Dean/Gephardt?
Dean wins everything that Gore won in 2000, and picks up New Hampshire. Because of the Favorite Son effect worth about 10%, Gephart delivers Missouri, which was close in real life. Republicans steal Ohio and Florida for Dubya, but it isn't enough to stop a Dean victory:
Dean/Gephardt 275
GWB/Cheney 263
Missouri was the fifteenth closest state in 2004 behind Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado, Florida, New Jersey, and Washington. There was a 7.20% margin in Missouri. So, it was not as close as you indicate.
And, how would Bush steal Florida in 2004 which he won by five points that year? And, I have never been totally convinced that Bush stole Ohio in 2004. So, if Bush stole Ohio, did Kerry steal Wisconsin? He probably did, using your logic.
Gore also stole New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oregon in 2000.