2000 election: McCain/Bauer vs. Gore/Feinstein

[impactreps]

Let's go back to 2000, when times were good and the White House was a national punchline.

For the Republicans, George W. Bush is the early frontrunner but John McCain stuns him and the GOP establishment with a landslide victory in New Hampshire. Everything from then on proceeds as in our timeline, except McCain doesn't give the "agents of intolerance" speech after his wins in the Michigan and Arizona primaries. As a result, McCain, with the overwhelming support of independents and Democratic crossovers, beats Bush in California, New York, and Georgia on Super Tuesday, and clinches the nomination sometime in April. Seeking to unify the party and win the support of the Religious Right, McCain picks early supporter and former rival Gary Bauer as his running mate, and the two leave the GOP convention with Bush's endorsement and a large lead over the Democrats.

The Democratic primaries proceed pretty much the same as in real life, and Gore crushes Bradley to cruise to the nomination. Aware that McCain, a moderate, has the potential to make drastic inroads among the Democratic coalition, and also weary of Ralph Nader pulling enough liberal votes away to be a spoiler, Gore selects California Senator Dianne Feinstein as his running mate in order to consolidate the left wing of his party and shore up his deficit among female voters.

McCain's large lead over Gore shrinks after the Democratic convention, but the two remain neck-and-neck for the rest of the race. In the final weeks of the campaign, McCain pulls ahead due to better-than-expected debate performances and new revelations about President Clinton's role in Whitewater. Here is how I envision the result going:

Electoral Vote:

McCain/Bauer: 330
Gore/Feinstein: 208

Popular Vote: (Total vote is same as in real life)

McCain/Bauer: 54,817,087 (52%)
Gore/Feinstein: 47,437,864 (45%)
Nader/LaDuke: 3,162,524 (3%) - Assume for the sake of argument that Nader receives all non-major party votes.

I would appreciate your opinions and ideas on the result.

[anvi]

Interesting scenario.  How about that Bauer-Feinstein VP debate?!  Anyway, McCain will win.  But a lot of complex dynamics get worked into it.  Feinstein will draw lots of female support, and McCain not making the agents of intolerance speech might not swing quite as many Independents or Democrats to his side, though of course not making that speech and picking Bauer will help with the GOP base. (Honestly, I don't think McCain would have needed to reach as far right as Bauer for a VP had he not made that speech, because the base was ready to support any nominee within the pale to keep a Democrat out of the White House for another term.) I think these dynamics are enough to allow Gore to keep Michigan, and I don't see McCain winning Pennsylvania either.  McCain might well swing Wisconsin and Oregon though, that's a possibility.  So, I think it's a little closer than in your scenario, but McCain still wins the electoral college by about 289-249 and wins the popular vote by about 51-48. 

[anvi]

Only other comment I had was that I think you've got California way too close.  If Gore picks Feinstein, he wins California in a walk.

[War on Want]

Gore would do better in the South if McCain was the nominee.

[Lincoln Republican]

I really believe that 2000 would have been McCain's year to shine as a Presidential nominee.

After 8 years of Democratic administration, McCain the maverick, as he was in 2000, would have defeated Gore, the Vice President so closely tied to the Clinton administration, who was trying to distance himself from that administration.

I do not believe that the running mates would really have much of an impact on the election, no matter who they were, as long as they were at least credible.

McCain wins comfortably, although not overwhelmingly.  Florida is still close, however, McCain wins it comfortably enough so that it is not in question.

Interesting selection of running mates.

McCain/Bauer                         301
Gore/Feinstein                        237

[Kaine for Senate '18]

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

A Gore/McCain election would be great !
...although I think McCain would win easily :

McCain : 51%, 304 E.V.
Gore : 47%, 234 E.V.