Day 27: Nebraska
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  Day 27: Nebraska
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Alcon
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« on: September 20, 2005, 12:56:36 AM »



Aside from Thurston County, which is majority Native American, this is a heavily white, Republican state.

Out of curiosity, can anyone explain why Dakota County, Nebraska was so close?  It does contain South Sioux City, but a suburb of an already slightly Republican city is generally more Republican than the entirety of Dakota County.

Beyond that...what's to say?  Only three other counties gave Bush under 60%:  Saline (not sure why), Lancaster (Lincoln), and Douglas (Omaha).

The only other significantly populated county is Sarpy, which contains Omaha's whitebread suburbs and voted over 2-to-1 Bush.

Everything else seems to be uniformly rural and Republican.
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MaC
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« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2005, 02:51:27 AM »

uhh, it's a Republican state,... like you said "what's there to say?"
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Alcon
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« Reply #2 on: September 20, 2005, 02:53:00 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2005, 02:55:03 AM by Arr! Alcon »

uhh, it's a Republican state,... like you said "what's there to say?"

Well...there's always trending...and...

Nebraska is boring as hell.

Congressionally, I think Burt County, Nebraska voted for the Democrat challenger with 63%.  I think this is because his hometown of Decatur is in Burt County.

What a boring, boring state.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: September 20, 2005, 05:08:10 AM »

Some idiot Democrats thought we could pick up an elector there. See, I'm non-partisan in my calling out the bullsh**t.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: September 20, 2005, 09:49:46 AM »

Some idiot Democrats thought we could pick up an elector there. See, I'm non-partisan in my calling out the bullsh**t.

the poster 'rightwingnut' also predicted that.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #5 on: September 20, 2005, 10:05:09 AM »

Nebraska isn't boring, it's just sensible.  They have the best arrangement for their state legislature of all fifty in my opinion.
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BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: September 20, 2005, 10:38:31 AM »

Out of curiosity, can anyone explain why Dakota County, Nebraska was so close?  It does contain South Sioux City, but a suburb of an already slightly Republican city is generally more Republican than the entirety of Dakota County.

Sioux City is not that Republican, (only barely voted Bush), and it's "suburbs" aren't really suburbs in a traditional sense, but rather simply parts that should be part of the city but fall across state lines (much like North Mankato here, which is really just the part of Mankato that was settled on the other side of the river.) South Sioux City is no more affluent or any less working class than Sioux City.

Beyond that...what's to say?  Only three other counties gave Bush under 60%:  Saline (not sure why)

Was settled by Hungarian immigrants and always had a historical Democratic tradition much unlike the neighboring area.

Fun fact, my brother went to college in Nebraska for one semester. While driving down, they went through Cherry county (that huge county in the north right next to the pandhandle.) While passing through Valentine (county seat and only town in the county of any significant size whatsoever) there actually was a sign posted to say to get gas now, as there was no more gas stations for another 90 miles. Not only was this correct, but for a good part of that 90 mile drive, there was no radio stations, and they were unable to use a cell phone (no nearby towers)

Urgh. Talk about hell.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2005, 03:42:16 PM »

It always amazes me just how uniformly ultra-Republican rural Western Nebraska is. You'd think with dozens of counties of like three hundred people each, there'd be some variation, but they pretty much all vote the same. It's like an inner city hood stretched over a vast area in its voting pattern really.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2005, 12:25:14 PM »

I got a question...how do the CDs vote? What kinds of deviation is there between them?
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BRTD
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2005, 12:38:03 PM »

I got a question...how do the CDs vote? What kinds of deviation is there between them?

The third district is more solidly GOP than Utah. The second is least Republican but still voted over 60% for Bush. Omaha suburbs keep it in the GOP column for presidential elections but it could possibly elect a Democrat on the Congressional level (and did fairly recently). The first is fairly safe as well but since it does contain all the Dem pockets in the state not in Omaha, there's an outside chance a Democrat could pick it up against a horrible opponent. Up until last year it also was represented by one of my favorite House Republicans, Doug Bereuter. Guy had one hell of an independent streak, and was very critical of Bush and Iraq. Just before he left the House in fact he actually flat out said Iraq was a mistake and the US should've never went int.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2005, 02:55:34 PM »

So the district people talk about being winnable is the 2nd then, right?
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BRTD
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2005, 10:14:34 PM »

Yes. Although going by the last presidential election results it's about as winnable as Indiana.
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MissCatholic
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2005, 09:54:06 AM »

38/93 the democrats failed to poll 20% of the vote. thats unbelieable. this state is impossible to win.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2005, 02:26:14 AM »

38/93 the democrats failed to poll 20% of the vote. thats unbelieable. this state is impossible to win.
It always amazes me just how uniformly ultra-Republican rural Western Nebraska is. You'd think with dozens of counties of like three hundred people each, there'd be some variation, but they pretty much all vote the same. It's like an inner city hood stretched over a vast area in its voting pattern really.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2005, 07:35:31 AM »

What's really odd about the uniform voting patterns in rural Western Nebraska is that that area isn't uniform in almost any other way...
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memphis
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2005, 02:47:48 PM »

What's really odd about the uniform voting patterns in rural Western Nebraska is that that area isn't uniform in almost any other way...
For those of us who haven't been to Western Nebraska, please explain any variations that exist there.
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #16 on: April 25, 2009, 08:49:52 PM »

Yes. Although going by the last presidential election results it's about as winnable as Indiana.

We won both
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: April 26, 2009, 06:54:57 AM »

Yes. Although going by the last presidential election results it's about as winnable as Indiana.

Indiana and greater Omaha voted almost exactly alike -- marginally for Obama and decidedly more Republican than the nation at large. Both will vote marginally for Obama, and decidedly more Republican than the nation as a whole, should Obama win 380 or so electoral votes (because Obama will more likely win Arizona than either Indiana or NE-02 in 2012 -- that's how I equalize performance).

But back to Nebraska. In order of the likelihood of Obama winning any of the five electoral votes, from most to least likely are:

NE-02 (Obama wins about 53% of the popular vote and 380 or so electoral votes: it travels with Indiana or Missouri)

NE-01 (Obama wins about 55% of the popular vote and about 420 electoral votes, probably traveling with the Dakotas)

NE (Obama wins these two at-large electoral votes with about 58% of the popular vote, probably "after" Texas and "before" Kansas with about 480 electoral votes)

NE-03 (Obama probably needs 63% of the popular vote to win what may be the toughest electoral vote in America. Travels with Wyoming.     

 



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tmthforu94
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« Reply #18 on: April 26, 2009, 03:32:27 PM »

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I would say, Obama would have to win the national popular vote by almost 70% to win NE-03, which is just about impossible. And even then, it would be extremely close. If a Republican only won 1 district in America, my bet would be that this is the one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: April 26, 2009, 03:50:12 PM »

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I would say, Obama would have to win the national popular vote by almost 70% to win NE-03, which is just about impossible. And even then, it would be extremely close. If a Republican only won 1 district in America, my bet would be that this is the one.

I'd be very concerned if any Presidential candidate won 70% or more of the popular vote -- that's about what Hugo Chavez wins.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #20 on: April 28, 2009, 01:24:44 AM »

Yes. Although going by the last presidential election results it's about as winnable as Indiana.

I'm so glad someone brought these ancient threads back to the surface because I'm having a lot of fun reading them Smiley
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