Three important trends

[ATFFL]

The fate of NJ remains to be seen, as its shift to the left is very recent, and many polls are indicating a close race in 2004.  

A high %-age of Jersey voters are left leaning independents.  As of right now, any decent democratic canidate will do very well here.  Gore in 2000 wasn't a great canidate, but it's not like he was the worst choice.  56% of NJ voted for Gore. (only NY, MA, RI, and MD gave Gore a higher percentage)  For the last several weeks, Kerry has looked like an idiot.  Jersey will rarely vote for an idiot anything.  We are also one big suburb, so we have alot of those middle class inner suburbs that are also largely republican.  That benefits Bush.  Our large black population of social liberalism among even those republican families is what helps democrats.

My overall view of my state is that security is the one thing that can benefit the GOP here.  Alot of security moms and the sort.  But almost every other issue helps the democrats.  If this election winds up close, Kerry wins easily.  

BTW, we are very much part of that left-swing going on in the northeastern suburbs.  I could see us giving democrats over 60% in fture presidential elections, especially ones where social issues play a bigger role.  

That is about the best analysis of NJ I have ever read.  NJ is not a democrat state in the same sense of RI and MA.  They are not Kool-Aid drinkers.  Given a strong, moderate Republican and a loony left liberal, the Republican will likely win.

A major factor keeping northern NJ from going as far left as NY probably is the desire to be as little like the city as possible.

[ATFFL]

The fate of NJ remains to be seen, as its shift to the left is very recent, and many polls are indicating a close race in 2004. 

A high %-age of Jersey voters are left leaning independents.  As of right now, any decent democratic canidate will do very well here.  Gore in 2000 wasn't a great canidate, but it's not like he was the worst choice.  56% of NJ voted for Gore. (only NY, MA, RI, and MD gave Gore a higher percentage)  For the last several weeks, Kerry has looked like an idiot.  Jersey will rarely vote for an idiot anything.  We are also one big suburb, so we have alot of those middle class inner suburbs that are also largely republican.  That benefits Bush.  Our large black population of social liberalism among even those republican families is what helps democrats.

My overall view of my state is that security is the one thing that can benefit the GOP here.  Alot of security moms and the sort.  But almost every other issue helps the democrats.  If this election winds up close, Kerry wins easily. 

BTW, we are very much part of that left-swing going on in the northeastern suburbs.  I could see us giving democrats over 60% in fture presidential elections, especially ones where social issues play a bigger role. 

That is about the best analysis of NJ I have ever read.  NJ is not a democrat state in the same sense of RI and MA.  They are not Kool-Aid drinkers.  Given a strong, moderate Republican and a loony left liberal, the Republican will likely win.

A major factor keeping northern NJ from going as far left as NY probably is the desire to be as little like the city as possible.

That is why Bush cannot win here.  He is not a moderate.  A guy like Guiliani has a really good shot here, but I don't see how the conservative wing of the GOP would allow that.  You would basically need the match-up you described for the GOP to win in the current NJ. 

There is one other factor that does give Bush an outside shot at NJ.  Namely the collapse of the state democratic party with the McGreevey situation.  That situation has given the whole party something to work against this year, and possibly until the next gubenatorial election. 

It is not enough to give NJ to Bush alone, but with a poor Kerry campaign and a good Bush campaign, he could squeak out a win in NJ.  I would bet on it, but only because the payoff would be big enough and I love betting a good longshot.  THe NJ republican party needs to find a reasonable way to keep the McGreevey situation in the news though.

[ATFFL]

" THe NJ republican party needs to find a reasonable way to keep the McGreevey situation in the news though."

Actually Tedrick, I think that McGreevy has a pretty high approval rating. Higher than Bush's anyway I believe.

I also consider it pretty shallow to do that. But something Rove would probably try.

Someone can be doing a good job and have a high approval rating and still kill the party.  Look at Bill CLinton.  The Democrats lost power under him, even when his approval rating was good.

Is it pretty shallow?  Yep.  Is it good politics?  Yep.  Both parties do it all the time.

[ATFFL]

Jerseyites are smart

Now there are words rarely seen in sequence.  <G>

[ATFFL]

Jerseyites are smart

Now there are words rarely seen in sequence.  <G>

Tredrick, we have some of the better edicational atttainment levels in the united states. According to Morgan Quinto, we is 4th, behind only Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Conneticut.

This will explain everything:

I am originally from Long Island.

And when did you become a libertarian?