OK, something I was thinking about in exit polls

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama won 35% of evangelical Christians in Minnesota. Now 35% sounds like a small minority, but that's more than a third. That means if you go to your typical evangelical church service, every third person voted for Obama.

Now doesn't that just strike anyone as bizarre? Seriously.

[cinyc]

Obama won 35% of evangelical Christians in Minnesota. Now 35% sounds like a small minority, but that's more than a third. That means if you go to your typical evangelical church service, every third person voted for Obama.

Now doesn't that just strike anyone as bizarre? Seriously.

All evangelical congregations are not created equal.  Some are more conservative than others.  I suspect Minnesota has a lot of members of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, which tends to be much more liberal than your typical evangelical congregation.  Yet, since "evangelical" is in the church's name, many members would consider themselves as such when asked by a pollster.  You'd be more likely to run into an Obama supporter there than at some Southern Baptist congregation in Minnesota (if there is such a thing).

Thus, to say that if you go to your typical evangelical church service, every third person voted for Obama is a fallacy.  Averages mask variations in data.

[Brittain33]

What cinyc said. There are plenty of liberal evangelicals out there; liberal on social justice and communitarian grounds, even if conflicted on social issues. Obama spoke to those people like few Democrats have.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm a member of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. It's not an evangelical church. The name is a misnomer, dating from a time when "Evangelical" was basically a synonym for "Protestant" in Sweden, much like various uses of the term "liberal" in other countries. ELCA is by any definition a mainline denomination and not too many members would identify as "Evangelical" in that definition (please note the wording actually asks Evangelical/Born Again.)

[Alcon]

I'm a member of the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. It's not an evangelical church. The name is a misnomer, dating from a time when "Evangelical" was basically a synonym for "Protestant" in Sweden, much like various uses of the term "liberal" in other countries. ELCA is by any definition a mainline denomination and not too many members would identify as "Evangelical" in that definition (please note the wording actually asks Evangelical/Born Again.)

Right, but it only takes a handful to poison these numbers.  We too often trust that exit poll respondents have any idea of what they're talking about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...which is hilarious as we know that they often lie.

[minionofmidas]

35% sounds awful high given that MN didn't swing all that much and where it swung.

That said, of course there's a goodly number of Obama voters at almost every single goddamn Evangelical service across the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

35% sounds awful high given that MN didn't swing all that much and where it swung.

I'd like to compare it to Kerry's numbers, but they didn't ask that question it seems, but rather "Are you a white, conservative Protestant?", which is a very very stupid question.

That said, of course there's a goodly number of Obama voters at almost every single goddamn Evangelical service across the country.

Eh, Pentecostals in rural Alabama or those old fire and brimstone ones? I wouldn't be surprised if a third of people at Saddleback for example voted for Obama but compare that to what I mentioned before.

[minionofmidas]

35% sounds awful high given that MN didn't swing all that much and where it swung.

I'd like to compare it to Kerry's numbers, but they didn't ask that question it seems, but rather "Are you a white, conservative Protestant?", which is a very very stupid question.

*Sort of* the same, though, and treated as equivalent in 2004 (they asked the one in some states, the other in others) - although I would agree that phrasing is likely to screen out some Democrat religiouses.

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Eh, Pentecostals in rural Alabama or those old fire and brimstone ones? I wouldn't be surprised if a third of people at Saddleback for example voted for Obama but compare that to what I mentioned before.
[/quote]Eh. Wherever services are large (at some really cool snakehandling mountain churches, they won't be).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

35% sounds awful high given that MN didn't swing all that much and where it swung.

I'd like to compare it to Kerry's numbers, but they didn't ask that question it seems, but rather "Are you a white, conservative Protestant?", which is a very very stupid question.

*Sort of* the same, though, and treated as equivalent in 2004 (they asked the one in some states, the other in others) - although I would agree that phrasing is likely to screen out some Democrat religiouses.

"Conservative" is just a rather stupid word to use for that sort of question.

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Eh, Pentecostals in rural Alabama or those old fire and brimstone ones? I wouldn't be surprised if a third of people at Saddleback for example voted for Obama but compare that to what I mentioned before.

Eh. Wherever services are large (at some really cool snakehandling mountain churches, they won't be).
[/quote]

Eh, does Hagee's church have a lot of Democrats?

[Nym90]

Exit poll crosstabs like this have low sample sizes, and ELCA having evangelical in its name, while misleading, is going to lead people who are members to say they are evangelical.

Obama may well have come close to carrying the ELCA membership vote nationally, actually.

[Alcon]

Exit poll crosstabs like this have low sample sizes, and ELCA having evangelical in its name, while misleading, is going to lead people who are members to say they are evangelical.

Obama may well have come close to carrying the ELCA membership vote nationally, actually.

I'd be surprised if he didn't carry ELCA.  He won mainstream Protestants pretty handily, and are Lutherans really more conservative than mainstream Prots in general?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama got 60% of white non-Evangelical Protestants in Minnesota. He must've won ELCA pretty handidly with that number.