1980 George H W Bush vs Ted Kennedy

[Lincoln Republican]

As a follow up to my previous thread 1980 George H W Bush vs Jimmy Carter, hcallega thought a more intresting race would be between George H W Bush and Ted Kennedy.  So here it is.

In 1980

George H W Bush defeats Ronald Reagan to win the Republican Presidential nomination.  Bush picks a powerhouse politician from the midwest, Illinois Governor Jim Thompson, as his Vice Presidential running mate.

In a surprise upset, Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy defeats incumbent President Jimmy Carter to win the Democratic Presidential nomination.  In an attempt to appeal to more moderate, as well as liberal, voters, Kennedy picks respected Georgia Senator Sam Nunn as his Vice Presidential running mate.

How does this 1980 election turn out?

Democrat
Senator Ted Kennedy (MA)
Senator Sam Nunn (GA)

Republican
Former U.N. Ambassador, former CIA Director, former Congressman George H W Bush (TX)
Governor Jim Thompson (IL)

Use maps if you wish. 

   

[anvi]

A closer race than the other one to be sure.  The Kennedy name and the pick of Nunn for VP make for a promising combination in the Northeast and the South.  The most hotly contested states are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Missouri and Kentucky, but the Kennedy-Nunn ticket comes up just short in all of them, and the Republican strengths in the west and the economic and international difficulties the country faces still land Bush into the White House.

Bush/Thompson  367
Kennedy/Nunn    171

[Landslide Lyndon]

Bush/Thompson    314
Kennedy/Nunn      214

I agree that the election would be decided in the Rust Belt, where the blue collar workers would still reject the Democratic policies.

And Kennedy wouldn't fare that well in the South as regional son Carter. If the latter barely carried Alabama and Mississippi in 1976, I can't see how Kennedy would carry them in his defeat.

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

Bush : 48%, 309 E.V
Kennedy : 44%, 229 E.V

Kennedy manages to win more liberal States, but loses the South.

[anvi]

JFK in 1960 won the South because of Johnson, so I was assuming that, in the scenario, Ted Kennedy picks Sam Nunn for a similar kind of assist in those states.  I think in 1980 the South was still relatively fertile Democratic territory as long as a Southerner was on the ticket.  On the other hand, the opposite seems true of the West coast in 1980, which was mostly Republican territory all the way back to the '50's.  I have a very hard time seeing a Kennedy-Nunn ticket winning any states in the West when incumbant President Carter didn't even break 40% in any of them in real life.     

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

Democrats lost most of the South with the Civil Rights act. If a Southerner running for presidency could win it, a Northerner with a southerner as running mate will be more tough.

[Kaine for Senate '18]