Middle Tennessee mystery
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wdewey
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« on: April 13, 2009, 10:08:57 PM »

Why do a handful of rural counties in Middle Tennessee vote Democratic so consistently? Voting for Carter and Clinton and Gore is to be expected, but McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry? Obama predictably lost most of those holdouts (his vote plummeted in middle TN compared to Kerry), but he still won Houston and Jackson Counties.

Most rural Democratic counties in the South are heavily African-American, but these counties are almost entirely white. Houston County voted for Wallace in 68 and McGovern in 72--about the strangest pivot possible. Are these places really bastions of liberalism, or just old-fashioned yellow-dog Democrats who somehow didn't get the message to switch parties like the rest of the South?
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Nhoj
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« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2009, 10:15:53 PM »

economic lefties probably old mining areas.
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wdewey
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« Reply #2 on: April 13, 2009, 10:52:01 PM »

economic lefties probably old mining areas.
Coal country is in East Tennessee, which votes overwhelmingly Republican. (The unions never got a foothold like they did in WV or KY). I suppose it could be some other kind of mining but there's mining all over the state.
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Nhoj
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2009, 11:31:43 PM »

ran across an interesting tidbit about jackson county Alpert gore Sr was born there. i still havent found any reasons on why the area is democratic.
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wdewey
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« Reply #4 on: April 13, 2009, 11:43:17 PM »

ran across an interesting tidbit about jackson county Alpert gore Sr was born there. i still havent found any reasons on why the area is democratic.
That might help to explain it. Jackson County voted for Humphrey in 68, so their subsequent voting behavior is a bit more logical (though still very unusual for the region)
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War on Want
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« Reply #5 on: April 13, 2009, 11:53:26 PM »

The TVA is the reason why Democratic traditions have held up better here than in other reasons I think. I could be wrong though.
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BRTD
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2009, 01:27:02 AM »

These really rural and poor counties are very isolated so external trends don't affect them as much. Politics in such areas are very tribal, and the Republicans never had much of a machine, and there's not much point in trying to build one now. Same with Elliott in Kentucky and a few others.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2009, 01:38:13 AM »

Obama's vote plummeted in middle Tennessee for an obvious reason (actually probably for two obvious and similar reasons).  Even though Kerry's drop off was quite substantial to begin with compared to Democrats who weren't Gore (partially social issues, partially Catholic, you know).

These areas are poor, socially conservative.  For the Democratic part, you have to go back to the Civil War, I believe.  They still are that - just not where the national party is right now.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2009, 01:56:53 AM »

Obama's vote plummeted in middle Tennessee for an obvious reason (actually probably for two obvious and similar reasons).  Even though Kerry's drop off was quite substantial to begin with compared to Democrats who weren't Gore (partially social issues, partially Catholic, you know).

These areas are poor, socially conservative.  For the Democratic part, you have to go back to the Civil War, I believe.  They still are that - just not where the national party is right now.
a interesting thing to note is that well obama dropped off heavily there wasn't much of a rise in people voting republican in those counties the voters simply didn't turnout.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2009, 09:19:47 AM »

Obama's vote plummeted in middle Tennessee for an obvious reason (actually probably for two obvious and similar reasons).  Even though Kerry's drop off was quite substantial to begin with compared to Democrats who weren't Gore (partially social issues, partially Catholic, you know).

These areas are poor, socially conservative.  For the Democratic part, you have to go back to the Civil War, I believe.  They still are that - just not where the national party is right now.
a interesting thing to note is that well obama dropped off heavily there wasn't much of a rise in people voting republican in those counties the voters simply didn't turnout.

Actually, Middle TN was kind of odd.  Some counties showed the trend you referred to (which was also noted in parts of Kentucky and West Virginia - or at least Al would note it), others didn't show any change and even others showed voting gains and there's really no rhyme or reason to it, as far as I can tell.

Maybe Al can clarify on this regard.  It might have something to do with the prevalence of early voting in TN - I really have no other clue.
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memphis
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« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2009, 05:22:51 PM »
« Edited: April 14, 2009, 05:51:12 PM by memphis »

The TVA is the reason why Democratic traditions have held up better here.
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

The Dem areas are along the Tennessee River and extend into Northern Alabama as well. These areas retain Democratic Congressmen(John Tanner, Lincoln Davis, Bart Gordon, Parker Griffith).
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2009, 01:25:22 PM »

It is the TVA area (and it is not a mining area), but whether the TVA is the reason... relative isolation and lack of a Republican effort sounds more realistic. And TN regional tribalism that, after all, held East Tennessee Republican for 140 years.
Might be worth taking a look at the kind of denominations people belong to, too.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2009, 03:37:24 PM »

As far as the northern part of the Mid-Tennessee goes (which is where the Dem vote is a bit stronger), The Appalachian Regional Commission puts this area with "Central Appalachia", along with the other regions we typically think of as more "Appalachian" than "Southern".


Economically, too, this area more in common with E KY/ S WV than the rest of the south does. First, high school completion rate, 2000:


Second, poverty rate (as a % of US average):
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2009, 03:51:01 PM »

Of course, the ARC's boundaries are political and a little weird (*cough* Shenandoah). I'm not even sure the Cumberland Plateau is geologically part of the Appalachians at all.
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Verily
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« Reply #14 on: April 15, 2009, 05:55:13 PM »

Of course, the ARC's boundaries are political and a little weird (*cough* Shenandoah). I'm not even sure the Cumberland Plateau is geologically part of the Appalachians at all.

Also, WTF are the Atlanta suburbs doing in "Appalachia"?
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #15 on: April 15, 2009, 06:13:09 PM »

Yes, the boundaries are a lot wider than "Appalachia" in any coherent sense; if wikipedia is to be trusted, this is mainly the work of congressmen on the border areas looking for pork. (Though in fairness, I imagine the Atlanta suburban counties were probably rural when it was set up in the Great Society).

But I don't think this affects the main point I was trying to make: north-central Tennessee is a serious mountain poverty area like eastern Kentucky, not merely a generic somewhat-downscale area like the hillier inland parts of the coastal southern states.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #16 on: April 16, 2009, 12:03:38 PM »

Yes, the boundaries are a lot wider than "Appalachia" in any coherent sense; if wikipedia is to be trusted, this is mainly the work of congressmen on the border areas looking for pork.
Or, in the case of the Shenandoah Valley, a congressman who didn't want his voters to be seen as Appalachian yokels.
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