As soon as it's ready, I'm going to post maps of all elections from 1968-2000, showing how states voted vs. the national popular vote. It yields some cool visualization. I'll also be making "trend" maps showing how these states are shifting relative to the nation.
Anyway, in doing this, I have encountered three important trends so far:
1. The Prairie Shift: WI, MN, IA, IL, ND, SD, NE, KS, MT
In the prairie states, the rural areas have shifted drastically to the right. It has turned moderate states like SD and MT into heavily Republicans states, and heavily Democratic states like WI, IA, and MN into Moderate states. In IL, the Prairie Shift is counterbalanced by the Metro Shift in Chicagoland.
2. The East Coast Shift: DE, NJ, CT, NH, ME
The non-urban East Coast, from the Mid-Atlantic through New England, has shifted drastically to the left. DE and CT are now solidly Democrat, and NH and ME are now swing states. The fate of NJ remains to be seen, as its shift to the left is very recent, and many polls are indicating a close race in 2004. NY, RI, and MD have also been effected, although not as much.
3. The Metro Shift (nationwide):
Densely populated areas are becoming more and more Democratic, especially the suburbs. The shift of the Chicago Suburbs from Republican to Democrat, for example, has kept IL safely in the hands of the Democrats. Michigan is probably the state that is most dramatically affected by this shift.
Other oddball trends:
Pennsylvania. This state has been getting steadily more Republican since 1984, and doesn't seem to be following any larger trends.
More on this will be posted later, when I have more time...
Seems like, perversely, the areas that are experiencing economic decline are moving to the right politically, while the areas that are doing relatively better economically are moving left. There must be something religious and social behind this, rather than economic.
