Australia, Queensland - 21 March 2009

[Smid]

For anyone interested, this link showed up in my google alerts this morning: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/887

Trugarez! That's a great blog.

Anyways. I entered the latest polling 2PP figures into ABC's calc applet and it sez Labour 48, LNP 37, Others 4.

LNP needs 53.2% 2PP to win outright, 52.9% LNP on 2PP gives a hung parliament. Doesn't factor in how indies might vote (IIRC, a few are close to the LNP-indies, like in Gladstone).

This is indeed a good blog.

The 53.2% necessary is a disturbingly high figure, but I'm wondering if the LNP may just manage to stagger across the line - the Graham Young article I posted suggests that people just aren't listening to Labor any more (indeed, it suggests that every time they see a Labor ad, they're more likely to vote LNP). That doesn't bode well for Anna Bligh and suggests that as long as Springborg doesn't make any major gaffes in the next two-and-a-half days, the undecideds could line up behind him (since it seems they don't like Labor and are unsure about the LNP, so as long as they don't see anything to scare them from the LNP they'll probably reluctantly vote for Springborg - although it's by no means a given). Labor has strong leads throughout most of the greater Brisbane area, although having won in landslides the last few elections, the lead in some seats may be over-inflated. Indeed, there are seats that saw a 15% swing to Labor a couple of elections back, where there has been little to no swing since then. The redistribution shakes things around a little, but we shall see.

Liz Cunningham in Gladstone as an independent who has previously backed the conservatives to govern in 1996 (the seat of Gladstone would tend to be a Labor seat, however) whereas Peter Wellington in Nicklin backed Labor to govern following 1998 (the seat of Nicklin is a conservative seat, however). Don't let this fool you, however. Liz Cunningham is certainly a conservative independent (from what I've heard of her votes on Bills, and also from her maiden speech). Peter Wellington is also a conservative independent - he was a member of the National Party, sought preselection as their candidate, lost the preselection and then challenged as an independent and won the seat (they should have just endorsed him in the first place, I would suggest).

In 1998, Labor held 44 seats in the 89 seat Parliament (so one short of a majority), the Independents held 2 seats (Cunningham and Wellington, Wellington was in his first term and Cunningham had been returned despite backing the Liberal-National Coalition government in the previous Parliament), extreme populist One Nation held eleven seats (mostly poor rural areas) the Liberals held 9 seats (down from 15) and the Nationals held 22 seats if my mental arithmetic is still okay. Cunningham was going to make Labor fight for her vote because they'd spent the entire previous Parliament calling her all sorts of choice names for deciding to back the Coalition for government, but I suspect she would have ended up backing them. Even if Cunningham and Wellington both said they'd back the Liberals and Nationals to form government with One Nation, the Liberals had already ruled out accepting One Nation in Coalition and it's very possible that either the Liberal Party would have supported a minority Labor government or at least one or two of its MPs might have.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/glad.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/nick.htm

(maiden speeches are:
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/documents/memberBio/InauguralSpeech/CUNNE_FS.pdf
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/documents/memberBio/InauguralSpeech/Wellington.pdf )

The third independent is former pastor Chris Foley in Maryborough, initially elected at a by-election. He was virtually the same as Peter Wellington - a member of the National Party who lost the preselection and ran as an independent. Again, I think they made a mistake in not picking him for their endorsement.
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/mary.htm
Maiden Speech: http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/documents/memberBio/InauguralSpeech/Foley.PDF

I think there are a couple of former One Nation independents still in the parliament, but how they'll fare is anyone's guess. In Nanango, John Bjelke-Petersen will contest the seat again (he ran last election, too). His father also represented the area when he was Queensland's longest-serving Premier. The family name is probably still quite popular up there (but not popular enough to give him the seat last election). Don't know if he'll get it this election, but he might. The hype surrounding Pauline Hanson's candidacy in Beaudesert may create enough of a flow-on affect to help Pratt hang on (given that she was originally elected with One Nation although she's been returned as an Independent since then).
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/nana.htm

There's another One Nation person up north, however her seat was abolished at the redistribution and split roughly in thirds between three electorates. I think this was a case of gerrymandering to split her personal vote. She's running again, but I'm not sure which seat it is. Looked it up - Dalrymple, she's contesting, as her seat of Tablelands was abolished. Not sure if she'd win or not, though. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/dalr.htm

