Three important trends

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

As soon as it's ready, I'm going to post maps of all elections from 1968-2000, showing how states voted vs. the national popular vote.  It yields some cool visualization.  I'll also be making "trend" maps showing how these states are shifting relative to the nation.

Anyway, in doing this, I have encountered three important trends so far:

1. The Prairie Shift: WI, MN, IA, IL, ND, SD, NE, KS, MT
In the prairie states, the rural areas have shifted drastically to the right.  It has turned moderate states like SD and MT into heavily Republicans states, and heavily Democratic states like WI, IA, and MN into Moderate states.  In IL, the Prairie Shift is counterbalanced by the Metro Shift in Chicagoland.

2. The East Coast Shift: DE, NJ, CT, NH, ME
The non-urban East Coast, from the Mid-Atlantic through New England, has shifted drastically to the left.  DE and CT are now solidly Democrat, and NH and ME are now swing states.  The fate of NJ remains to be seen, as its shift to the left is very recent, and many polls are indicating a close race in 2004.  NY, RI, and MD have also been effected, although not as much.

3. The Metro Shift (nationwide):
Densely populated areas are becoming more and more Democratic, especially the suburbs.  The shift of the Chicago Suburbs from Republican to Democrat, for example, has kept IL safely in the hands of the Democrats.  Michigan is probably the state that is most dramatically affected by this shift.

Other oddball trends:
Pennsylvania.  This state has been getting steadily more Republican since 1984, and doesn't seem to be following any larger trends.

More on this will be posted later, when I have more time...

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Come to think of it, the state that is even MORE dramatically affected by the Metro Shift is Florida.  It has become incrementally more Democratic each election.  If the current trends hold, FL should go to Kerry 3-5% better than the national PV.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Other oddball trends:
Pennsylvania.  This state has been getting steadily more Republican since 1984, and doesn't seem to be following any larger trends.

To a certain degree, that's a result of "the Politics of Abortion"

I think Abortion may be a moderating influence on the Metro Shift, as urban Catholics are becoming less and less enthusiastic about Democrats.  But then, Abortion probably plays a role in all of these trends.  I think it's one of the main things driving the Prairie Shift.  Unless the Democrats moderate on Abortion, they will permamently lose their Midwestern strongholds.  Unless the Republicans do likewise, they can forget about the Northeast and California.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Are you referring to presidential elections or general politics as a whole?

Presidential elections only.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Other oddball trends:
Pennsylvania.  This state has been getting steadily more Republican since 1984, and doesn't seem to be following any larger trends.

More on this will be posted later, when I have more time...

Stop smoking the supersoulty/KeystonePhil crackpipe.  If you're looking at Pittsburgh, you're right.  If you're looking at Philadelphia, you're wrong.  Which metro area is bigger?  My point exactly. 

I'm looking at the state as a whole.  Here's how PA has gone relative to the nation:

1984: 10.9% +Dem
1988: 5.4% +Dem
1992: 4.5% +Dem
1996: 0.7% +Dem

2000 actually saw a swing back to the Democrat side.  Don't know if that means the pendulum has swung the other way or not.  But from 84-96, PA was moving the opposite direction from the other states of the Northeast.