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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  2012 Senate
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Author Topic: 2012 Senate  (Read 4942 times)
Lunar
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« on: April 02, 2009, 04:59:44 pm »

The Democrats up include five members who will be 77 years of age or older, five who represent states that went for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) last year and 10 completing their first full term in the chamber.

...

“In 2012, their goal is to get Democrats back under 60,” said Jennifer Duffy of The Cook Political Report. “With 24 seats, the mathematical odds are pretty good.”

...

About the only feasible GOP targets available are Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) and John Ensign (R-Nev.) and possibly the seat left by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas), who is likely running for governor.

The map is left that way because of a disastrous 2006 cycle in which the Iraq war, GOP scandals and other factors conspired to send six GOP incumbents to defeat. Democrats took at least seven seats in 2008, but the field of opportunities was much larger.

...

The crop includes freshman Sens. Jim Webb (D-Va.), Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Bob Casey Jr. (D-Pa.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)

...

Democrats also might have to deal with open seats left by Sens. Robert Byrd (W.Va.), who would be 95; Daniel Akaka (Hawaii), who would be 88; Edward Kennedy (Mass.), who would be 80; Dianne Feinstein (Calif.), who would be 79; and Herb Kohl (Wis.), who would be 77.

http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/preventing-60-hope-for-republicans-may-be-two-elections-away-2009-04-01.html
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #1 on: April 02, 2009, 05:42:08 pm »

Yeah 2012 is gonna be a doozy, I think that much is obvious. If Obama wins re-election, then he'll probably help prevent very many losses (and may very well help out greatly in Nevada and Arizona). Or course, if he goes down in Carter-esque defeat, things might get very bad very quickly.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #2 on: April 04, 2009, 07:41:18 am »

Right now I see these as the only Safe Dem seats:

CA, NM, NY, WI
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Lunar
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« Reply #3 on: April 04, 2009, 10:24:01 am »

You think the Democrats have twenty Senate seats that are in danger in 2012? I'm sure Carper, Klobuchar, Whitehouse, Sanders, Cardin and Lieberman (just to name a few) are really afraid of Republican challengers.  I can't believe you can honestly only think of 4 safe Democratic seats. 

 The Democrats could be slightly aided by the fact that this tough election year will be during a higher-turnout general election.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #4 on: April 04, 2009, 10:26:44 am »

You think the Democrats have twenty Senate seats that are in danger in 2012? I'm sure Carper, Klobuchar, Whitehouse, Sanders, Cardin and Lieberman (just to name a few) are really afraid of Republican challengers.  I can't believe you can honestly only think of 4 safe Democratic seats. 

 The Democrats could be slightly aided by the fact that this tough election year will be during a higher-turnout general election.
I think Klobuchar and Cardin could be in danger.  I missed Rhode Island looking at the map Tongue, and I didn't count Lieberman or Sanders as Democrats.  I honestly, this far out, wouldn't count on the Republicans in any but those four seats (+VT)
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: April 04, 2009, 12:29:21 pm »

Lugar could possibly retire, no? We would have a pretty strong House bench in the state by 2012.

Corker will probably win re-election handily, since there's no one to run against him and he hasn't been too much of a nutter.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: April 04, 2009, 12:39:03 pm »

Unless something unpredictable happens, West Virginia and Montana will be the most vulnerable seats. And if Manchin runs, then he will be the heavy favorite to replace Byrd.

McCaskill could be in trouble if Obama tanks. Despite her lack of seniority, she has made a name for herself and has become a favorite of the talk show circuit.
But then again, Missouri trends Republican and Jim Talent was ousted despite having decent approval ratings.
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pragmatic liberal
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« Reply #7 on: April 04, 2009, 01:27:48 pm »

As someone mentioned up-thread, a lot will depend on how Obama does in 2012. If he wins reelection comfortably, most of the vulnerable Dems will probably hold their seats and changes in party composition will be pretty low.

If he goes down to defeat, then a decent number of Democrats could face problems.

Here's who could potentially face close races on the Democratic side:

- Claire McCaskill (MO) - MO statewide races are typically close and it will probably be close regardless of how Obama is doing. If Obama wins reelection, I'd imagine McCaskill will probably win a narrow reelection. If he loses, she probably loses a close race - possibly a rematch with Jim Talent.

- Sherrod Brown (OH) - Ohio flipped to be a pretty strongly Democratic state, but it could easily switch back, and the Ohio Democratic Party has an okay bench.

- Jon Tester (MT)

- Jim Webb (VA) - I suspect he'll hold the seat due to Virginia "blueing" or "Maryland-izing," but I think this may depend on the outcome of the 2009 governor's race. If Bob McDonnell (R) wins, that would signify the Republicans becoming competitive again, and it might open Webb to a strong challenge should Obama falter.

- WV (open)

- FL (Nelson) - he escaped a tough challenge last time, but I could easily see him facing a much tougher one this time around.

- MI (Stabenow) - If the auto industry and Michigan's economy tank and Obama's reelection numbers are low, I could easily see her being in danger.

- MN (Klobuchar) - probably safe, but she may nevertheless face a tough challenge

On the Republican side, the only real targets for Dems that I see are Arizona and *possibly* Texas.

