Structural advantages for Republicans in 2010 state elections

[CARLHAYDEN]

As I noted in another thread on this board, Democrats enjoy structural advantages for the 2010 Congressional elections, but, Republicans have structural advantages in the 2010 state elections as:

A. There are more Governor seats held by Democrats up for election, and

B.  More state legislative seats held by Democrats up for election.

So, while Republican gains in the Senate may be minimal and in the U.S. House relatively small, gains in Governors and state legislators will probably be substantial.

This is particularly significant for redistricting for the 2012 - 2020 elections (which is still done by the state legislatures in most states).

[Mr.Phips]

As I noted in another thread on this board, Democrats enjoy structural advantages for the 2010 Congressional elections, but, Republicans have structural advantages in the 2010 state elections as:

A. There are more Governor seats held by Democrats up for election, and

B.  More state legislative seats held by Democrats up for election.

So, while Republican gains in the Senate may be minimal and in the U.S. House relatively small, gains in Governors and state legislators will probably be substantial.

This is particularly significant for redistricting for the 2012 - 2020 elections (which is still done by the state legislatures in most states).

The governorship gains for Republicans wont be that big.  They are probably favored to pick up Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Kansas and Wyoming as well if Freudenthal cant run for another term(many suspect he will be able to).  Pennsylvania and Michigan are pure tossups.  Democrats are favored to pick up Hawaii, Rhode Island, and California.  The likely scenario is Republicans picking up a net of two or three governorships. 

[Holmes]

I think at this point, southern states like Tennessee and Alabama are tossups too.

But yeah, Republicans might get more net wins, but I think it'll mostly be some tradeoffs. Like, Republicans claim Kansas and Democrats claim California, Republicans claim Oklahoma and Democrats claim Hawaii, etc...

[Brittain33]

Sounds like the structural advantages Democrats had going into 2002 state elections. And, indeed, Democrats picked up some states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Overall, it didn't make the election a good one for Dems.

[Joe Republic]

Sounds like the structural advantages Democrats had going into 2002 state elections. And, indeed, Democrats picked up some states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Overall, it didn't make the election a good one for Dems.

They picked up eleven states, and lost eight.

[Brittain33]

Sounds like the structural advantages Democrats had going into 2002 state elections. And, indeed, Democrats picked up some states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. Overall, it didn't make the election a good one for Dems.

They picked up eleven states, and lost eight.

Yes... my memory is that the Democrats got the pick-ups we were expected to get, but by narrower margins than expected (MI and PA, but also WI, AZ) while many close races went Republican, potential races never became competitive (NY, TX, OH, AK), and the South was a disaster. I was shocked that Romney won. The 2002 state elections were a case where Democrats "did well," but totally failed to beat the spread. Winning in Oklahoma and Kansas wasn't much consolation to Democrats outside those states.

[Bono]

I think at this point, southern states like Tennessee and Alabama are tossups too.

But yeah, Republicans might get more net wins, but I think it'll mostly be some tradeoffs. Like, Republicans claim Kansas and Democrats claim California, Republicans claim Oklahoma and Democrats claim Hawaii, etc...

Lol.

Both those states are trending republican, and have had the GOP make significant grains in the state legislature the past two election cycles (especially Tennessee).

[Brittain33]

Both those states are trending republican, and have had the GOP make significant grains in the state legislature the past two election cycles (especially Tennessee).

Tennessee is surely trending Republican on a state level. Alabama, no. It has jerked back and forth with substantial Democratic energy at times, and the Democratic results in the federal races last year was a remarkable sign and indicator of greater hope down-ballot.