The fate of NJ remains to be seen, as its shift to the left is very recent, and many polls are indicating a close race in 2004.
A high %-age of Jersey voters are left leaning independents. As of right now, any decent democratic canidate will do very well here. Gore in 2000 wasn't a great canidate, but it's not like he was the worst choice. 56% of NJ voted for Gore. (only NY, MA, RI, and MD gave Gore a higher percentage) For the last several weeks, Kerry has looked like an idiot. Jersey will rarely vote for an idiot anything. We are also one big suburb, so we have alot of those middle class inner suburbs that are also largely republican. That benefits Bush. Our large black population of social liberalism among even those republican families is what helps democrats.
My overall view of my state is that security is the one thing that can benefit the GOP here. Alot of security moms and the sort. But almost every other issue helps the democrats. If this election winds up close, Kerry wins easily.
BTW, we are very much part of that left-swing going on in the northeastern suburbs. I could see us giving democrats over 60% in fture presidential elections, especially ones where social issues play a bigger role.
