Clinton/Gore vs. Kemp/Allen(1996)

[Historico]

In the memory of Late Secretary Kemp...Id like to propose this scenario....Let's say George H.W. Bush goes with a smarter choice(Literally) pick for his Vice Presidential Running mate and picks NY Congressman Jack Kemp as he is a moderate to moderates and a conservative to conservatives. Bush's term goes essentially the same as in OTL yet, there definatley not as many Qualyesque Gaffes. Clinton still wins the 1992 Election and by the time 1995 rolls around Powell still goes against seeking the Presidency and throws his endorsement behind former Vice President Kemp.

With Kemp largely percieved as the front runner...Dole decides against running. This allows for the former Vice President to wrap up the nomination against Buchanan fairly easily. He chooses Conservative Virgina Governor George Allen to help his appeal in the South. Let's also say Clinton has an affair during the General Election Campaign which drops his poll numbers significantly lower. Does Kemp stand a chance of winning?

[Lincoln Republican]

Clinton's blatant arrogance and infidelity of actually having an affair during the campaign, believing the public would vote for him under any circumstances, finds out that even though he may be irresistible to little tramps who are attracted to power, that the public has its limits of tolerance, and loses a close election.

After this final humiliation, Hillary leaves him after the election, and files for divorce.

New York votes narrowly for their favorite son, Kemp, giving him the electoral victory.       

Kemp/Allen                      270
Clinton/Gore                    268

[Lincoln Republican]

Like I said, New York votes narrowly for favorite son Kemp.

In this scenario, Clinton has an affair during the campaign, as stated by the author.  In New York, this results in more conservative and deeply religious blacks, being offended and voting for Kemp, and results in conservative and religious Jews, voting for Kemp, as they too are offended by Clinton's behavior.  Kemp, being from New York, was a politician with appeal to these key New York voting groups.

As well, many white voters  who normally vote Democrat would also resent Clinton's arrogance in having an affair during the campaign, and would vote for Kemp.

Kemp takes upstate New York by a wide margin, and, with the help of Giuliani, does reasonably well in the greater New York City area.

These particular circumstances combined result in Kemp carrying his home state of New York by a narrow margin.   

[Historico]

So for that Dubya; my mention of an afair during the campaign was an for a potential variable that could or couldn't happen. So for it im doing maps

1. No Clinton General Election Affair(Most likely scenario)

Bill Clinton/Al Gore Jr.: 286 Electoral Votes
Jack Kemp/George Allen: 252 Electoral Votes

2. Clinton has an affair during the General Election...

Jack Kemp/George Allen: 297 Electoral Votes
Bill Clinton/Al Gore Jr.: 241 Electoral Votes