California in Pres elections if Bay Area was similar to other metropolitan areas

[rob in cal]

It seems to me that one of the bedrocks of Democratic victories in Presidential (and other state wide races as well) is that the San Francisco Bay Area is Democratic both in its urban core, and wealthier suburban outer areas. In most American urban areas we find a liberal urban core, such as Detroit, Chicago, St Louis, Houston whatever, but this heavily Democratic area is usually at least partially  neutralized by a conservative suburban area so the overall vote count isn't so strongly Democratic.
   In the Bay Area, this neutralization effect is not in play, as the wealthier suburaban counties of San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara and Contra Costa still lean Democratic to varying degrees, so the overall effect is a massive surge to the Democrats from the entire Bay Area.  I'm wondering if anyone has done a study called "if Bay Area counties voted like other similar counties elsewhere in the country".  My guess is that California would go from sure Democratic state to leans Democratic.

[tmthforu94]

It seems to me that one of the bedrocks of Democratic victories in Presidential (and other state wide races as well) is that the San Francisco Bay Area is Democratic both in its urban core, and wealthier suburban outer areas. In most American urban areas we find a liberal urban core, such as Detroit, Chicago, St Louis, Houston whatever, but this heavily Democratic area is usually at least partially  neutralized by a conservative suburban area so the overall vote count isn't so strongly Democratic.
   In the Bay Area, this neutralization effect is not in play, as the wealthier suburaban counties of San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara and Contra Costa still lean Democratic to varying degrees, so the overall effect is a massive surge to the Democrats from the entire Bay Area.  I'm wondering if anyone has done a study called "if Bay Area counties voted like other similar counties elsewhere in the country".  My guess is that California would go from sure Democratic state to leans Democratic.

California would still be a pretty solid Democrat. If Republicans had an excellent candidate up, or someone from the state of California, we would have a shot, if we worked hard at it. In it's current state, the only way California would vote Republican is if the election was a landslide. One day though, who knows? California could start trending Republican. I question how liberal California is after the vote on Prop 8. (Thank you voters   )

[Sbane]

It seems to me that one of the bedrocks of Democratic victories in Presidential (and other state wide races as well) is that the San Francisco Bay Area is Democratic both in its urban core, and wealthier suburban outer areas. In most American urban areas we find a liberal urban core, such as Detroit, Chicago, St Louis, Houston whatever, but this heavily Democratic area is usually at least partially  neutralized by a conservative suburban area so the overall vote count isn't so strongly Democratic.
   In the Bay Area, this neutralization effect is not in play, as the wealthier suburaban counties of San Mateo, Marin, Santa Clara and Contra Costa still lean Democratic to varying degrees, so the overall effect is a massive surge to the Democrats from the entire Bay Area.  I'm wondering if anyone has done a study called "if Bay Area counties voted like other similar counties elsewhere in the country".  My guess is that California would go from sure Democratic state to leans Democratic.

You are right that it would be much more likely that California would be lean dem if the bay area voted "normally". This is especially true when republicans are able to do well with latino voters and can win the central valley and suburban LA by large margins. This happened in 2004 but strong performance by Kerry in the bay area assured he would win the state. I have noticed the LA area votes about the same as the rest of the state, and it voted about 54-44 in 04. If the bay area voted like that I think Kerry would have only won with a 5-6 points instead of the double digit victory he enjoyed(estimate). It wouldn't have mattered much this year as the real swing for Obama came in Southern California.

[ottermax]

Southern California is much more moderate than the Bay Area. But LA county is huge and plays an overwhelming factor in partisanship. However it isn't that liberal (prop .

[Sbane]

Southern California is much more moderate than the Bay Area. But LA county is huge and plays an overwhelming factor in partisanship. However it isn't that liberal (prop .

Yup and it is with moderates where Obama gained the most. Liberals already voted in high numbers for Kerry and they did so again for Obama.

[memphis]

It seems to me that one of the bedrocks of Democratic victories in Presidential (and other state wide races as well) is that the San Francisco Bay Area is Democratic both in its urban core, and wealthier suburban outer areas. In most American urban areas we find a liberal urban core, such as Detroit, Chicago, St Louis, Houston whatever, but this heavily Democratic area is usually at least partially  neutralized by a conservative suburban area so the overall vote count isn't so strongly Democratic.
 

With the exception of Houston, you picked really awful counterexamples