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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Coolface's deceased great-granduncle, Apocrypha)
  If the tickets flipped: Biden/Obama Vs. Palin/McCain
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Author Topic: If the tickets flipped: Biden/Obama Vs. Palin/McCain  (Read 3296 times)
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change08
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« on: April 18, 2009, 09:12:59 am »

How would '08 have looked with the tickets flipped? The VP as the Presidential nominee and vice-versa.

Discuss with maps.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: April 18, 2009, 09:56:21 am »





Easy win for Biden. McCain's presence as VP can't save Arizona.
I even think that Louisiana and Kentucky could become competitive.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: April 18, 2009, 10:28:54 am »
« Edited: April 18, 2009, 10:33:31 am by Romney/Bachmann`12 »

Both Arkansas and Louisiana voted +19% for the Republican ticket in RL. I doubt Biden would have won Arkansas, or even keep  Louisiana under 5 points.
There wouldn't have been as big of a gap amoung whites, although some will still vote against Biden with a black on the ticket.
I love Palin to death, but she didn't have enough experience, (kinda like the person who won in RL) and I think experienced candidates should be in the White House. McCain would hold Arizona.
Conservatives would come out well for Palin, so it wouldn't be bad. Biden still wins.
Tossup States: Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina
Most people go into election day expecting Biden to win big. Palin actually suprises people with the results, as many thought North Carolina and Arizona would vote Democrat.

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Antonio V
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« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2009, 03:48:32 pm »



American far-rightists are stupid, but not at this point.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2009, 04:07:47 pm »



American far-rightists are stupid, but not at this point.

Now THAT, is funny
lol
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War on Want
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« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2009, 04:13:19 pm »

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RIP Robert H Bork
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« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2009, 05:49:56 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2009, 09:44:58 pm by I approve this message »

Easy win for Biden.

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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #7 on: April 18, 2009, 08:52:50 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2009, 09:07:03 pm by ICE HOCKEY »



Obama: 458
Palin: 80

Explanations:

LA:  Biden as a White Catholic who would win the black vote unanimously vs. a tool like Palin.  I would go out on a limb and say he'd win the Cajun vote.

AR, TN, KY, WV:  Still either very Democratic (AR/WV) and fairly Dem (TN) and Biden definitely appeals to white blue collars plus these states are not as religious as some may think.

PA: D>60% and DE: D>70%:  Biden on top of the ticket would electrify the votes from Scranton to almost OC, MD plus I could see him winning PA 3, 4, and 12 out in Western PA due to the ... Yeah, what Jack Murtha said.

Temptations:

SC (Upstate and Bob Jones pulled me back), MS (Obama not on top), and WY
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #8 on: April 18, 2009, 08:56:23 pm »


LOL

First of all, it's Biden vs. Palin. Secondly, you think Obama would beat Palin in KS, NE, AR, TN, LA, KY and WV? That makes no sense at all! She'd do better than McCain in those states!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: April 18, 2009, 09:09:58 pm »

Do you guys relize how ridiculous it is to think that Kansas would vote for Biden? Palin is the perfect fit for most Kansas residents. Republicans have a 300,000+ voter registration lead in Kansas. A Democrat would have to get over 80% of Independant support to win the state... :/ 
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #10 on: April 18, 2009, 09:12:28 pm »


LOL

First of all, it's Biden vs. Palin. Secondly, you think Obama would beat Palin in KS, NE, AR, TN, LA, KY and WV? That makes no sense at all! She'd do better than McCain in those states!

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #11 on: April 18, 2009, 09:14:19 pm »

Do you guys relize how ridiculous it is to think that Kansas would vote for Biden? Palin is the perfect fit for most Kansas residents. Republicans have a 300,000+ voter registration lead in Kansas. A Democrat would have to get over 80% of Independant support to win the state... :/ 

I think Biden would win the Kansas "Mods" (Republicans) against Palin.  Giuliani or Romney?  i'd agree with you.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2009, 09:18:34 pm »

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

The Dakotas aren't that religious either yet everyone here was harping on how Palin helped keep ND in the GOP column.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #13 on: April 18, 2009, 09:20:35 pm »
« Edited: April 18, 2009, 09:23:47 pm by Romney/Bachmann`12 »


LOL

First of all, it's Biden vs. Palin. Secondly, you think Obama would beat Palin in KS, NE, AR, TN, LA, KY and WV? That makes no sense at all! She'd do better than McCain in those states!

