D internal: Carnahan out in front of GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2009/05/a-carnahan-advantage-in-missouri-senate-race/

D: 53 Blunt 44 
D: 54 Steelman 42

[Ronnie]

*In before semocrat08*

[Joe Biden 2020]

Nice numbers.  Keep it up, Robin!  Mop the floor with your challenger!!!

[HAnnA MArin County]

*In before semocrat08*

LOL yep you beat me to this one Ronnie! but, I did already see this poll. I believe Lunar posted it on some other thread. It's going to be an uphill battle for any Republican to hold this seat against Robin Carnahan, but lots can change between now and 11.02.10. Elections in Missouri are historically always close (save for our gubernatorial race in 2008 when Jay Nixon mopped the floor with Kenny Hulshof, beating him by 19 points) but I think it's pretty safe to say that Robin definitely enters as the early favorite and has some clear advantages over all her challengers, Republican and Democratic alike.

Speaking of Democratic challengers, I read somewhere where U.S. Rep. William Lacy Clay Jr. (D, MO-01) of St. Louis is thinking about entering the race as well. I hope he doesn't; it'd really divide the party. He'd probably get all the African American vote but Robin would take the white vote and would swamp him in the rural parts of the state and the St. Louis and Kansas City suburbs. Robin has better name recognition statewide and with her last name, she would undoubtedly defeat Clay.

Go Robin go!

[Brittain33]

I made this comment on forum 11.0--any poll showing 3-4% undecided 18 months before the election has got some problems.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I made this comment on forum 11.0--any poll showing 3-4% undecided 18 months before the election has got some problems.

That may be true but keep in mind the candidates who are running with their last names are known throughout the entire state. I don't know if everyone throughout the state knows that Roy Blunt is Matt Blunt's father or brother or what, but I'm sure they can deduce that the two are related, either of which poses problems for Roy because Matt was a terribly unpopular governor after he removed people from Medicare/Medicaid and attempted to privatize public secondary education. Everyone knows that Robin is the daughter of Mel Carnahan and that is probably why she is leading in all of the polls and will be the key to her victory in November 2010.

I, too, question the validity of this poll because I think Robin will crush Blunt by far more than 9 points and Steelman, heck, may be a repeat of the Nixon-Hulshof thumpin'.

[Badger]

I made this comment on forum 11.0--any poll showing 3-4% undecided 18 months before the election has got some problems.

I, too, question the validity of this poll because I think Robin will crush Blunt by far more than 9 points and Steelman, heck, may be a repeat of the Nixon-Hulshof thumpin'.

Do I understand you to believe that Blunt would likely do better--and substantially so--against Carnahan? I'm interested to hear more from an actual Missourian such as yourself as this is contrary to all conventional wisdom posted thus far--by both Democrats and Republicans alike. I'm no expert on Show-Me State politics, but my take on it thus far is Steelman:

a) is considered a hair more moderate than Blunt
b) can better compete for women voters against Carnahan (for obvious reasons), and
c) doesn't have the albatross of being the father of a recent total failure as governor

Is there more to it here, Semocrat?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I made this comment on forum 11.0--any poll showing 3-4% undecided 18 months before the election has got some problems.

I, too, question the validity of this poll because I think Robin will crush Blunt by far more than 9 points and Steelman, heck, may be a repeat of the Nixon-Hulshof thumpin'.

Do I understand you to believe that Blunt would likely do better--and substantially so--against Carnahan? I'm interested to hear more from an actual Missourian such as yourself as this is contrary to all conventional wisdom posted thus far--by both Democrats and Republicans alike. I'm no expert on Show-Me State politics, but my take on it thus far is Steelman:

a) is considered a hair more moderate than Blunt
b) can better compete for women voters against Carnahan (for obvious reasons), and
c) doesn't have the albatross of being the father of a recent total failure as governor

Is there more to it here, Semocrat?

