2012 Senate

[pragmatic liberal]

As someone mentioned up-thread, a lot will depend on how Obama does in 2012. If he wins reelection comfortably, most of the vulnerable Dems will probably hold their seats and changes in party composition will be pretty low.

If he goes down to defeat, then a decent number of Democrats could face problems.

Here's who could potentially face close races on the Democratic side:

- Claire McCaskill (MO) - MO statewide races are typically close and it will probably be close regardless of how Obama is doing. If Obama wins reelection, I'd imagine McCaskill will probably win a narrow reelection. If he loses, she probably loses a close race - possibly a rematch with Jim Talent.

- Sherrod Brown (OH) - Ohio flipped to be a pretty strongly Democratic state, but it could easily switch back, and the Ohio Democratic Party has an okay bench.

- Jon Tester (MT)

- Jim Webb (VA) - I suspect he'll hold the seat due to Virginia "blueing" or "Maryland-izing," but I think this may depend on the outcome of the 2009 governor's race. If Bob McDonnell (R) wins, that would signify the Republicans becoming competitive again, and it might open Webb to a strong challenge should Obama falter.

- WV (open)

- FL (Nelson) - he escaped a tough challenge last time, but I could easily see him facing a much tougher one this time around.

- MI (Stabenow) - If the auto industry and Michigan's economy tank and Obama's reelection numbers are low, I could easily see her being in danger.

- MN (Klobuchar) - probably safe, but she may nevertheless face a tough challenge

On the Republican side, the only real targets for Dems that I see are Arizona and *possibly* Texas.

I suspect that even if Obama is reelected, Dems may lose a couple seats overall - it's hard to sustain a very large majority long-term and presidents rarely have major coattails in their reelections (see 1984, 1972, and 1996).