The new Kansas Senate Race
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Joe Biden 2020
BushOklahoma
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« on: March 01, 2009, 08:48:25 PM »

Since Gov. Sebelius has been named, and should be confirmed, to the HHS, what does that do to the Senate race since Sen. Brownback is running for Governor.  Who becomes the favorites in both parties and who becomes the favorite to capture the seat.
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Lunar
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2009, 08:51:04 PM »

Why would anything have changed between Tiahrt and Moran?  I posted some Democrats interested in the race in my US Discussion board thread, but no one has declared since the news is so recent.  I mean, did it really matter who the Democrats ran for the open seat in Idaho in 2008?

obviously no favorites have emerged on the Democratic side because no one has hinted at anything, word
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Ronnie
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2009, 09:12:50 PM »

I'm guessing that someone like Anthony Hensley or Janis Lee would become the favorites for the Democratic nomination, and Tiahrt or Moran would become the favorites for the GOP nomination.

After the nomination process is over, there will be a generic and boring campaign, and the GOP candidate will come out on top in something like a 55-43 win.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2009, 11:07:11 PM »

When's the last time a Democrat was a Senator from Kansas?  Isn't it the 1920s or something?

I don't see any reason that'll change after 2010, but I wasn't seeing any reason why that would change anyway.
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Lunar
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2009, 11:16:30 PM »
« Edited: March 01, 2009, 11:22:27 PM by Lunar »

When's the last time a Democrat was a Senator from Kansas?  Isn't it the 1920s or something?

I don't see any reason that'll change after 2010, but I wasn't seeing any reason why that would change anyway.

Not that it matters, but didn't Bob Kerrey and Ben Nelson kind of do that Governor->Senator route in a very similar state?
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Meeker
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« Reply #5 on: March 02, 2009, 01:35:15 AM »

FTR Sen. George McGill (D) left office in January 1939. They've only had three Democrats in state history (and two Populists).

We have no shot at this race. It's like the Idaho of 2010.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #6 on: March 02, 2009, 03:13:13 AM »

     If you exclude Sebelius, is there any remotely possible matchup of a Democrat & a Republican in Kansas that the Democrats could win?
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Lunar
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« Reply #7 on: March 02, 2009, 03:19:16 AM »

Not unless something really freaky occurs.

I mean, no one thought Dole was vulnerable (which is why two of the top two Democratic contenders in North Carolina fought each other in the governor's primary and some unknown State Senator won).  I'm too lazy to look up if Tiahrt or Moran have had to have actually competitive races in the past (I only research interesting states, which doesn't include CA) but I suppose there's an outside chance that one of them has a campaign-destroying gaffe that could help a Democrat win in a fluke.  It'd have to be Macacax3 though.

But that'd be really freaky in Kansas.  Maybe not as freaky as LaRocco winning in Idaho in 2008, but more freaky than Noriega beating Cornyn in Texas in '08.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #8 on: March 02, 2009, 05:49:28 AM »

As I wrote in another thread, there is a state senator from Whichita, Raj Goyle, who is considered the Democratic Party's rising star in Kansas.

But even if he runs, which is unlikely, he will prefer to go for Tiahrt's house seat.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #9 on: March 02, 2009, 07:53:11 PM »

Well the state is safe now, if they pick someone good they might make it closer but without Sebelius they really can't win now.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #10 on: March 02, 2009, 07:56:05 PM »

I really wished Obama had picked Dean instead of Sebelius. She's pretty much the only Democrat who has a good chance of taking Brownback's seat.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #11 on: March 03, 2009, 02:17:08 PM »

Unfortunatley, this is now a Safe Republican seat.
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Nym90
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« Reply #12 on: March 03, 2009, 02:40:46 PM »
« Edited: March 03, 2009, 02:42:34 PM by Nym90 »

When's the last time a Democrat was a Senator from Kansas?  Isn't it the 1920s or something?

I don't see any reason that'll change after 2010, but I wasn't seeing any reason why that would change anyway.

The last Dem to win a Senate race there was 1932, which was also coincidentally the last time the Democratic nominee wasn't a joke.

Hmm, maybe Dems only win Senate races in Kansas in the midst of depressions.....that's a good omen for 2010, right? Wink
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #13 on: March 03, 2009, 11:16:28 PM »

When's the last time a Democrat was a Senator from Kansas?  Isn't it the 1920s or something?

I don't see any reason that'll change after 2010, but I wasn't seeing any reason why that would change anyway.

Bill Roy got within two points of Bob Dole in 1974 losing 51-49. He wasn't a joke. Jill Docking in 1996 lost 55-43 and was serious. Sally Thompson that same year was the State Treasurer.

The last Dem to win a Senate race there was 1932, which was also coincidentally the last time the Democratic nominee wasn't a joke.

Hmm, maybe Dems only win Senate races in Kansas in the midst of depressions.....that's a good omen for 2010, right? Wink
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2009, 09:59:12 AM »

I think I have the quoting right...

Bill Roy got within two points of Bob Dole in 1974 losing 51-49. He wasn't a joke. Jill Docking in 1996 lost 55-43 and was serious. Sally Thompson that same year was the State Treasurer.

Jill Docking's case wasn't helped by her being Jewish and by her opponent (I forget which) making a point of calling her Jill Sadowsky Docking.
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HAnnA MArin County
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« Reply #15 on: March 10, 2009, 06:10:28 PM »

     If you exclude Sebelius, is there any remotely possible matchup of a Democrat & a Republican in Kansas that the Democrats could win?

Simply put, no.

My take: The Kansas Democratic Party simply needs to raise another Kathleen Sebelius. Right now, the only top-drawer Democrat I can think of who could *maybe* run a close race would be Rep. Dennis Moore (KS-03) who represents the most (and only) liberal parts of the state in and around Kansas City and the college town of Lawrence. I'm sure if Moore vacated the seat to run for the Senate, he could possibly give Moran or Tiahrt a competitive race, but I'd still give the edge to the Republican whoever (s)he may be because let's face it, Kansas will be as Kansas will be. Also, I don't think Moore would risk his safe House seat for a risky Senate seat, though.

Another possible contender could be Nancy Boyda. She surprised everyone when she won KS-02 in 2006 but was one of the few Democratic freshmen incumbents who was ousted in 2008 to State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins (R). That may say something about her electability.
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SamInTheSouth
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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2009, 12:58:21 PM »


I mean, no one thought Dole was vulnerable (which is why two of the top two Democratic contenders in North Carolina fought each other in the governor's primary and some unknown State Senator won). 

Democrats have always held the majority in North Carolina despite it's preference for Republicans in Presidential elections.  It never really has been a Republican state, not like Kansas is.
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