What if France turned to a far-left regime...?
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  What if France turned to a far-left regime...?
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Author Topic: What if France turned to a far-left regime...?  (Read 2994 times)
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 14, 2009, 01:25:19 PM »

Let's imagine that France effectively turns to a far-left regime led by Besancenot.

That economy continues to go down and down without clear perspectives of hope and that the French people, which never really liked that capitalistic system, decides to turn itself to Besancenot proposals.

It could happen like this summary:

Besancenot succeeds in directed the anger of the people in favor of his ideas, he succeeds to make believe French people that what he says could be seriously tried, strong protest movements begin to step by step block the country maybe on a long term, and Sarkozy, given the situation, decides to make a referendum on his policy (like De Gaulle in 1968).

French people answers "No" to Sarkozy's policy. Sarkozy decides to resign. New presidential elections are held.

Results give Bayrou vs. Besancenot at 2nd turn, and Besancenot wins.

Then which consequences for France? That could be:

On economy:

- Full nationalizations of all banks.
- Full nationalizations of all big industries.
- Full nationalizations of all big companies.

A very state-directed economy.

On other home policies:

- Maybe the death of the 5th republic. A new constitution.
- I hope they would keep all citizens' freedoms, given they are claiming for democracy everywhere, we can hope so.
- Maybe an open door to immigration.

On foreign policies:

- France fully withdraw from NATO.
- France withdraw from most of big EU policies, if not from EU.
- France withdraw from euro, and creates a new international currency maybe with countries like Venezuela for example.
- France becomes an "anti-imperialistic" (understand anti US foreign policies) state and maybe the best friend of Chavez, and if Besancenot keeps nukes, it could even give Chavez a nuke button for friend.
- France would be a clear supporter of Palestine.
- France could, why not, support Tibet (wow!) (remember, we speak about Besancenot)

Consequences on other countries:

The fact that a country like France turns to this could make grow protests in other countries in which there are already big protests against current economy like Greece for most recent ones. It could destabilize such small regimes, and it could also encourage far-left supporters to make some more mess in other western countries.

Sounds crazy? Well, I think that according to how will turn the economical situation on a longer term, France could enter in a far-left fever, just like Europe knew other fevers in the 30's. I don't think such a regime would last a long time, at least with the policies they claim for.

I think it could have chances too, because it would play on the old "anti-imperialistic feeling" that French people has toward US and its economy.

Well, at least we can allow ourselves to wonder on the possible consequences of such a thing.

Then, I wonder what consequences this would have on global economy. Do you think it could be an hard shot for this one that the 5th or 6th economical power worldwide decides to turn to far-left economical policies?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2009, 03:14:16 PM »

As I said before, it's quasi-impossible for Besancenot to get into any presidential runoff. Even if he did do so and won, without the help of aliens from Mars, he'd still need to get a majority in the National Assembly and Senate, which is impossible.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2009, 06:05:33 PM »

As I said before, it's quasi-impossible for Besancenot to get into any presidential runoff. Even if he did do so and won, without the help of aliens from Mars, he'd still need to get a majority in the National Assembly and Senate, which is impossible.

Here we would speak about a very special time. If it happens, it would mean that France is really in fever, special conditions, if French are able to put him to presidency, they will give him a majority. Plus, if he won the executive power by presidential elections, we can expect he changes the rules of executive power, and that anyway he would have warned before doing this.

One more time, we speak here about something that would happen in very special psychological conditions, if a fever takes the population because of the current economical situation, and it will depend of this economical situation.

The slightest we can say now it is that violent actions tend to develop themselves these last days, I don't speak about Strasbourg, and that according to polls, a significant part of French (close to majority) approve this when it comes to sequestration of bosses for example.

Next step to see, 1st of May.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2009, 06:10:17 PM »

Ah, so it is an alien scenario after all.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2009, 06:12:45 PM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2009, 06:15:29 PM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.

I'd return to France immediately and lead a Breton resistance movement.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2009, 06:24:23 PM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.

I'd return to France immediately and lead a Breton resistance movement.

Regional resistances, I didn't think to this, thanks. Hmm, on that side, the Alsatians would be the toughest ones I guess.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2009, 06:50:09 PM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.

I'd return to France immediately and lead a Breton resistance movement.

Regional resistances, I didn't think to this, thanks. Hmm, on that side, the Alsatians would be the toughest ones I guess.

And Alpes-Maritimes! And Var! And Neuilly-sur-Seine!

You forgot all the wealthy bourgeois. They wouldn't take a Trot in power too kindly, methinks. Anyways, REVOLUTION. Counter-revolution is better.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2009, 06:54:39 PM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.

I'd return to France immediately and lead a Breton resistance movement.

Regional resistances, I didn't think to this, thanks. Hmm, on that side, the Alsatians would be the toughest ones I guess.

And Alpes-Maritimes! And Var! And Neuilly-sur-Seine!

You forgot all the wealthy bourgeois. They wouldn't take a Trot in power too kindly, methinks. Anyways, REVOLUTION. Counter-revolution is better.

Actually, planes and trains to Switzerland would be crowded concerning bourgeois if something like this happens, actually.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2009, 08:15:17 PM »

Do I really need anymore ammo, guys? Seriously. You better hope this doesn't happen.  Wink
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2009, 09:21:23 PM »

Americans already think that France is far-left.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2009, 07:48:36 AM »

You better hope this doesn't happen.  Wink

I don't encourage this, but, as long as they would keep citizens' freedoms, I must confess I would be very curious to see it happen.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2009, 10:40:05 AM »


Hehehe. Take it the way you want! Outside of the possibility of this scenario, was mostly to see the consequences of such a thing.

