How long can a state be "trending Republican" without any Republican statewide victories?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A thought that came to me, people have insisted Minnesota is "trending Republican" since I started posting here. But it's been 14 years of "trending Republican" since the last time a Republican won a statewide election.

[Alcibiades]

I do agree with you, the insistence from some posters that MN is trending R is annoying as hell. The only data point they have is one election (2016 Presidential) in which the Dems suffered from an exceptionally high third party vote.

[RINO Tom]

I haven't looked at the numbers and don't follow specific states' politics that closely, so I am not commenting on Minnesota, specifically.  However, couldn't the answer theoretically be, like, decades?  I mean, if a state like Utah started out at Romney-levels of Republicanism and ~trended Democratic~ at a modest pace, it would be a LONG time before Democrats made up enough ground to actually WIN.

[Vosem]

A thought that came to me, people have insisted Minnesota is "trending Republican" since I started posting here. But it's been 14 years of "trending Republican" since the last time a Republican won a statewide election.

I'm not sure Minnesota has coherently trended Republican since 2006 (this is normally done on the basis of presidential elections: MN trended right in 2008 and 2016, but left in 2012 and 2020. In summary it was about six points left of the nation in 2004 but only three points left in 2020, which is a rightward trend but not a *huge* one), but Republicans have won some statewide elections since 2006: they won the popular vote for the Minnesota House of Representatives in 2010, 2014, and 2016, and for the state Senate in 2010.

Also, perhaps an ominous sign: while Minnesota Democrats did win the total U.S. House vote in 2020, Minnesota was actually right of the US as a whole (MN was D+2.5, the US as a whole was D+3.1). I don't know when the last time was that that happened, but it was before the 21st century at least.

(But you're right that not being able to win any statewide office since 2006, even though Democrats have put up some pretty stunningly bad candidates, is extremely embarrassing. Not even the FL Dems have such a record of failure).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A thought that came to me, people have insisted Minnesota is "trending Republican" since I started posting here. But it's been 14 years of "trending Republican" since the last time a Republican won a statewide election.

Also, perhaps an ominous sign: while Minnesota Democrats did win the total U.S. House vote in 2020, Minnesota was actually right of the US as a whole (MN was D+2.5, the US as a whole was D+3.1). I don't know when the last time was that that happened, but it was before the 21st century at least.

Come on man, you should know that was because of Ilhan Omar's extreme underperformance, which wouldn't apply to virtually any other Democrat. What would be the numbers if the Democratic candidate in MN-05 received the same number of votes as Biden?

[RI]

Technically forever. Just apply Zeno's Paradox to the swing.

[lfromnj]

A thought that came to me, people have insisted Minnesota is "trending Republican" since I started posting here. But it's been 14 years of "trending Republican" since the last time a Republican won a statewide election.

Also, perhaps an ominous sign: while Minnesota Democrats did win the total U.S. House vote in 2020, Minnesota was actually right of the US as a whole (MN was D+2.5, the US as a whole was D+3.1). I don't know when the last time was that that happened, but it was before the 21st century at least.

Come on man, you should know that was because of Ilhan Omar's extreme underperformance, which wouldn't apply to virtually any other Democrat. What would be the numbers if the Democratic candidate in MN-05 received the same number of votes as Biden?

Well you wouldn't go the same as Biden. You would give Mn05 the same relative performance that the other 3 twin cities got compared to Biden.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Technically forever. Just apply Zeno's Paradox to the swing.

Not really, because Zeno's Paradox is based on the premise that you can divide a distance into an infinite number of pieces. That wouldn't be true with voting numbers since eventually you'd hit a swing of only one vote.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

It kind of reminds me of a reverse North Carolina.  Everyone insists that North Carolina is trending Democratic, but it has stubbornly 6 points to the right of the national popular vote four straight presidential elections and hasn't elected a Democrat to federal office since 2008.

[RI]

Technically forever. Just apply Zeno's Paradox to the swing.

Not really, because Zeno's Paradox is based on the premise that you can divide a distance into an infinite number of pieces. That wouldn't be true with voting numbers since eventually you'd hit a swing of only one vote.

You're assuming a static population. With population growth, it can continue forever.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

As a point of information Minnesota currently has a 4/4 delegation, which its had twice prior this century 2011-2013, and 2001-2007. This is likely due to the political geography of the state, but I think Minnesota is like Florida. It’s always just out of reach statewide, but the out party can be very competitive in the congressional seats.

[ProgressiveModerate]

As a point of information Minnesota currently has a 4/4 delegation, which its had twice prior this century 2011-2013, and 2001-2007. This is likely due to the political geography of the state, but I think Minnesota is like Florida. It’s always just out of reach statewide, but the out party can be very competitive in the congressional seats.

The way MN's geography is, there are always a disproportionate amount of swing House districts in the state. In 2018 for instance, 6/8 congressional districts were considered competative. This means that MN tends to be a bit more reactive to wave years and stuff on the House level.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It kind of reminds me of a reverse North Carolina.  Everyone insists that North Carolina is trending Democratic, but it has stubbornly 6 points to the right of the national popular vote four straight presidential elections and hasn't elected a Democrat to federal office since 2008.

North Carolina trended Democratic by more than 3 percentage points in 2004, by 3 points in 2008 and by 1 points in 2012. Then it had an almost negligible Democratic trend in 2016 and an even more negligible Republican trend in 2020.
So maybe North Carolina was indeed trending Democratic for a decade and then it has stopped?

[Sol]

It kind of reminds me of a reverse North Carolina.  Everyone insists that North Carolina is trending Democratic, but it has stubbornly 6 points to the right of the national popular vote four straight presidential elections and hasn't elected a Democrat to federal office since 2008.

North Carolina trended Democratic by more than 3 percentage points in 2004, by 3 points in 2008 and by 1 points in 2012. Then it had an almost negligible Democratic trend in 2016 and an even more negligible Republican trend in 2020.
So maybe North Carolina was indeed trending Democratic for a decade and then it has stopped?

The bottom fell out on Democratic performances with rural white voters in NC in 2016--there are a few counties which voted for Obama in recent memory which Trump won last year by a decent margin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

As a point of information Minnesota currently has a 4/4 delegation, which its had twice prior this century 2011-2013, and 2001-2007. This is likely due to the political geography of the state, but I think Minnesota is like Florida. It’s always just out of reach statewide, but the out party can be very competitive in the congressional seats.

Of course previous 4/4 delegations were based on Collin Peterson, so it was more like 3.5/8 Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

Much of the Deep South "trended Republican" starting in 1936, without any actual Republican victories until 1964.  There can be very long term movement before a state flips. 

[GALeftist]

I guess my take is that it could be decades or more, but longer trends lead to more chance that the trend halts or reverses. NC vs GA is a perfect example of this; despite GA being monumentally more Republican for most of recent history, GA's faster trend made its flipping more assured, while NC's slower trend seems to have stalled out.

[TML]

It depends on the overall speed of the trend. For example, Silver Bow and Deer Lodge Counties in Montana (which contain the cities of Butte and Anaconda, respectively) are longtime Democratic strongholds which trended Republican over the last several election cycles. However, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue in the post-Trump era, and at this point the Democratic margins there are sufficiently large enough that I don’t envision them becoming Republican strongholds (like Appalachia) until at least a generation from now.