2008 Primaries: All states vote on the same day

[tmthforu94]

Let's say, both the DNC and RNC decided to change up the primary process, to where all states vote on one day. With that, states like Iowa and New Hampshire wouldn't have the influence they do, and you wouldn't get the momentum of winning a state.

The election for both party's was February 5th.
Who wins?
Please provide maps, preferably for both parties.

Keep in mind...
Clinton was leading in polls, and Obama wouldn't have had the Iowa momentum
Huckabee also wouldn't have had the Iowa momentum.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Democrats:

Clinton: 30 states
Edwards: 9 states
Obama: 9 states
Richardson: 2 states


Republicans:

Giuliani: 20 states
McCain: 5 states
Romney: 13 states
Huckabee: 11 states
Thompson: 1 state

[Lief 🗽]

and

[Antonio the Sixth]

Assuming that Obama would run in Michigan :

Either Clinton and Obama got less huge scores in the states they win but Obama's Iowa momentum is diffused in the whole country and he comfortably wins.

[Franzl]

I don't know how it would have turned out, but it'd be a much more sensible and reasonable system.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I don't know how it would have turned out, but it'd be a much more sensible and reasonable system.

Agreed.

[tmthforu94]

Here are my own maps...

Democrats:
Obama-Green
Clinton-Red
Richardon-Gray
Edwards-Blue

Republicans:
Blue-Romney
Red-Huckabee
Green-Guiliani
Gray-McCain

[tmthforu94]

I don't know how it would have turned out, but it'd be a much more sensible and reasonable system.

Agreed. The current system gives to much power to states.

[Franzl]

I don't know how it would have turned out, but it'd be a much more sensible and reasonable system.

Agreed. The current system gives to much power to states.

And for the simple fact that it makes many states irrelevant in many cases. The Democratic primary last year was a major exception...but look at the Republican side.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here are my own maps...

Democrats:
Obama-Green
Clinton-Red
Richardon-Gray
Edwards-Blue

Republicans:
Blue-Romney
Red-Huckabee
Green-Guiliani
Gray-McCain

Why does everyone think that Obama would lose badly against Clinton ?

[tmthforu94]

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Look at polls before the Iowa caucus...Clinton was still leading Obama nationwide by a large %. Obama didn't have the momentum of winning states.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama also didn't have the solid block of black support until after he won Iowa.

[Antonio the Sixth]

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Look at polls before the Iowa caucus...Clinton was still leading Obama nationwide by a large %. Obama didn't have the momentum of winning states.

And precisely he overperformed in Iowa. Obama's support rose and fell during the democratic campaign. When he won Iowa, it was one of his best momentums.

[tmthforu94]

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Look at polls before the Iowa caucus...Clinton was still leading Obama nationwide by a large %. Obama didn't have the momentum of winning states.

And precisely he overperformed in Iowa. Obama's support rose and fell during the democratic campaign. When he won Iowa, it was one of his best momentums.

Once again, look at nationwide polls, even after the Iowa caucus. Clinton was still leading Obama. Also, Obama didn't have the solid black support until a few states later, so he would have split it with Clinton.

[hcallega]

Yeah Frenchy. Obama would not win many states without his momentum from Iowa. In fact, if anything 2008 was the biggest reason for a national primary day, because it essentially delivered the Presidency to Obama. Granted many, many other factors played a role, but had Edwards won Iowa than Clinton would be the President today, and if Romney had beaten Huckabee than he would have been the GOP nominee

[tmthforu94]

Yeah Frenchy. Obama would not win many states without his momentum from Iowa. In fact, if anything 2008 was the biggest reason for a national primary day, because it essentially delivered the Presidency to Obama. Granted many, many other factors played a role, but had Edwards won Iowa than Clinton would be the President today, and if Romney had beaten Huckabee than he would have been the GOP nominee

Exactly.
I really don't like how Iowa has so much influence in the nominating process, when it's not that big of a state. Not just because I'm a Romney fan, but I really think it would have come down to Romney or Guiliani for the GOP nomination, where Romney would have won.

[War on Want]

Democrats:

Republicans:

[RI]

Democrats:

Republicans:

[CultureKing]

I am impressed that so many people have McCain winning in Washington State. Personally I would think that Huckabee would win after Guiliani and McCain split the moderate vote. Also people need to remember that the Washington GOP can be a hotbed for hardcore conservatives.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton would have won the Democratic side, or at least gotten a plurality of the pledged delegates.

On the GOP side, McCain probably wouldn't have even been in the race by primary day.  He was completely broke by Summer 2007.  His only hope was to throw everything into NH, and hope that a win there would give him momentum going into the following states.  If all the primaries were on the same day, that wouldn't have been an option, so he could very well have dropped out.  (OTOH, he might have stuck it out just so he could get a handful of delegates, and use them to bargain at a brokered convention.)

