TOOMEY: IT'S ON!!!!!!!!

[Lunar]

Actually, this shouldn't be too nasty. Toomey starts out with one of the clearest advantages for a candidate in a contested primary. Sure, he needs to hit Arlen on the issues but many of the moderates that are usually siding with Specter are starting to turn on him as well.

Specter already has $6 million dollars and we're forever far away.  How does not end up being bitter, considering he can double that?

Are primaries where each side spends $10 million ever not bitter?  Any historical examples?

[CultureKing]

I feel like Toomey's connection with Club For Growth could be a very big disadvantage for him going into the general election. In the end this could indeed be a very interesting race.

[Lunar]

I feel like Toomey's connection with Club For Growth could be a very big disadvantage for him going into the general election. In the end this could indeed be a very interesting race.

I don't think most people know or care who they are.  CFG hasn't really had much of a role in Pennsylvania since Toomey's last run.  I think his connections with CFG are actually a bonus since he'll be able to spend far less time creating a fundraising network and more time campaigning.

[Speed of Sound]

And so it begins. Dammit this better be a good race, Im lookin for a tooth and nail fight down to the bone. Let's do it gang, lets give the nation a show! (Assuming we find a candidate )

I freaking love living here. Massachusetts/Texas must be such a bore.

[Nixon in '80]

What are the odds Specter pulls a Lieberman?

I know the the situation is dramatically different, and Specter wouldn't have a chance in hell... I'm just asking, does anybody think he'd try it?

[TeePee4Prez]

And so it begins. Dammit this better be a good race, Im lookin for a tooth and nail fight down to the bone. Let's do it gang, lets give the nation a show! (Assuming we find a candidate )

I freaking love living here. Massachusetts/Texas must be such a bore.

A Specter 3rd party would make this really interesting.  I doubt it would happen in such a partisan state like ours.  Which means this...  80% chance Specter will stick with the GOP, but as Phil said Arlen is out for Arlen and his new base of support is more with the Democrats so I'll give a 20% chance he'll go back to his pre-1965 roots.  Either way, he won't be re-elected in 2011.  If it were Specter-Schwartz in a primary, Specter would get a lot of votes and might crack 40% with strong union support, but that's about it.  Toomey-Specter, ditto the other way.

I think he's one of the older men who just love to work like JoePa and a Principal at my old CPA firm who would come into work the day he got a blood transfusion.  I think he would go shortly after he lost.  Specter just reminds me of that A-type personality where work keeps him going. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I expect Toomey to beat Specter in the GOP primary, then get his ass whooped throughout Pennsylvania by whomever the Dems nominate.

Pennsylvania has changed. They will not elect a wingnut to statewide office again.

That's not true. Senator Casey will be re-elected.

[Keystone Phil]

What are the odds that the PA GOP endorses Toomey, and when will they do that?

The endorsement is next year. Toomey will probably get the endorsement. You want to know the hilarious part? Specter is even taking heat from the GOP establishment here in Philly (they always saved him). I'm hearing from a lot of people that they don't care to save him this time and this is huge.

By the way, some of us now have a direct say in whether or not Specter gets the backing of City Committee. Guess who will be a voice against him getting it? 

I'll make a note of something that everyone will see as really minor but it means something...

Our local political paper (The Public Record) has a column by a local Republican politico (who has remained nameless for years). It's called "Elephant's Corner." I posted a link elsewhere since I was featured in there today.    You know I just had to get that in again.    Anyway, "Trunk Man," who is typically a fan of the city GOP establishment (and believed to be a member of it), told readers to remember Specter when they go to vote next year after ranting about the Stimulus Plan. Like I said, it seems minor but these little cracks in the last Specter stronghold shows that we're in for a Toomey landslide.

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

And no, Smash, he's not going to get smashed in the SE at least not like Santorum. Toomey isn't as polarizing and actually appeals to those types out there in the suburbs on fiscal/economics.

