Gerlach's Seat Gets a Challenger

[Lunar]

An oppo researcher's dream

Douglas Pike, a Democrat who spent 14 years on the editorial board of the Philadelphia Inquirer, announced Wednesday that he’s running against GOP Rep. Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania’s 6th District.

The southeastern Pennsylvania-based seat, one of the few Democratic-leaning Northeastern districts that the GOP has been able to hold on to in recent years, gave 58 percent to Barack Obama in 2008. Gerlach, who was first elected in 2002, has never won with more than 52 percent.

According to a Democratic source familiar with the campaign, Pike has committed to spending as much as $1 million out of his own pocket on the race.

While all of that appears to position Pike as a credible challenger, keep in mind that GOP oppo researchers will have mountains of material to work with—everything the Inky wrote between 1987 and 2001, the period he worked there, is going to be hung around his neck. Add to that his 5 years of writing editorials for the Orlando Sentinel and you’ve got a candidate with some vulnerability to attack.

Pike is the son of former Rep. Otis Pike of New York, who served nine terms in Congress and headed the Pike Committee, before becoming a syndicated columnist for Newhouse newspapers.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0409/An_oppo_researchers_dream.html

[Rowan]

Isn't Gerlach going for governor anyway?

[Lunar]

Isn't Gerlach going for governor anyway?

edited my post to say "Gerlach's Seat," I forgot how Politico..sorry.. POLITICO is sometimes a bit slow

[Keystone Phil]

Who? Never heard of him and I'm fairly familiar with the Inquirer editorials.

Anyway, yeah, Gerlach is running for Governor but unless that's his "way out" of politics, expect him to abandon that run and run for re-election.

[Torie]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

[Rowan]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

How many of them will not vote in a midterm election? I'd guess a lot, especially the minorities(who typically have low turnouts in midterms).

[Keystone Phil]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

[Holmes]

I wonder if the seat will win.

[TeePee4Prez]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

[Keystone Phil]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

By the way, the fact that the 16th and 17th were so close just goes to show you what type of year it was. I hope you don't expect similar numbers in the future...

[TeePee4Prez]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

By the way, the fact that the 16th and 17th were so close just goes to show you what type of year it was. I hope you don't expect similar numbers in the future...

Ehh, wouldn't be so sure of that.  Granted, the GOP is improving in the 4th and 12th, but the 16th and 17th will trend Dem due to exurbs.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

So thought Chris Shays after 2006.

[TeePee4Prez]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

So thought Chris Shays after 2006.

And I would think PA 6 is the equivalent of CT 4 politically plus Shays was more socially liberal.  We should have made a stronger attempt against Gerlach in 2008.  The sit-down campaign we ran last year still was a 52-48 result.

[Keystone Phil]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

So thought Chris Shays after 2006.

And I would think PA 6 is the equivalent of CT 4 politically plus Shays was more socially liberal.  We should have made a stronger attempt against Gerlach in 2008.  The sit-down campaign we ran last year still was a 52-48 result.

The difference is that I don't think Shays has had races since 2002 in which the results were almost always the same. Gerlach has a near lock on 51% of the voters. You need Dinniman to break it. This Pike guy isn't "the one."

By the way, Gerlach is already swinging at Pike - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Gerlach_Pike_is_a_limousine_liberal.html

[Mr.Phips]

What do you think of those registration figures in PA Phil that came out?  It seems that at the moment, PA is no longer a marginal state. Hey, California once used to be a marginal state. We had exciting elections.

The ones Smash posted elsewhere? They're horrible for us but we have made some gains out west. The Dems are obviously enjoying the advantage now but that doesn't mean it will last forever.

I agree with Smash to a point, the Dems have made some drastic gains in the East.  1988 to 2008 virtually flipped inversely when you look at the county maps.  The GOP has made some impressive gains out West and pulling Murtha's district, while I didn't think it would happen, didn't exactly surprise me.  Thing is though the population is increasing in the East, not the West.  We also had our surprises like the 16th and 17th districts almost going for Obama as well.  The 16th for those who don't know contains a lot of very conservative Lancaster county. 

