Brettsky, you got the general thrust of things right, but your specifics are off.
First of all, I believe Freudy over in Wyoming is running for a clear third term, right?
Secondly, a 4+ seat gain would be very impressive for Democrats. Sure, current odds are that they'll get New Hampshire and Missouri, but Portman in Ohio is no joke, and Florida and Kentucky are tilting away from the Democrats...and Connecticut and Nevada are increasingly putting us on the defensive. If Coburn retires or if KBH in Texas retires at the perfect time, that could represent a seat or two, but it all takes a perfect storm which is relatively unlikely to occur.
I don't see why the Democrats are likely to take control of Arizona, who are we even running there? Harry Reid's unpopularity has a 50/50 chance of sinking Rory Read's chances at the governor's slot, but it depends on whether or not Gibbons can defeat Joe Heck in the NV GOP primary.
Oklahoma could be competitive but Kansas and Tennessee are lost causes.
Florida is a tossup at the moment between McCollum and Sink until we can see the race develop further.
The Republicans, actually, are pushing the "big tent" theme far more than the Democrats this cycle. While the Democrats were far better at it in the past, the Republicans are nationally sponsoring pro-life candidates like Simmons and Kirk, as well as pro-stimulus Crist in Florida. Frazier over in Colorado represents exactly what the GOP platform needs to be in Colorado, but his profile is low enough that he may be replaced by an unelectable right-winger. Whatever. I don't know of any "big tent" candidates on the Democratic side unless Bob Menendez can get Blue Dog Schuler to reconsider running in North Carolina now that Cooper has dropped out
Mark Steven Kirk is pro-choice.
"Kirk is co-chair of the Moderate Republican "Tuesday Group," a coalition of 40 centrist Republican Member of Congress. Kirk is a member of some moderate to liberal Republican groups such as the Republican Main Street Partnership, the Republican Majority for Choice, Republicans for Choice, the Republican Leadership Council, and Republicans for Environmental Protection."
http://www.tgpac.com/docs/pages/about_us.aspx