He definitely has his work cut out for him with suburban voters especially if Schwartz runs.  There would however, need to be a massive shift back to the GOP in Montgomery County for Toomey to have a chance.  The one thing you guys can go with his the 2007 elections.  I thought it would be Castor, Hoeffel, Damsker, but Matthews beat even Hoeffel MUCH to my surprise.  It's not likely for Toomey to win Montgomery Co. though.  If he keeps the Dem to a 55-45 margin there, he might have a chance statewide.  I will reiterate-  if it's anything like now or 2006, you better hope the Dems nominate Chaka Fattah if you think you're going to win with Toomey.  Obama's in honeymoon-land, but anything can happen between now and then just like 1992 to 1994.  PA is a smidge left of center and if you want Toomey to prevail, you better hope the stimulus is an utter failure. 

Dude, he definitely "has a chance" and he doesn't need to keep it to a ten point loss (which I think he will though) just to "have a chance."

Sure, if it's another 2006/2008, Toomey won't win. Stop thinking that it probably will be though. Anything can happen but that's just not that likely.

I am assuming Specter will lose the primary.  The GOP base in PA is far more conservative than it was in 2004.  We are getting more like Oregon with a more pronounced liberal Dem/conservative GOP as opposed to the 1980s where it was Piitsburgh and Philly Dem and anything goes elsewhere.

It's not that we're far more conservative; it's that Specter doesn't have Bush and Santorum to whip the conservatives into supporting him. Sure, on the whole, we are more conservative because more liberals and moderates left the party but even moderates are pissed with Specter recently.

Actually, this shouldn't be too nasty. Toomey starts out with one of the clearest advantages for a candidate in a contested primary. Sure, he needs to hit Arlen on the issues but many of the moderates that are usually siding with Specter are starting to turn on him as well.

Specter already has $6 million dollars and we're forever far away.  How does not end up being bitter, considering he can double that?

Are primaries where each side spends $10 million ever not bitter?  Any historical examples?

His money only gets him so far this time. He's not switching massive amounts of registrations, he doesn't have Bush and Santorum, he has too many recent votes hanging around his neck, etc. His money can only make it so nasty.

What are the odds Specter pulls a Lieberman?

I know the the situation is dramatically different, and Specter wouldn't have a chance in hell... I'm just asking, does anybody think he'd try it?

0%

He knows he wouldn't have a chance as an Independent. Look for the signs of him pulling a party switch though. It's his last chance. If he doesn't do that, he'll just go down without a lot of whining.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

[Keystone Phil]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

I'm not going at it with you again on this issue. I'm giving you an answer and then let it be.

Specter is a notorious pork barreller, which many of us believe to be totally fiscally irresponsible.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

I'm not going at it with you again on this issue. I'm giving you an answer and then let it be.

Specter is a notorious pork barreller, which many of us believe to be totally fiscally irresponsible.

Jesus, I can't even ask questions? I'm confused as to where Specter turned into a fiscal liberal. Aside from the stimulus, which alot of Republican Governors supported (or at least supported the spirit of) Specter has remained at least center right on most economic issues.

I know you don't like me, but you don't have the right to look smart while immediately dismissing legitimate inquiry.

Pork is an issue yes, but some of the biggest "pork barrellers" were Cochran (R-MS) and Shelby (R-AL). Is the GOP going to primary him, too? There must be more than "pork."

[Keystone Phil]

Pork is an issue yes, but some of the biggest "pork barrellers" were Cochran (R-MS) and Shelby (R-AL). Is the GOP going to primary him, too? There must be more than "pork."

We're not just challenging Specter on pork though. There are social issues and Specter's general hostility towards the party. He guilts enough people into backing him, promises favors and then stabs them in the back. We don't like him. He's fooled around with us long enough. We want him gone. It's his stances on the issues and his general attitude.

And, just for the record, I obviously don't condone Cochran and Shelby for what they've done either.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Pork is an issue yes, but some of the biggest "pork barrellers" were Cochran (R-MS) and Shelby (R-AL). Is the GOP going to primary him, too? There must be more than "pork."