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

45% of registered voters in Kansas are Republican. Only 27% are Democrat. The only way a Democrat could win there is if they were a conservative Democrat. A moderate would have a shot in a big Democrat year. But Biden is pretty liberal. At least Obama could milk the fact that his Mom was from Kansas.

Also, well over 50% of Kansas is Christian. So you can't make that point either.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2009, 03:20:47 pm »

The Kansas Republican party is in constant war, among its Moderate and Conservative wings.
Perhaps Biden could appeal to the moderates, like Sebelius did, and they would vote for him instead of a religious, incompetent nutjob like Palin.

That said, I don't think that Biden would have won Kansas or Nebraska even with a joke like Palin against him. Obama was a better fit for those Prairie/Western voters and even though that resulted in huge swings, McCain still won by very comfortable margins.   
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CultureKing
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« Reply #15 on: April 19, 2009, 04:17:17 pm »

Biden landslide. The extent of which would depend on how much foot-in-mouth disease each candidate has during the campaign. Personally I think Palin would hurt herself even more from the extra media exposure: I would predict something on the order of a 54-43 Biden win. By the way this would have made SNL even better.
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True Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: April 19, 2009, 04:33:20 pm »

Assuming that Palin has a slightly better performance as a Presidential candidate (otherwise, how would she have gotten the nomination?):



391-147

I see Palin's vote declining a lot more in states that Obama won than in states that McCain won, though it would decline enough overall to flip some McCain states.  The one area, Applachia, where Biden would have performed better than McCain is also prime Palin country, IMO, which is why Biden doesn't pick up too many electoral votes.
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War on Want
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« Reply #17 on: April 19, 2009, 05:22:16 pm »

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

The Dakotas aren't that religious either yet everyone here was harping on how Palin helped keep ND in the GOP column.
Who said that? That is just stupid.
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You kip if you want to...
change08
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« Reply #18 on: April 19, 2009, 05:59:43 pm »

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

The Dakotas aren't that religious either yet everyone here was harping on how Palin helped keep ND in the GOP column.
Who said that? That is just stupid.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-dakota.html

Notice the big red uptick after the Palin pick at the end of August, and a slight decline when everyone actually seen Palin for what she was... an idiot.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #19 on: April 19, 2009, 06:52:35 pm »

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

The Dakotas aren't that religious either yet everyone here was harping on how Palin helped keep ND in the GOP column.
Who said that? That is just stupid.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-dakota.html

Notice the big red uptick after the Palin pick at the end of August, and a slight decline when everyone actually seen Palin for what she was... an idiot.
Ot maybe, it's because that's when the stock market crash, and McCain lost support nationwide...
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War on Want
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« Reply #20 on: April 19, 2009, 07:05:47 pm »

The Southern ones you mentioned were definitely helped by racial issues.  Now a Mike Huckabee would do better than McCain and would definitely hold those states except WV vs. Biden.  NE and KS are not really that religious and I'd think would be turned off by Palin.

The Dakotas aren't that religious either yet everyone here was harping on how Palin helped keep ND in the GOP column.
Who said that? That is just stupid.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/north-dakota.html

Notice the big red uptick after the Palin pick at the end of August, and a slight decline when everyone actually seen Palin for what she was... an idiot.
That was the height of the McCain campaign too. I don't think it had much to do with Palin.
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anvi
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« Reply #21 on: April 19, 2009, 11:32:33 pm »

The two polls taken in Oct. in North Dakota with 4% error margins were statistically tied, but both listed 11% of voters as undecided, and it seems like most broke for McCain at the last minute.  I did hear from some relatives there that a number of North Dakotans did like her, but I doubt McCain won the state because of Palin.  By October, North Dakotans knew Palin and it was still close.  Obama would have had a better chance had he campained in the center and west side of the state, but he didn't.  North Dakota is basically a Republican state; it's voted for Democrats only five times since it became a state, and will only deliever its electoral votes to a Democrat in a blowout.
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Carapace Clavicle Moundshroud
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« Reply #22 on: May 16, 2009, 03:30:45 pm »


LOL

First of all, it's Biden vs. Palin. Secondly, you think Obama would beat Palin in KS, NE, AR, TN, LA, KY and WV? That makes no sense at all! She'd do better than McCain in those states!

Against Obama but not against Biden.
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