George W. Bush vs. Howard Dean 2004 (user search)
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  George W. Bush vs. Howard Dean 2004 (search mode)
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Author Topic: George W. Bush vs. Howard Dean 2004  (Read 7253 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: March 28, 2009, 09:44:49 AM »

Howard Dean wins on exuberance and a fifty-state strategy that forces the GOP to defend everything. He barely wins, but he does win.  He can't be Swiftboated.

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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,841
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2009, 02:29:24 PM »

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263
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pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,841
United States


« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2009, 08:53:57 PM »

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263
Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.


The favorite son effect is worth about enough for a vice-Presidential candidate to make a difference of 7-8%. Because Missouri wins the election outright, Gephardt doesn't need to stray far from Missouri.
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pbrower2a
Atlas Star
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Posts: 26,841
United States


« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2009, 11:31:57 AM »

Dean/Gephardt?

Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:



Dean/Gephardt    275
GWB/Cheney      263
Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.


The favorite son effect is worth about enough for a vice-Presidential candidate to make a difference of 7-8%. Because Missouri wins the election outright, Gephardt doesn't need to stray far from Missouri.
So, what you are saying is that no matter who is on the ticket as presidential or vice presidential candidate of a major party, they will automatically win there homestate as long as it would have otherwise been lost by seven or eight percent?

I just figure that Gephardt does most of his campaigning in Missouri... and that is enough.
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