We're not just challenging Specter on pork though. There are social issues and Specter's general hostility towards the party. He guilts enough people into backing him, promises favors and then stabs them in the back. We don't like him. He's fooled around with us long enough. We want him gone. It's his stances on the issues and his general attitude.

And, just for the record, I obviously don't condone Cochran and Shelby for what they've done either.

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues, and just as a side question, do liberal social issues in your opinion make someone not a Republican even if they're still economically conservative?

[Smash255]

What are the odds that the PA GOP endorses Toomey, and when will they do that?

The endorsement is next year. Toomey will probably get the endorsement. You want to know the hilarious part? Specter is even taking heat from the GOP establishment here in Philly (they always saved him). I'm hearing from a lot of people that they don't care to save him this time and this is huge.

By the way, some of us now have a direct say in whether or not Specter gets the backing of City Committee. Guess who will be a voice against him getting it? 

I'll make a note of something that everyone will see as really minor but it means something...

Our local political paper (The Public Record) has a column by a local Republican politico (who has remained nameless for years). It's called "Elephant's Corner." I posted a link elsewhere since I was featured in there today.    You know I just had to get that in again.    Anyway, "Trunk Man," who is typically a fan of the city GOP establishment (and believed to be a member of it), told readers to remember Specter when they go to vote next year after ranting about the Stimulus Plan. Like I said, it seems minor but these little cracks in the last Specter stronghold shows that we're in for a Toomey landslide.

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

And no, Smash, he's not going to get smashed in the SE at least not like Santorum. Toomey isn't as polarizing and actually appeals to those types out there in the suburbs on fiscal/economics.

He might not be as polarizing as Santorum, but he is just as conservative, and you also have to look at the Dem candidates.  Schwartz is a MUCH better fit for the SE than Casey is, and is from the SE.  So it basically cancels each other out and brings you back to square one.  Of course it isn't going to be like 06/ or 08 forever, but in order for Toomey to have a chance the climate for the Dems in 2010 has to be at least as bad as it was for the GOP in 06/ 08 if not worse.

[Keystone Phil]

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues

No

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No and I've said that several times before. Specter supports wasteful, big spending proposals. I don't believe that he's economically conservative.

He might not be as polarizing as Santorum, but he is just as conservative, and you also have to look at the Dem candidates.  Schwartz is a MUCH better fit for the SE than Casey is, and is from the SE.  So it basically cancels each other out and brings you back to square one.  Of course it isn't going to be like 06/ or 08 forever, but in order for Toomey to have a chance the climate for the Dems in 2010 has to be at least as bad as it was for the GOP in 06/ 08 if not worse.

No, it doesn't. We've been over this, Smash. They don't cancel out. Turnout will most likely favor the GOP in 2010 so Schwartz or whoever can't run up similar margins of victory with as big of an impact statewide.

[Marokai Backbeat]

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues

No

Then you're reduced to having to prove Specter is an economic liberal. What evidence of this do you have?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No and I've said that several times before. Specter supports wasteful, big spending proposals. I don't believe that he's economically conservative.[/quote]

The question was actually not pertaining to Specter, It was a general question that I asked out of curiosity, because you always refer to social issues as examples of why Specter is secretly a liberal but when I ask if social issues are why many people and yourself (I'm not just talking about your opposition to him here) oppose Specter, you say no.

(Edit: This is seriously just out of curiosity and has nothing to do with Specter specifically, but could you please answer yes or no to whether you think someone who is a social liberal doesn't meet the definition of Republican despite being an economic conservative?)

You can point to the stimulus as a reason for why you dislike Specter, which is all well and good, but you and many many others have hated Specter years and years before this economic mess popped up, so one would assume there would be more behind this vehement opposition to Specter, because what you've referred to ("pork") doesn't seem to justify the extreme distaste for one specific Republican.

Since you've denied social issues are the prime motivation behind this opposition, I'm guessing then that it's back to economic issues, which he has been conservative on the vast majority of the time. (This of course depends on what issues you lump into the category of economic.)