I presume that Giuliani would have ended up with a plurality of delegates.  Much of his collapse seems to have coincided with all the negative media attention about how badly he was doing in the early states.  If there *were* no early states, that wouldn't have happened.  But the other open question is how much $ Romney would have given his campaign to run ads nationwide.  Possibly a lot more than Giuliani could raise.

[big bad fab]

Clinton would have won the Democratic side, or at least gotten a plurality of the pledged delegates.

On the GOP side, McCain probably wouldn't have even been in the race by primary day.  He was completely broke by Summer 2007.  His only hope was to throw everything into NH, and hope that a win there would give him momentum going into the following states.  If all the primaries were on the same day, that wouldn't have been an option, so he could very well have dropped out.  (OTOH, he might have stuck it out just so he could get a handful of delegates, and use them to bargain at a brokered convention.)

I presume that Giuliani would have ended up with a plurality of delegates.  Much of his collapse seems to have coincided with all the negative media attention about how badly he was doing in the early states.  If there *were* no early states, that wouldn't have happened.  But the other open question is how much $ Romney would have given his campaign to run ads nationwide.  Possibly a lot more than Giuliani could raise.

Be careful, Mac was back just after Christmas holidays, probably because of international news (Benazir Bhutto's assassination, e.g.).
I agree, he wouldn't have won many states (because of being 2nd or 3rd many times), but he would have run.

[Mr. Morden]

Be careful, Mac was back just after Christmas holidays, probably because of international news (Benazir Bhutto's assassination, e.g.).

I honestly think a good deal of McCain's national surge was due to the positive media coverage he was getting from his seemingly miraculous campaign turnaround in NH.  If doing a hundred town hall meetings in NH hadn't been a viable strategy, he wouldn't have been able to pull that off.

The other part of the equation re: McCain's rise was Giuliani's fall, and Giuliani voters shifting to McCain.  It's hard to assess how much of that would have still happened if we had a single national primary day.  I'm not sure how much of Giuliani's collapse would have happened with a national primary day.  Could he have coasted through to election day without too many voters ever really figuring out how out of step he was with them on social issues?  I think maybe he actually could have.

In a nationwide primary, the electoral battlefield is just so enormous.  No state would get nearly as much attention as Iowa and NH do IRL, and so the average voter wouldn't be nearly as well informed about the candidates as the voters are in the early primary states IRL.  This would have enormous implications for how the campaigns are run.  Of course, the implications are probably too complex for any of us to figure out....

[RI]

I am impressed that so many people have McCain winning in Washington State. Personally I would think that Huckabee would win after Guiliani and McCain split the moderate vote. Also people need to remember that the Washington GOP can be a hotbed for hardcore conservatives.

Well, you also have to take into account how well full Romney and Thompson campaigns would do with that same base. I think McCain would have pulled out a very narrow victory.

[War on Want]

I am impressed that so many people have McCain winning in Washington State. Personally I would think that Huckabee would win after Guiliani and McCain split the moderate vote. Also people need to remember that the Washington GOP can be a hotbed for hardcore conservatives.

Giuliani doesn't seem like the type of moderate that would do very well in Washington and the conservatives would be very, very split between Romney and Huckabee. Eastern Washington has pretty similar politics to where I live and I remember that Romney and Huckabee were about equally popular.

[bhouston79]

A single national primary day is a horrible idea.  Upstart candidates like Obama or Huckabee would never have a shot under such a system because while it is possible for a non-establishment candidate to get his or her message out in one small single state and then use that momentum to springboard onto the national scene; it would be virtually impossible for such an upstart candidate to defeat an establishment candidate where all of the primaries were held on a single day due to the fact that the establishment candidate would have a virtually insurmountable organizational advantage nationwide.

Here is what I predict the maps would have looked like with such a flawed system in place this year assuming that the caucus states were in fact still caucus states under such a system:

Democratic Primary

Clinton - red
Obama - blue
Edwards - baby blue
Biden - Green
Richardson - Grey

And sadly this may be being kind to Obama.  Remember that prior to Iowa, Hillary had huge leads in the national polls.  It wasn't until after Obama won the Iowa caucuses that he surged in the national polls.  Additionally, with Iowa not being nearly as important in a national primary, I think that Obama is probably unable to spend the time necessary to carry that state.  Remember he only won the caucuses by about 4 percentage points, and that was after camping out in the state for several months.  In a national primary day system, it wouldn't have made much sense for him to have spent so much time in Iowa.

Republican primary

Romney - Red
Giulliani - Blue
Huckabee - Green
McCain - Grey

I'll admit that this Republican prediction is a shot in the dark.