I suspect that even if Obama is reelected, Dems may lose a couple seats overall - it's hard to sustain a very large majority long-term and presidents rarely have major coattails in their reelections (see 1984, 1972, and 1996).
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Rowan
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2009, 05:56:49 pm »

Right now I see these as the only Safe Dem seats:

CA, NM, NY, WI

NJ is safe Dem too.
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #9 on: April 04, 2009, 06:04:11 pm »

Right now I see these as the only Safe Dem seats:

CA, NM, NY, WI

What?? None of the other seats, not even MA, is "safe Dem"?? Shocked
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Nym90
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« Reply #10 on: April 04, 2009, 09:24:49 pm »

Way too early to tell what the political environment will be, of course. In a 50-50 national environment we would expect the GOP to pickup 3-4 seats simply due to the math of how many more targets they will have.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: April 05, 2009, 09:54:29 pm »

Lugar could possibly retire, no? We would have a pretty strong House bench in the state by 2012.

Corker will probably win re-election handily, since there's no one to run against him and he hasn't been too much of a nutter.

Richard Lugar was so strong a candidate last time that the Democrats ran nobody against him.  Age will eventually take him down, as it did with John Warner (R-VA), another well-respected Republican Senator.

Indiana is no longer a reliably right-wing state, and Lugar has typically run as a moderate. Should the GOP nominate a right-winger as a successor for Lugar, then Indiana stands to be a Democratic pick-up.
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Lunar
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« Reply #12 on: April 05, 2009, 10:02:15 pm »

I feel like the power of the off-year versus 4/8/12 presidential year is so ignored by both this forum and the media, it's silly.

Democrats have to watch their asses way more in 2010 than in 2012.  Part of the reason why so much Democratic obstructionism is occurring.  Not that anyone cares beyond their ideological preferences.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2009, 11:51:11 am »

Democrats have to watch their asses way more in 2010 than in 2012.  Part of the reason why so much Democratic obstructionism is occurring.  Not that anyone cares beyond their ideological preferences.

Thanks for some sanity.
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Nym90
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2009, 11:59:16 am »

I feel like the power of the off-year versus 4/8/12 presidential year is so ignored by both this forum and the media, it's silly.

Democrats have to watch their asses way more in 2010 than in 2012.  Part of the reason why so much Democratic obstructionism is occurring.  Not that anyone cares beyond their ideological preferences.


I don't think the higher turnout in a Presidential election year necessarily helps Democrats that much in Congressional races. Historically, there seems to be no correlation with one party or the other doing better in Prez years vs. midterm years.

Now, it is possible that black turnout might be lower in 2010 but higher again in 2012, as well as youth turnout. To that extent, you may be on to something. But we also can't assume it'll be dramatically lower in 2010 either as opposed to turnout among other groups.
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Lunar
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2009, 12:02:15 pm »

It matters a lot for campaign strategy in newly purple states, in my opinion.  I think Burr would have been eight times more vulnerable in 2008 and slightly more vulnerable in 2012, although the South is a bit funky.

You're right that the overriding factor probably isn't one party doing well in off-year elections so much as the party that isn't in power doing well.  Either way, the Democrats don't win
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2009, 02:11:37 pm »

Right now I see these as the only Safe Dem seats:

CA, NM, NY, WI

NJ is safe Dem too.
Not in Chrisite wins, it certainly becomes vulnerable.  If Christie loses, no NJ Republicans will win for at least 12+ years
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Holmes
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2009, 03:36:46 pm »

.... I can't believe some people here are saying West Virginia could be a toss-up....
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Lunar
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2009, 03:42:17 pm »

.... I can't believe some people here are saying West Virginia could be a toss-up....

It could be post-Byrd.

Not likely at this point, but it could be.

Of course DWTL is just insane
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2009, 06:31:37 pm »

2012 is going to be a tough year for us.  Luckily, most of the Open Seats will be in states which lean Democratic (MA), or have almost no Statewide GOP force (HI, WV).  Most of our pickups are states where the GOP bench is weak; our most difficult seat to hold will likely be Webb's, and if McDonnell loses, then I don't see who can win statewide for the GOP.  Also, most of our incumbents in McCain states that didn't win in 2006 are so thoroughly entrenched (Nelson of Nebraska, Conrad) that they likely won't draw a major challenger.

We need to make sure that we begin fundraising early, and try to prevent major chllangers appearing.  I think we have 13 safe seats (HI, CA, WA, NM, NE, ND, MN, WI, MD, DE, NY, MA, and RI), but that still leaves us with 8 seats to defend.  The GOP, by contrast, only has 9 seats to defend in total, of which only 1 (NV) is potentially close.

This will be a tough year, but as long as there isn't a massive wave against the candidates, we should be able to hold most of the seats.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2009, 09:20:06 pm »

Alright that's kind of funny
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2009, 11:12:48 pm »


If you read the entire post, I said that Nelson is safe because he is so popular, nobody will challenge him.  If he got a top notch challenger, then it would be a close race.
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DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
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« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2009, 09:18:57 am »


If you read the entire post, I said that Nelson is safe because he is so popular, nobody will challenge him.  If he got a top notch challenger, then it would be a close race.
Popularity can change in 4 years + its Nebraska so a Dem can't be safe.  Think Lincoln Chafee
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Lunar
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« Reply #23 on: April 10, 2009, 10:58:34 am »

Hasn't Nelson been around in Nebraska through Democratic popularity lows before?  Like in 1994 he won reelection by one of the highest margins ever in Nebraska...I mean, he is the Senator with one of the highest (used to be THE highest) popularity rating among his own constituents.  But that probably doesn't even mean anything to your noggin
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #24 on: April 10, 2009, 11:10:18 am »

Hasn't Nelson been around in Nebraska through Democratic popularity lows before?  Like in 1994 he won reelection by one of the highest margins ever in Nebraska...I mean, he is the Senator with one of the highest (used to be THE highest) popularity rating among his own constituents.  But that probably doesn't even mean anything to your noggin

Exactly.  Nelson is going to be safe.
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