[Smash255]

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues

No

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No and I've said that several times before. Specter supports wasteful, big spending proposals. I don't believe that he's economically conservative.

He might not be as polarizing as Santorum, but he is just as conservative, and you also have to look at the Dem candidates.  Schwartz is a MUCH better fit for the SE than Casey is, and is from the SE.  So it basically cancels each other out and brings you back to square one.  Of course it isn't going to be like 06/ or 08 forever, but in order for Toomey to have a chance the climate for the Dems in 2010 has to be at least as bad as it was for the GOP in 06/ 08 if not worse.

No, it doesn't. We've been over this, Smash. They don't cancel out. Turnout will most likely favor the GOP in 2010 so Schwartz or whoever can't run up similar margins of victory with as big of an impact statewide.

I don't think who gets helped out by the turnout will be all that much different than 06.  Yes 06 was a terrible year for the GOP, but it wasn't due to turnout.  

[CARLHAYDEN]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

Uh, as I mentioned in another thread, Specter has voted and will vote for 'card check' over secret ballot.

[Keystone Phil]

Then you're reduced to having to prove Specter is an economic liberal. What evidence of this do you have?

...

This is what one of our other arguments was about. I told you I'm not doing this. Get over it, kid.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wrong.

I've referred to more than just social issues as why Specter is a liberal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Specter has voted for other big spending proposals and isn't much of a critic of tax hikes.

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues

No

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No and I've said that several times before. Specter supports wasteful, big spending proposals. I don't believe that he's economically conservative.

He might not be as polarizing as Santorum, but he is just as conservative, and you also have to look at the Dem candidates.  Schwartz is a MUCH better fit for the SE than Casey is, and is from the SE.  So it basically cancels each other out and brings you back to square one.  Of course it isn't going to be like 06/ or 08 forever, but in order for Toomey to have a chance the climate for the Dems in 2010 has to be at least as bad as it was for the GOP in 06/ 08 if not worse.

No, it doesn't. We've been over this, Smash. They don't cancel out. Turnout will most likely favor the GOP in 2010 so Schwartz or whoever can't run up similar margins of victory with as big of an impact statewide.

I don't think who gets helped out by the turnout will be all that much different than 06.  Yes 06 was a terrible year for the GOP, but it wasn't due to turnout.  

Uh...what?

I never said 2006 was bad because of turnout. I'm saying that the turnout favored the Dems though. In Obama's first midterm, it likely won't favor his party. However, something big could happen/the GOP can remain unpopular and maybe we'll see another 2002.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

Uh, as I mentioned in another thread, Specter has voted and will vote for 'card check' over secret ballot.

Hatred of Specter has lasted a long time, I'm just saying that there has to be more to this opposition to Specter than one or two economic issues, one which is very very recent.

[Lunar]

Don't you think he is going to try and hit Specter hard on social issues during the Primary??  His focus might be fiscal issues, but social issues will still be a big portion of the Primary.  Helps him in the Primary, but hurts him in the General.  He is going to get destroyed in suburban Philly especially if he winds up going up against Schwartz.

Sure he will. He did in 2004, too. Like I said, he's a social conservative. That being said, he also hit Specter on fiscal issues.

Leaving out the stimulus, I'm confused as to what fiscal issue Specter turned liberal on.

Uh, as I mentioned in another thread, Specter has voted and will vote for 'card check' over secret ballot.

Hatred of Specter has lasted a long time, I'm just saying that there has to be more to this opposition to Specter than one or two economic issues, one which is very very recent.

I don't think Specter has traditionally been the key switching vote on major partisan Democratic initiatives.    I mean, in the recent past, the Republicans controlled Congress until 2006 and until 2008, the GOP had the White House and only a single vote disadvantage.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well, I definitely think Toomey will beat Specter in the primary. I'd probably vote for Toomey too. I am worried about the hemorrhaging of moderates from the party, but Specter's vote on the stimulus was enough to send him packing.

If Obama's first 5 weeks is any indication of his first 2 years, the GOP will have a good cycle in 2010.

