Reagan/Bush vs. Glenn/Robb(1984)

[Historico]

Ok lets say that Vice President Mondale decides not to run against the popular Reagan, leaving the the Democratic Race wide open. Senator Glenn takes the oppurtunity to capitilize on the newly released film about his Mercury Crew in the Right Stuff to win the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire primary. He is able to appeal to working class-Democrats with an populist campaign hailing back to his Rust-Belt days. He is able to clinch the nomination in a three pronged raced between himself, Gary Hart, and Jesse Jackson. Glenn chooses, the relativley young(I think he would be around 45 at the convention)moderate to conservative Governor of Virgina Chuck Robb to balance the ticket.

Reagan/Bush recieved their renomination unopposed, and the economic/political/soical conditions of the 1984 election stay virtually the same as IOTL. The Glenn/Robb ticket campaigns hard in the Industrial states and in the south However, during the three debates, Reagan does not say the "Youth and Inexperience" line and seems kinda old and confused in all of them. Robb is able to win over alot of voters with his Southern charm during the Vice Presidential Debate against the bland Bush.

So how does the epic battle between The Astronaut vs The Actor turn out ?

[bhouston79]

The election is more competitive than in RL, and at times during the campaign such as immediately following the Democratic Convention it appears as though Glenn may have a shot.  But in the end, Reagan carries about an 8 to 10 point lead coming into election night, and he wins by a large margin.  On election night, the election isn't called as early as it was in real life; and several large states on the East Coast and in the Midwest including New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Glenn's home state),  and Illinois are simply too close to call for most of the evening.  The Glenn campaign is heartened by the fact that they are running well ahead of where Carter was running in 1980 in the early returns from each of those states.  Nevertheless, in the end, Reagan's popularity is too much to overcome, and the election is called at 10:47 p.m. when the state of New Mexico finally puts Reagan over the top.  However, the fact that the election was not called so early in the evening results in Glenn being more competitive than Mondale was in real life on the West Coast as more Democrats make it to the polls after work believing that there is still an outside chance that he could win.  Reagan wins his home state of California by a relatively meager 6% and he carries both Oregon and Washington by razor thin margins.  In the South, Glenn/Robb wind up being much more competitive than Mondale/Ferraro were in real life, but the only truly competitive state turns out to be Tennessee, which Reagan manages to win by about 4 percent.  In the end, the election night map winds up looking like this:

Popular Vote
Reagan/Bush   53.6%
Glenn/Robb      45.7%

Electoral College
Reagan/Bush   412
Glenn/Robb      126

States decided by less than 5%
Oregon
Washington
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
New York
Tennessee
Hawaii

States decided by 6-10%
California
New Mexico
Minnesota
Missouri
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Maryland
Deleware
New Jersey
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
Rhode Island

[TeePee4Prez]

[WalterMitty]

very little changes.

democrats carry mn, ny, ma, ri, wv and md.

they fail to carry oh.

[Historico]

The election is more competitive than in RL, and at times during the campaign such as immediately following the Democratic Convention it appears as though Glenn may have a shot.  But in the end, Reagan carries about an 8 to 10 point lead coming into election night, and he wins by a large margin.  On election night, the election isn't called as early as it was in real life; and several large states on the East Coast and in the Midwest including New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio (Glenn's home state),  and Illinois are simply too close to call for most of the evening.  The Glenn campaign is heartened by the fact that they are running well ahead of where Carter was running in 1980 in the early returns from each of those states.  Nevertheless, in the end, Reagan's popularity is too much to overcome, and the election is called at 10:47 p.m. when the state of New Mexico finally puts Reagan over the top.  However, the fact that the election was not called so early in the evening results in Glenn being more competitive than Mondale was in real life on the West Coast as more Democrats make it to the polls after work believing that there is still an outside chance that he could win.  Reagan wins his home state of California by a relatively meager 6% and he carries both Oregon and Washington by razor thin margins.  In the South, Glenn/Robb wind up being much more competitive than Mondale/Ferraro were in real life, but the only truly competitive state turns out to be Tennessee, which Reagan manages to win by about 4 percent.  In the end, the election night map winds up looking like this:

Popular Vote
Reagan/Bush   53.6%
Glenn/Robb      45.7%

Electoral College
Reagan/Bush   412
Glenn/Robb      126

States decided by less than 5%
Oregon
Washington
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Ohio
West Virginia
Pennsylvania
New York
Tennessee
Hawaii

States decided by 6-10%
California
New Mexico
Minnesota
Missouri
Kentucky
Georgia
Arkansas
Louisiana
Maryland
Deleware
New Jersey
Connecticut
Maine
Massachusetts
Rhode Island

,
BH, I think you hit the nail on the hammer with that one, let's assume that Robb although not bringing any Southern States, he does bring several of them within range. He is able to win the 1988 Nomination against Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson. Looking to expand the base of the Democratic Party, He chooses the popular and well-experienced, Senior Senator Alan Cranston of California as his running mate. Things essentially stay the same on the Republican Side. Here's how I think the map would turn out.

Chuck Robb/Alan Cranston: 306 Electoral Votes
George H.W. Bush/Dan Quayle: 234 Electoral Votes

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Reagan still wins, albeit by a smaller margin than in real life.

[Kaine for Senate '18]