I'd return to France immediately and lead a Breton resistance movement.

     I would join you in the resistance movement.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2009, 02:50:20 PM »

Plenty of leftists gain power with radical rhetoric and then actually govern as a tolerable moderate. So it may not be that bad.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: April 23, 2009, 05:56:00 AM »

Plenty of leftists gain power with radical rhetoric and then actually govern as a tolerable moderate. So it may not be that bad.

You may not know Olivier Besancenot, we can reproach a lot of things to him but not its sincerity. I don't say we'd be a new USSR, or a new Maoist China, but the guy is really on the far left, and is really "anti-imperialist".
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2009, 04:31:12 PM »

Tonight, at "A vous de juger" (the biggest political TV show in France, a monthly prime time of 2 hours), Jean-Claude Mailly (leader of one of the biggest union, FO) stated that if the gov didn't listen the protests on the 1st of May, his union at least would propose to other unions a general nationwide strike day of 24h. Before, that was only public services that were on strike in France, it would be the first time since 1968 events that such a thing would happen

To be seen...

Anyway, the gov made a very bad mistake of diary by holding negotiations with workers of Continental (the hottest social conflict nowadays, and by far the most violent one), just 2 days before the 1st of May, if that fails the workers will make more noise and could make grow the anger feeling, plus the unemployment figures for March will fall soon, one more bad thing for the context...
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Hashemite
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« Reply #16 on: April 23, 2009, 04:34:33 PM »

The government won't fall. There won't be a omgrevolution!!!11omg. There won't be a Bolshevik takeover. People need to stop the panic or delusions, whatever it may be.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: April 23, 2009, 04:38:10 PM »

One more time, all depends of economy I think.

People need to stop the panic or delusions, whatever it may be.

Well, the anger might be not definite, but it is really here, and it is growing for months now, and the media doesn't help to stop it. It's a day by day bad news and growing anger track we have here, with people expressing genuine emotions.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #18 on: April 23, 2009, 04:51:20 PM »

One more time, all depends of economy I think.

Yes, it ain't nice. But this is not Germany 1930, for the love of God! This isn't the Great Depression as the media loves to make it seem.

People need to stop the panic or delusions, whatever it may be.

Well, the anger might be not definite, but it is really here, and it is growing for months now, and the media doesn't help to stop it. It's a day by day bad news and growing anger track we have here, with people expressing genuine emotions.
[/quote]

France and the world has had bad economic downturns before, and people got angry and the news was dreary. I fail to see why this would be any different.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: April 23, 2009, 05:16:51 PM »
« Edited: April 23, 2009, 05:23:59 PM by Benedict »

One more time, all depends of economy I think.

Yes, it ain't nice. But this is not Germany 1930, for the love of God! This isn't the Great Depression as the media loves to make it seem.

That has always been my point, that's why I always conditioned that possibility to a big economical downturn. We're not into it yet, we're still floating in the airs hoping that the toxic assets will stop to plumb us as fast as possible, but if we stay a too long time in that precarious airs or worse if we suddenly crash down, then, in other countries I don't know but in France I see the far-left scenario as very probable.

Add to this we're today in a very media world, where people use to be emotionally very stressed, when you watch the anger of guys of Continental or Caterpillar on TV, when you see them breaking the sub-prefecture (a building representing the state in France) in presence of TV cameras, when you see the projectiles launched on the boss of the factory, when you see  representations of bosses hung or beaten by the workers like would do naughty kids, when you use to regularly see these violent images on TV, plus the emotion of their anger, on a population more stressed and more sensitive to emotions than before, the impact is to be taken in count.

But, one more time, to sum up, I think that for we know a fever, I think that economical situation has or to continue to stay bad, or to crash. The other point to know is, is Besancenot able to canalize that anger and does he or not fear to take power. Because, as far as I can see, that guy is the only one who can give a political echo to the claim of these growing protests. And if the situation lasts, people may want to find some concrete echo to their protest, especially if they radicalize their movements. Unions may be building a plane they won't be able to control, Besancenot could be the pilot of that plane.

I could add to this a speech on our revolutionary culture, and our anti-US/anti-capitalistic old feeling, which is still present (it's interesting to see the references to Gaulois we can see here or there in conflicts). I could also add to this the fact that the president is currently Sarkozy.

Well, frankly, if the economical situation is not better in one year, we could begin to worry about the political situation I think.

But, in the same time I see that the anger is already really present and is day by day growing, and we can add to this anger of workers the big protests in public services too, like universities, hospitals, schools, and in mail services too (soon privatized) and all gather themselves against Sarkozy's policies around the fact that money shouldn't take so much place in the management of public services.

All of this make that a fever could happen if the situation last a long time, but in the same time, today, a lot of ingredients are already here.

So, well, to be seen...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2009, 12:27:23 PM »

For a time, I agree with Haschemite. A ( very ) little possibility be be qualified for the 2nd round => a Sarkozy landslide.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2009, 03:33:53 PM »

For a time, I agree with Haschemite. A ( very ) little possibility be be qualified for the 2nd round => a Sarkozy landslide.

Hashemite, mar plij.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2009, 04:00:44 PM »


That's some Breton?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #23 on: May 05, 2009, 04:04:52 PM »


Ya.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: May 05, 2009, 04:10:54 PM »


I meant: Hashemite is Breton? Not to be indiscreet, but on Google they just refer to the Jordan royal family.
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