Ok but we're talking about the 6th. Gerlach has survived the worst of the worst.

So thought Chris Shays after 2006.

And I would think PA 6 is the equivalent of CT 4 politically plus Shays was more socially liberal.  We should have made a stronger attempt against Gerlach in 2008.  The sit-down campaign we ran last year still was a 52-48 result.

The difference is that I don't think Shays has had races since 2002 in which the results were almost always the same. Gerlach has a near lock on 51% of the voters. You need Dinniman to break it. This Pike guy isn't "the one."

By the way, Gerlach is already swinging at Pike - http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/harrisburg_politics/Gerlach_Pike_is_a_limousine_liberal.html

If the DCCC had put money in PA-06 in the final weeks of 2008, Gerlach would have likely lost.  The fact that he won by just 52%-48% against a nobody who spent little money shows how Democratic PA-06 has become. 

[Keystone Phil]

If the DCCC had put money in PA-06 in the final weeks of 2008, Gerlach would have likely lost.  The fact that he won by just 52%-48% against a nobody who spent little money shows how Democratic PA-06 has become. 

Or just shows that it's a very polarized, close district. It doesn't help that Gerlach started attacking his no name opponent in the final weeks either. It gave him some name recognition and just looked desperate. When I saw the ad (the only Gerlach ad I remember from 2008), I got a little worried.

By the way, I'm sure the GOP didn't put much money in either so it probably would have balanced out.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The difference is that I don't think Shays has had races since 2002 in which the results were almost always the same. Gerlach has a near lock on 51% of the voters. You need Dinniman to break it. This Pike guy isn't "the one."

Shays survived his races in 2004 and 2006 by 52-48 and 51-49.

And the point is, as mentioned by ICE HOCKEY, that the district has become so Democratic that Gerlach can lose in ANY year. As long of course as the DCCC finds the right candidate, like they did with Himes.
And even if he wins in 2010 is almost guaranteed to find himself redistricted. His current district was especially designed for him. But if the Democrats retain the House and/or the Governorship they will dismantle it or make it even more inhospitable.

[Keystone Phil]

Shays survived his races in 2004 and 2006 by 52-48 and 51-49.

Fair enough.

And the point is, as mentioned by ICE HOCKEY, that the district has become so Democratic that Gerlach can lose in ANY year.[/quote]

But he hasn't and has built up such a strong organization that he seems to have a lock on at least 51% of the vote.

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They aren't cracking that 51% unless they get a candidate like State Senator Andy Dinniman and he's avoided the race every chance he has gotten.
 

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That's a huge "if." If it does happen, however, you're right - he's basically a goner.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be careful about assuming that districts like PA-6 (in a very general sense that is, I mean nowhere is quite like it because it's such an illogical oddity of a district) are turning into/have turned into Democratic strongholds. They are certainly less Republican than they used to be (although a lot here would be surprised at some of the places that elected Democratic congresscritters in the '70's and '80's), but there's no reason to assume any loyalty to the Democratic Party. Political loyalty is linked to community. These districts are not communities themselves and do not include many of any sort; generally they just include places where people live. Democrats will retain an advantage (perhaps even substantial ones) in them while they retain an advantage nationally, but maybe not when they don't.

If that makes sense. It might not.

[Keystone Phil]

I would be careful about assuming that districts like PA-6 (in a very general sense that is, I mean nowhere is quite like it because it's such an illogical oddity of a district) are turning into/have turned into Democratic strongholds. They are certainly less Republican than they used to be (although a lot here would be surprised at some of the places that elected Democratic congresscritters in the '70's and '80's), but there's no reason to assume any loyalty to the Democratic Party. Political loyalty is linked to community. These districts are not communities themselves and do not include many of any sort; generally they just include places where people live. Democrats will retain an advantage (perhaps even substantial ones) in them while they retain an advantage nationally, but maybe not when they don't.

If that makes sense. It might not.

Bravo.