Potential Post-2010 Consequences

[Brettsky]

I've been thinking over the coming midterms and the potential consequences of the results.  The GOP will really need to regroup and adjust its platform toward moderate folks if they want to compete again, and a good thing too.  Consider the following:

1) They are likely to lose 4+ Senate seats again.
2) The governor races will likely put Democrats in charge of big and growing states (CA, FL, AZ, NV) and the GOP in charge of less-populated ones (WY, KS, TN, OK).
3) Redistricting is coming up immediately afterward.
4) Although red states are trending toward greater numbers of congressional seats, this trend is likely to be drowned by greater demographic changes-- increases in Hispanic and Asian populations as well as the continuing rise of younger (more liberal) generations into the voting ranks.
5) The Democrats have clearly established their party as the big tent, while Republicans continue to commit fratricide toward centrists, despite all evidence suggesting this is poor strategy.

So to all remaining Republicans out there, I urge you to PLEASE find party positions to moderate on, for the good of your party and the good of our country.  The environment would be a good place to start.  REAL fiscally responsible policy would also help (as opposed to just cutting taxes all the time).  Some tolerance (moderation on social issues) toward those different from the base wouldn't hurt either.  The votes need to be picked up somewhere-- it's a good time to start lookin'!

[Brettsky]

To Vander Blubb:  At present, I agree with you-- no one seems to care about the environment.  All attention is on the economy.  But when the recession eventually subsides, we'll turn our attention to other things.  And it's only a matter of time-- the environment isn't getting better, it's gradually worsening.  Will we be smart enough to avert the really serious problems before they arrive, or we will we choose not to care?  Most young people coming into the voting ranks over the next 10 years will tend to care.  So the GOP will have to choose between holding the hard line on everything, or attempting to appeal to this new generation of voters based on the issues they care about.  The current GOP platform has no hope with these voters, so it will have to be adjusted at some point.

To Lunar:  Your specifics are helpful, thanks for your input.  I don't know what I think about Kentucky yet-- but you do have a point.  I seriously doubt they will throw out Harry Reid in Nevada.  There doesn't seem to be a viable candidate to run against him, and he's the most powerful legislator they have.  I think NV will stick with him in the end.  And I don't buy into Rob Portman being this amazing candidate.  It should definitely be close though.  I guess my take on the governors is it will be a wash on Wednesday morning, but the Democrats should have some big prizes to replace whatever they lose in KS, OK, TN, etc.  I did not know "Freudy" is running again in WY.  I know he was considering it, but did not hear it was official.  If so, great.

[Brettsky]

Yes, Portman as the Budget Director was not a successful venture, and the Dems will have this blaring on TV ads for sure.  After looking at his website though, he has some things going for him in terms of government experience and issue moderation (Nature Conservancy & National parks involvement, Methodist, etc.)  I can see why the GOP lined up behind up quickly, he's probably their best shot at retaining the seat.  This is definitely a toss-up race, and it'll be exciting to follow.

I'm most curious right now as to whether or not all of this terrible polling on Dodd and Reid will actually translate into election losses-- will voters really punish these guys?  CT and NV are not South Dakota in 2004 (Daschle).  I don't see another John Thune riding in on a horse to win one for the GOP in NV.  C'mon-- Obama won NV by 18%.  This represents a shift, even compensating for the effects of the economic collapse.  Voter turnout will be a big factor in this race.  And Rob Simmons in CT?  I guess it's possible, but I'm not convinced voters will stay that angry at Dodd for that long.  Certainly a toss-up at this point, but I doubt it stays that way.

I still say 4+ seats to the Dems.