[Smash255]

Then you're reduced to having to prove Specter is an economic liberal. What evidence of this do you have?

...

This is what one of our other arguments was about. I told you I'm not doing this. Get over it, kid.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Wrong.

I've referred to more than just social issues as why Specter is a liberal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Specter has voted for other big spending proposals and isn't much of a critic of tax hikes.

So are you admitting most of the opposition comes from Specter's social issues

No

 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No and I've said that several times before. Specter supports wasteful, big spending proposals. I don't believe that he's economically conservative.

He might not be as polarizing as Santorum, but he is just as conservative, and you also have to look at the Dem candidates.  Schwartz is a MUCH better fit for the SE than Casey is, and is from the SE.  So it basically cancels each other out and brings you back to square one.  Of course it isn't going to be like 06/ or 08 forever, but in order for Toomey to have a chance the climate for the Dems in 2010 has to be at least as bad as it was for the GOP in 06/ 08 if not worse.

No, it doesn't. We've been over this, Smash. They don't cancel out. Turnout will most likely favor the GOP in 2010 so Schwartz or whoever can't run up similar margins of victory with as big of an impact statewide.

I don't think who gets helped out by the turnout will be all that much different than 06.  Yes 06 was a terrible year for the GOP, but it wasn't due to turnout.  

Uh...what?

I never said 2006 was bad because of turnout. I'm saying that the turnout favored the Dems though. In Obama's first midterm, it likely won't favor his party. However, something big could happen/the GOP can remain unpopular and maybe we'll see another 2002.

What I mean is the turnout differences between 2006 and 2010 aren't likely to be all that great.   Turnout may help the GOP in 2010, but even if it does I doubt it will help them as much as you think.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It may not, but he environment should not be as harsh as it was in 2006/2008. If the stimulus is a big success, then Toomey will have no chance. However, if it is, I'll be in awe of Obama and will probably become a Democrat. Last time we tried massive government programs, it took us 12 years to get out of the hole.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Then you're reduced to having to prove Specter is an economic liberal. What evidence of this do you have?

...

This is what one of our other arguments was about. I told you I'm not doing this. Get over it, kid.

I am stunned that someone as dismissive and devoid of substantive responses is actually taken seriously on this forum. For all that is good and holy, if you're going to argue Specter is an economic liberal, show me something aside from vague statements like "he supports big spending wasteful projects."

Not only is that vague, but several of the Republicans have earmarked useless projects. Don't insult my intelligence with the BS that a big reason you've hated Specter so intensely for years is because of pork.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Specter has voted for other big spending proposals and isn't much of a critic of tax hikes.[/quote]

Could you show me some of these "big spending proposals" and how they're worse than other Republicans to make Specter deserving of such specific hatred?

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He doesn't exactly seem like a tax hiking addict, either, Phil. (No, before you say something, I don't think Arlen Specter is addicted to tax increases or that I think that you said Arlen Specter is addicted to tax increases.)

Look, you can hate on me, dismiss me, condescend with me, whatever you like. You don't like me, you've made that abundantly clear, and you've neglected to respond to a PM I sent you saying I didn't like these little confrontations at all. But don't misrepresent me or act as if I'm just here to attack you and pick on you.

My arguments with you are not because of personal issues or the result of petty harassment like with some of your past arguments from ages ago with people like Deano963, or something other. My arguments with you are because I genuinely think you are completely wrong. I respond to things like this with my detailed opinions and my information from sources I looked up before hand to back up my point because I think that is what debate is all about. All I want from you is the same courtesy.

Once we had a discussion off-site on the drinking age, and you actually gave me information and a convincing argument that lowering it is dangerous and has failed in the past. You swayed me to your way of thinking on that issue because you responded fairly, maturely, and with accurate information (that admittedly you didn't give me in a link, but I still found it) that I could actually look up and find. I know you're intelligent, so when we're having these discussions, remember that I'm not out to get you, I'm out to have a fair debate with an intelligent individual. The problem is your behavior has been anything but fair to me.