In the Colorado Senate Seat it has more to do with how stong Frazier(R) is. If he is weak we lose, if he turns out to be strong we can win. Colorado should be Lean Dem. Nevada is safe D, Reid has scarred everyone into supporting him, including many R's. New York and Illinois is safe unless Burris somehow is the nominee but thats unlikely. Ohio is is Toss-up/tilt Dem, but I think Portman will pull through in the end. Louisinia is weak GOP. Kentucky should be Toss-up/Tilt Dem, cause right now there are so many unknowns.
You left out Wisconsin under your Governors. Doyle is pretty weak with Approvals in the low 40's, and he is trailing Scott Walker(R) by a few points.
Harry Reid is in no way safe. His approval rating is in the toilet.