Pakistan Now an al-Qaeda Base

[Frodo]

Does anyone here thinks we will eventually need to militarily intervene in Pakistan, perhaps with a full-fledged invasion when Islamabad falls into the hands of the Taliban/Al Qaeda?
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Al Qaeda's Global Base Is Pakistan, Says Petraeus;
U.S. Central Command Chief Says Group Has Shifted Operations There, While Afghani Taliban Plan 'Surge' of Their Own

By YOCHI J. DREAZEN

WASHINGTON -- Senior leaders of al Qaeda are using sanctuaries in Pakistan's lawless frontier regions to plan new terror attacks and funnel money, manpower and guidance to affiliates around the world, according to a top American military commander.

Gen. David Petraeus, who oversees the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, said in an interview that Pakistan has become the nerve center of al Qaeda's global operations, allowing the terror group to re-establish its organizational structure and build stronger ties to al Qaeda offshoots in Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, North Africa and parts of Europe.

The comments underscore a growing U.S. belief that Pakistan has displaced Afghanistan as al Qaeda's main stronghold. "It is the headquarters of the al Qaeda senior leadership," said the general, who took the helm of the military's Central Command last fall.

In the interview, Gen. Petraeus also warned of difficult months ahead in Afghanistan, saying Taliban militants are moving weapons and forces into areas where the U.S. is adding troops, planning a "surge" of their own to counter the U.S. plan.

The commander said the U.S. had intelligence showing that the Taliban were deploying new fighters to southern Afghanistan, appointing new local commanders, and prepositioning weapons and other supplies.

"We have every expectation that the Taliban will fight to retain the sanctuaries and safe havens that they've been able to establish," he said.

[Nhoj]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

[Frodo]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

[Nhoj]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

you have too much faith in the Taliban, they aren't cable of defeating the Pakistani military on ground that is not favorable to them, the Pakistani military isn't competent but that does not make them incapable of defending the capital of Pakistan from a bunch of ragtag warriors look at Peshawar for instance yes its becoming a haven for Taliban and they have alot of influence in the city, but the Taliban still don't control the city militarily and that city lies right on the edge of Taliban controlled area.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

Likewise here.  If Islamabad ever does fall, then we need to be there in <24 hours to take the Taliban out.

[Frodo]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

you have too much faith in the Taliban, they aren't cable of defeating the Pakistani military on ground that is not favorable to them, the Pakistani military isn't competent but that does not make them incapable of defending the capital of Pakistan from a bunch of ragtag warriors look at Peshawar for instance yes its becoming a haven for Taliban and they have alot of influence in the city, but the Taliban still don't control the city militarily and that city lies right on the edge of Taliban controlled area.

The Pakistani army may be militarily capable of defending the capital against the Taliban, but I have doubts on whether they really want to.  Many in the Pakistani military (and/or their families) are sympathetic to the aims of the Taliban, and are generally unwilling to turn their weapons on fellow Muslims -in fact, there have been a number of desertions since the government has again decided to fight against them.  Who is to say that a critical mass of Pakistani soldiers won't suddenly decide to turn their guns against their government and join forces with the Taliban?

[??????????]

Anyone want to give JMF kudos yet?

[Nhoj]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

you have too much faith in the Taliban, they aren't cable of defeating the Pakistani military on ground that is not favorable to them, the Pakistani military isn't competent but that does not make them incapable of defending the capital of Pakistan from a bunch of ragtag warriors look at Peshawar for instance yes its becoming a haven for Taliban and they have alot of influence in the city, but the Taliban still don't control the city militarily and that city lies right on the edge of Taliban controlled area.

The Pakistani army may be militarily capable of defending the capital against the Taliban, but I have doubts on whether they really want to.  Many in the Pakistani military (and/or their families) are sympathetic to the aims of the Taliban, and are generally unwilling to turn their weapons on fellow Muslims -in fact, there have been a number of desertions since the government has again decided to fight against them.  Who is to say that a critical mass of Pakistani soldiers won't suddenly decide to turn their guns against their government and join forces with the Taliban?

i didn't say they wouldn't a islamist coup is possible, a Taliban victory however is unlikely. anyways the solders would likely back whatever general is in charge of the army from what i can tell that is where the true loyalty of the military lies the sympathies for Taliban the come from the fact that the ISI is largely responsible for creating the Taliban, its more likely that the military would use the Taliban than vice versa. i actually expect a military coup whether its secularists or islamists is a entirely different question.

[The Mikado]

Anyone want to give JMF kudos yet?

Not yet, no.

[Frodo]

Islamabad wont fall into Taliban hands however i could still see military intervention but i hope not.

You have a lot of faith in the Pakistani military, more so than I do (which is none at all). 

Likewise here.  If Islamabad ever does fall, then we need to be there in <24 hours to take the Taliban out.

Our more important priority would be to secure the nuclear weapons and materials which, from what I heard, are based primarily in eastern Pakistan (Punjab, Sindh). 

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Our more important priority would be to secure the nuclear weapons and materials which, from what I heard, are based primarily in eastern Pakistan (Punjab, Sindh). 

Yes, yes, very true.

[Eraserhead]

Anyone want to give JMF kudos yet?

Of course not.

[Purple State]

Anyone want to give JMF kudos yet?

jmfcst said Pakistan's government would fall and the Taliban would take over. First, this article doesn't even address that so what the hell is all this discussion of the Taliban? They aren't going to take over the government. If anything, the military may allow them to kill Zardari and then it would take over itself and insert a general as dictator.

Second, this is old news. We have known for a while that al-Qaeda was working from the lawless mountainous region between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

[Sam Spade]

More than likely the military takes over the country again before the government falls (which it will - Bhutto's husband is a complete joke like she was).  

The question is whether the military is strong enough to hold on.  I suspect that it is - Pakistan's military is competent (about the only thing that is there), but you never really know for sure.  Sending our military in there would be a complete disaster - though we should fund the military, obviously.