2012 Senate

[Lunar]

The Democrats up include five members who will be 77 years of age or older, five who represent states that went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) last year and 10 completing their first full term in the chamber.

...

“In 2012, their goal is to get Democrats back under 60,” said Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report. “With 24 seats, the mathematical odds are pretty good.”

...

About the only feasible GOP targets available are Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and John Ensign (R-Nev.) and possibly the seat left by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), who is likely running for governor.

The map is left that way because of a disastrous 2006 cycle in which the Iraq war, GOP scandals and other factors conspired to send six GOP incumbents to defeat. Democrats took at least seven seats in 2008, but the field of opportunities was much larger.

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The crop includes freshman Sens. Jim Webb (D-Va.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)

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Democrats also might have to deal with open seats left by Sens. Robert Byrd (W.Va.), who would be 95; Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), who would be 88; Edward Kennedy (Mass.), who would be 80; Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), who would be 79; and Herb Kohl (Wis.), who would be 77.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/preventing-60-hope-for-republicans-may-be-two-elections-away-2009-04-01.html

[Lunar]

You think the Democrats have twenty Senate seats that are in danger in 2012? I'm sure Carper, Klobuchar, Whitehouse, Sanders, Cardin and Lieberman (just to name a few) are really afraid of Republican challengers.  I can't believe you can honestly only think of 4 safe Democratic seats. 

 The Democrats could be slightly aided by the fact that this tough election year will be during a higher-turnout general election.

[Lunar]

I feel like the power of the off-year versus 4/8/12 presidential year is so ignored by both this forum and the media, it's silly.

Democrats have to watch their asses way more in 2010 than in 2012.  Part of the reason why so much Democratic obstructionism is occurring.  Not that anyone cares beyond their ideological preferences.

[Lunar]

It matters a lot for campaign strategy in newly purple states, in my opinion.  I think Burr would have been eight times more vulnerable in 2008 and slightly more vulnerable in 2012, although the South is a bit funky.

You're right that the overriding factor probably isn't one party doing well in off-year elections so much as the party that isn't in power doing well.  Either way, the Democrats don't win

[Lunar]

.... I can't believe some people here are saying West Virginia could be a toss-up....

It could be post-Byrd.

Not likely at this point, but it could be.

Of course DWTL is just insane

[Lunar]

Hasn't Nelson been around in Nebraska through Democratic popularity lows before?  Like in 1994 he won reelection by one of the highest margins ever in Nebraska...I mean, he is the Senator with one of the highest (used to be THE highest) popularity rating among his own constituents.  But that probably doesn't even mean anything to your noggin