I heard Steelman was a hair more conservative but is able to atract indies and Conservative Dems b/c of her anti-establishment positions.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I made this comment on forum 11.0--any poll showing 3-4% undecided 18 months before the election has got some problems.

I, too, question the validity of this poll because I think Robin will crush Blunt by far more than 9 points and Steelman, heck, may be a repeat of the Nixon-Hulshof thumpin'.

Do I understand you to believe that Blunt would likely do better--and substantially so--against Carnahan? I'm interested to hear more from an actual Missourian such as yourself as this is contrary to all conventional wisdom posted thus far--by both Democrats and Republicans alike. I'm no expert on Show-Me State politics, but my take on it thus far is Steelman:

a) is considered a hair more moderate than Blunt
b) can better compete for women voters against Carnahan (for obvious reasons), and
c) doesn't have the albatross of being the father of a recent total failure as governor

Is there more to it here, Semocrat?

No no no, I'm sorry if I confused you. What I meant is that this poll seems awfully generous to the Republicans. I meant to say that I'm sure Carnahan will defeat both Blunt and/or Steelman by more than 9 or 12 points.

As for who's more conservative between Blunt and Steelman, I'm not really sure because I obviously don't follow GOP politics. Blunt represents MO-07, the most Republican (R+17) district in Missouri, in the U.S. House. He is pretty much a rank-and-file Republican and arguably the most conservative member in Missouri's delegation. Steelman played an instrumental role in getting the discriminatory marriage amendment passed in 2004 and both are strongly pro-life so leaving the social issues, I'd say Steelman is just a tad more moderate than Blunt.

Your analysis of Steelman is pretty head on. She would be a stronger candidate against Carnahan for the reasons you laid out, but she does have some baggage and has made some controversial remarks over her political career. I'm sure Blunt will get the nomination simply because his last name makes him better known statewide and most of the people who vote in the Republican primary in Missouri are strongly conservative and pretty delusional as they still think his son was a good governor lol and some might hold a grudge against Steelman and blame her for bloodying up Kenny Hulshof in the GOP gubernatorial primary that could have led to his huge loss to Jay Nixon.

Steelman is running, as was said, as the anti-establishment candidate. That might do her more harm than good because many Missouri Republicans are disingenuous to the idea of reform. They want things to stay the same and, like they always do, look backwards instead of forward, in which case Roy Blunt will be their ideal candidate. The primary will indeed be the most interesting part of the race because we all know how the general election will end up... probably won't take very long after the polls close on Election Night for most of the major news networks to make a call.

I hope this has helped you. To sum it up, I do think Blunt would do better against Carnahan than Steelman. His weaknesses of being a Washington insider and being related to Matt Blunt will, I think, do him more good than harm especially in the primary against Steelman but will turn around to hit him where it hurts when he runs against Robin.

[Rowan]

Sorry, but no, it will be MUCH closer than 9-12 points. That is all. You can return to your wet dream now.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Sorry, but no, it will be MUCH closer than 9-12 points. That is all. You can return to your wet dream now.

Yeah, like Santorum closed the gap with Casey.

[Franzl]

Sorry, but no, it will be MUCH closer than 9-12 points. That is all. You can return to your wet dream now.

Yeah, like Santorum closed the gap with Casey.

Rowan's probably right...this is Missouri, after all.

[minionofmidas]

At least Semocrat could offer reasons for his wishful thinking.

[Rowan]

At least Semocrat could offer reasons for his wishful thinking.

It's Missouri.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Sorry, but no, it will be MUCH closer than 9-12 points. That is all. You can return to your wet dream now.

Close like the gubernatorial race?

[Brittain33]

Sorry, but no, it will be MUCH closer than 9-12 points. That is all. You can return to your wet dream now.

Close like the gubernatorial race?

Missouri's partisan bases seem firmer in federal races. At the very least, Dems seem to have a natural ceiling that they don't have in statewide races.