A sort of challenge/project for myself (Dakotas-involved)

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here it is, awhile ago RBH posted a map of a hypothetical state of Dakota containing both North and South Dakota with a gerrymandered for the hell of it map of two districts.

What I'm wondering is if that can be drawn, with one district that Obama won. I'm almost certain it's possible, I'm just wondering how big his victory could be made and how lopsided it'd be.

I'll try this later tonight likely, but anyone else is free to.

[Devilman88]

I'm not sure the true percentage, but I know Obama would have won the yellow district.

[Brittain33]

Here's a question. Can it be done with Shannon County and that Native American county in southwestern North Dakota both in the district? You need to draw a bridge across the southern border of South Dakota, and I don't know if it can be done without swallowing up too many McCain votes.

I spent far too much time mousing over western North Dakota trying to find Pennington County!

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm not sure the true percentage, but I know Obama would have won the yellow district.

Are the districts equal in population though?

I'm about to try

[Devilman88]

I'm not sure the true percentage, but I know Obama would have won the yellow district.

Are the districts equal in population though?

I'm about to try

Yes they are, the yellow district has 727,645 and the blue district has 718,030

[muon2]

I'm not sure the true percentage, but I know Obama would have won the yellow district.

Are the districts equal in population though?

I'm about to try

Yes they are, the yellow district has 727,645 and the blue district has 718,030

That's probably not close enough to satisfy a court for a partisan gerrymander. The districts probably should be at least within a thousand to be on the safe side.

[Linus Van Pelt]

The weird thing is, though this is obviously a Democratic gerrymander, it would actually benefit the Republicans.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here's the similar map I drew, Obama gets 50.46% in the eastern district and there's only about a ~500 population difference.



Here's a harder one, not sure if it's possible: Drawing another Obama district from a Montana/Wyoming combination.

[Alcon]

Probably wouldn't be impossible if you split counties and whored it up with Indian reservations, Missoula, Bozeman, Jackson.  Probably would be ugly in all senses.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Here's the most difficult thing: You would need Park County to include Teton, and Park's margin for McCain was actually larger than Teton's for Obama. Still would probably be a must.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Wasn't that hard or messy actually:



The red district gives Obama 49.58% and McCain 47.30%, and they're less than 400 people apart (by 2007 estimates I should note.)

[Alcon]

That district looks a lot less messy on a county map than it is in geographical terms Well done.

[Nym90]

The weird thing is, though this is obviously a Democratic gerrymander, it would actually benefit the Republicans.

Yep. Do Pomeroy and Herseth-Sandlin both live in the eastern district? Even if not, both would have definite problems in the western district.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Pomeroy lives in the west, Herseth lives in the east, an if you look at previous results and maps, both could easily win the western district.

[Verily]

Here's the most difficult thing: You would need Park County to include Teton, and Park's margin for McCain was actually larger than Teton's for Obama. Still would probably be a must.

As your own map shows, you don't actually need Park County to include Teton and make it contiguous, although without Park the district looks much uglier. You could probably get the red district to more than 50% Obama with some fiddling along the edges (exchanging some stronger McCain counties for weaker ones).

[Nym90]

Pomeroy lives in the west, Herseth lives in the east, an if you look at previous results and maps, both could easily win the western district.

True, though the fact that Pomeroy has had joke opponents, which would perhaps become less likely with this configuration, probably has something to do with it.

The Montana/Wyoming gerrymander would probably give the Dems a good shot at one seat. Do either of the Reps from those states live in that Obama district?

[Verily]

Pomeroy lives in the west, Herseth lives in the east, an if you look at previous results and maps, both could easily win the western district.

True, though the fact that Pomeroy has had joke opponents, which would perhaps become less likely with this configuration, probably has something to do with it.

The Montana/Wyoming gerrymander would probably give the Dems a good shot at one seat. Do either of the Reps from those states live in that Obama district?

Rehberg lives in Billings. (Yes.)

[memphis]

Tougher challenge: Gerrymander New England to include a McCain district.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Tougher challenge: Gerrymander New England to include a McCain district.

Not possible, only one county in New England McCain won. It'd be like trying to draw a McCain district in Manhattan.

[Nym90]

Tougher challenge: Gerrymander New England to include a McCain district.

Not possible, only one county in New England McCain won. It'd be like trying to draw a McCain district in Manhattan.

It might technically be possible if you strung together enough McCain towns, but you'd probably need every town he won in all of New England. It'd be the ugliest gerrymander ever....even worse than some of those Southern districts that were hundreds of miles long and as wide as a freeway for long stretches.

Whereas McCain didn't win even a single precinct in Manhattan, so that one is literally impossible.

EDIT: Actually McCain won one precinct that had all of 3 votes. Hmm.

[Verily]

Well, here's the New England (+New York) municipality map. Have fun trying to craft a McCain district out of those results. You probably could do it, connecting the Republican areas of northern and eastern Maine through the uninhabited areas to central-southern New Hampshire and then in a collar around Boston through Worcester County to get the South Shore towns.

Those might not even be necessary; NH-01 was not that strong for Obama, so replacing the Portsmouth area with Republican areas in Maine and northeast Massachusetts could suffice.