Quayle/Baker vs. Cuomo/Nunn vs. Perot/Weicker(1992)
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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderator: Dereich)
  Quayle/Baker vs. Cuomo/Nunn vs. Perot/Weicker(1992)
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Author Topic: Quayle/Baker vs. Cuomo/Nunn vs. Perot/Weicker(1992)  (Read 1493 times)
Historico
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« on: April 19, 2009, 11:12:45 PM »

Ok...Let's say that President George H.W. Bush dies of an massive heart attack while on one of his jogs in May of 1991, and Quayle is sworn in as the 42nd President of the United States. Queyle handles the Presidency pretty simmilar to how Bush did IOTL's lead up to the 1992 General Election and it's given a really strong Honeymoon Period. However, he does manage to hold the conservative base at bay, and there is no Buchanan challenge. He chooses the popular Secretary of State, and Bush close friend James Baker as his Vice President. And they recieve nomination pretty fairly.

However, Quayle ascension to the Presidency does have it's ripple effects as it is enough to convince New York Governor Mario Cuomo to run for the nomination. After a tough nomination battle with Bill Clinton, Cuomo clinches enough delegates to recieve the nomination. In order to appeal to Southern Conservatives and shore up his lack of foriegn policy credentials Cuomo chooses Senator and Chairman of the Armed Services Commitee Sam Nunn of Georgia as his running mate.

Perot, gets into the race around the same time as IOTL, however is better able to position himself as the "Centrist" candidate between Cuomo and Quayle. He does not drop out of the race, and chooses Independent Conneticut Governor Lowell Weicker as his running mate.

So how does the electoral map come out?
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Historico
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« Reply #1 on: April 20, 2009, 12:09:19 PM »

Any thoughts?
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #2 on: April 21, 2009, 01:18:11 AM »

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Historico
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« Reply #3 on: April 21, 2009, 02:57:54 PM »

Nice Map IH...Here's a couple scenario's I think could play out.

1. The most plausible scenario...Quayle is able to pump enthusiasm into Social Conservatives in the General Election campaign against Cuomo. The popularity of Ross Perot, who campaigns more enthusiastically in the South however forces a handfull of states into Cuomo's hands. Quayle is still Quayle, Ross doesn't come in as erratic and impulsive, Cuomo wins by a fairly comfortable margin but not as big as Clinton's IOTL.



Mario Cuomo/Sam Nunn: 309 Electoral Votes
Dan Quayle/James Baker: 198 Electoral Votes
Ross Perot/Lowell Weicker: 31 Electoral Votes

2. The Best Case Scenario for Coumo...Ross Perot drops out and reenter's the race hurting his chance with disafected Moderates. Quayle has a gaffe ridden campaign and bombs the debates. Cuomo is able to capitlize on a message of broad farm relief to deal the recession for the mid west and he reaches out to black and Jewish voters in the south.



Mario Cuomo/Sam Nunn: 428 Electoral Votes
Dan Quayle/James Baker: 110 Electoral Votes
Ross Perot/Lowell Weicker: 0 Electoral Votes

3. Best Case Scenario for Quayle....Dan runs a flawless campaign, absolutley Gafeless and somehow manages to win the three debates. He also has Reagan and his adminstration officals campaign hard for him, as well as successfully ably to potray Cuomo as another Michael Dukakais. He is still barely able to pull off a victory.



Dan Quayle/James Baker: 270 Electoral Votes
Mario Cuomo/Sam Nunn: 268 Electoral Votes
Ross Perot/Lowell Weicker: 0 Electoral Votes

4. The Best Case Scenario for Perot...The American people stick with Ross in the lead for most of the campaign, rejecting Quayle for being Quayle and Cuomo as to liberal. Lowell Weicker, cuts through Coumo's base in the Northeast, after winning the Vice Presidential debate. Ross becomes the 1st Independent to win the Presidency...



Ross Perot/Lowell Weicker: 276 Electoral Votes
Mario Cuomo/Sam Nunn: 166 Electoral Votes
Dan Quayle/James Baker: 96 Electoral Votes
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #4 on: April 21, 2009, 07:25:01 PM »

It is fun and interesting to fantasize about independents actually winning electoral votes.  In reality, it is very, very unlikely to happen, virtually no chance.

The last independent or third party candidate to win any electoral votes was George Wallace in 1968.  Wallace was an established conservative entity on the political scene in 1968 and had a solid base of support in the deep south, and was able to win 46 electoral votes and five states.

Perot, even with a better campaign would not have won any electoral votes.  In 1992, it simply was not a realistic expectation. 

Cuomo wins this election, but not without a fight.  Much of the country would simply be suspicious of a northeastern liberal like Cuomo, however, Quayle would not be a strong enough nominee to win the Presidency, and there are too many doubts about Quayle's capacity for the job.  Cuomo in 1992 would have lost to a more credible Republican nominee like GHW Bush.

Nunn, although a good VP pick does not help deliver any southern states, including his home state of Georgia, to the northeast liberal Cuomo.

All three VP nominees are good picks, however, when it comes right down to it, it would be the Presidential nominees that people would be casting their votes for or against.   

Cuomo/Nunn                    276
Quayle/Baker                   262
Perot/Weicker                      0

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benconstine
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2009, 01:30:23 PM »

Cuomo wins 342-171-25:
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