Governor races-
GOP
Colorado (Depends who we get for the GOP nom)
Kansas
Oklahoma
Tennesse
New Jersey (for 2009)
DEM
California (most likely)
Virginia (for 2009)
Rhode Island
Hawaii (most likely)
Nevada (if the GOP renominates the current guy)
Toss-Up
Florida
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Senate Races
GOP
Connecticut (Dodd is almost a for sure no go)
Colorado (If Bennet is nominated)
Dem
Kentucky (If Bun wins nomination)
Toss-Up
Missouri
Ohio
Lousiania (Maybe)
Illinios
New York
Nevada
I haven't been paying too much attention to the Gubernatorial races, so I won't refute any of your claims on those *yet.*
As for the Senate races, I'm surprised you don't have New Hampshire under your Toss-Up category as I believe this seat (along with Missouri) is much more likely to flip than Kentucky.
Democrats have a top-tier candidate here in Missouri with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan who was reelected in 2008 with the most votes ever cast for a candidate in the state's history. Keep in mind that she also has the Carnahan name, and her opponent, U.S. Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has the Blunt name. Consider the following formula: Carnahan + Mel = Good, whereas Blunt + Matt = Bad. And while elections are usually always close and competitive in Missouri, I wouldn't be surprised if the Carnahan-Blunt senatorial race is a repeat of the Nixon-Hulshof gubernatorial race in 2008.
As for New Hampshire, the state is becoming bluer by the day. I wouldn't exactly call Paul Hodes a top-tier candidate but the Republicans don't appear to have much of a bench there unless perhaps Attorney General Kelly Ayotte runs in which case it could be close, but I'd still give the edge to Hodes especially if 2010 is a repeat of 2008 and the anti-GOP sentiment is still there. Perhaps Jeb Bradley could run, but I don't think he's that well known outside of the other side of the state, or Charlie Bass, or even John Sununu, but all three of these guys were ousted by Democrats in the past two election cycles.
Kentucky will be interesting, I'll give you that. Poor ole senile Jim Bunning keeps insisting that he's running despite claims from his own party to retire. Must be hard on such a nutter like him. Maybe they have ulterior motives like trying to pressure him so much that he has a mental breakdown and then they can deem him "mentally unstable" and unfit to run for the seat and who knows, maybe they'll send him away in a straight-jacket
hahaha. If Bunning survives, I'll give the seat to Attorney General Jack Conway or Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo (hopefully Conway). If the GOP gets a new recruit, I'd still put the seat as toss-up. Kentucky isn't as red as most states and without Barack Obama on the ticket in 2010, Democrats will do much better statewide. I'm sure the Democrats will go outta their way to get the big-guns (Clintons) into the Bluegrass State to campaign for their candidates.
