

That being said, why is Louisiana becoming more Republican? Last statistics I saw had Louisiana as the second blackest state in the nation (only behind Mississippi), and it was one of five states in which John McCain did better than George W. Bush. Is it because of Hurricane Katrina that displaced many African Americans, or is the Bubba vote growing and just too strong for Democrats to overcome? I'm asking sincerely because my cousin recently relocated to Louisiana but lives in Slidell (wherever that is) and I'm meaning to make a road trip down there to visit her sometime, but not if they don't like "my kind" down there, and by my kind, I mean well, anything other than WASP conservative Republican straight men.

The white vote in the state is probably too much for any Democrat to overcome in the state these days.  Even with the Obama led surge in black turnout in 2008, blacks still made up just 29% of the electorate up from 26% in 2004(which it will likely be around in 2010).  If the blacks showed up in the same proportion of the electorate that they did in 2004, Mary Landrieu would have only beat John Kennedy by a tiny 48%-47% margin, even as she was getting a healthy 33% of the white vote.  Obama got just 14% of the white vote.  Melancon is going to have to do at least as well as Landrieu with whites to beat Vitter.