Condamine will also be interesting - National Party Shadow Minister had his seat abolished at the redistribution and internal party rules prevented him from contesting preselection against a sitting member of the merged party. He's running as an independent against one of his former colleagues. I'm not sure if he'd win or not, but if he does, I think he'd back the LNP. He's a youngish chap, I rather like him - he'd have made a great Minister and I think he could potentially have made a pretty good leader, too. If he got elected, there's every chance he'd rejoin the LNP. http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/cond.htm

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As for Pauline Hanson in Beaudesert running as an independent and how she might act if elected to Parliament... Firstly let me say that Beaudesert is the sort of area where she might do well. It's rural, but I don't think it's as wealthy as some other areas. There are some small townships in there - for example, Mt Tambourine, which has lots of National Parks and walking tracks and has a bit of a tourist area (but not heavily commercialised, indeed, if you're ever visiting Queensland, I'd recommend making the trip up there if you like bush walking). It recently has had some development around the township of Beaudesert itself (judging from when I passed through over Christmas). This development struck me as being the type that could be classified as "I can't afford to buy closer to the city or the beach, so I'll endure the hour-and-a-half drive in peak hour traffic to get to work" housing. This will probably lead to a bit of an increase in Labor's vote (although I don't know how much the population has grown since the election - it may take another election or two to become a real factor). Hanson is most likely to attract National Party voters, who may be upset about the merger of the parties to form the LNP. These two factors combined may lead to an increase in Labor vote, an increase in Independent voters (for Hanson) and both at the expense of the LNP, which holds the seat by just short of 6% (sorry, Hugh, I think I told you 4% last night). Personally, I think the question will be whether Hanson can crack double-digits, rather than whether she'll win, but I'll be the first to acknowledge that a seat like this can swing differently to metropolitan seats, so she may yet end up in Parliament. Regardless of whether she receives >10% or not, it will be interesting to see what happens to her preferences if she's elected further down the line - will the votes expire, or will people preference one of the major parties.

The nude photo scandal may also help her - for those who haven't been following, on Sunday the papers around Australia printed photos they'd received of a 19 year old girl in the 70s, with similar facial features to Hanson, who was photographed in various states of undress (sorry about the poor sentence structure there). Hanson denied it was her, the ex-boyfriend changed his story to "I can't remember what the girl's surname was, but she looks like Hanson and I remember her first name was Pauline." Today a facial recognition expert has said it's definitely not Hanson. I'll find you a link: http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25202240-662,00.html - she may get a bit of a sympathy vote out of this, sort of a low-brow conspiracy theory vote: "the other parties are picking on her because she exposes them for the crooks they are."

[Smid]

Additionally (my last post was too long)...

There's been a Labor gaffe that I stumbled across while looking for the face recognition thing: http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25202826-5018787,00.html

In the Liberal Party, the Leader and Deputy Leader are elected by the partyroom, the Deputy picks his or her portfolio and the Leader gives out the rest to whoever he or she wishes. The Labor Party doesn't do that. The Labor Party has formalised factions, who know how many MPs they each have. They are then awarded a certain number of Ministries to each faction, who names which members of the faction will receive a portfolio and the Leader just picks which portfolio to give to which person the factions have picked. Kevin Rudd announced prior to the federal election that he had a new idea - that he would hand-pick his team instead of letting the faction do it (but the Liberals pointed out that it wasn't really a new idea). Sounds like Bligh is wanting to do the same, but it also sounds like she might have some issue in convincing the factional bosses to let her do it.

And finally...

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,25205217-29277,00.html

25% Undecided (and since we have compulsory voting, they won't just stay home...) As I mentioned earlier, these are probably people who don't like Labor but are still worried about risking the LNP. So long as the LNP avoids any gaffes between now and Saturday, I would suspect they'll break two-thirds to three-quarters to the LNP.

I've snipped a few bits from the article below and I highlighted in bold one section that sums it up pretty well, as does the conclusion of the article (also bolded. I'll italicise some of the more relevant bits in the other sentences). Basically, it seems like people really don't like Labor, but they're not sold on the LNP. When they walk into the booth on Saturday and forced to vote, I think they're more likely to go with the one they're unsure about, rather than the one they don't like, because that's less of a risk. We may not see much movement of those undecided voters in any polls up until election day (although if we see some movement, it could show which way they'll go) but I think on the day the swing may end up being a bit more than the polls are currently suggesting. When the voters aren't interested in listening to what you've got to say, it doesn't matter what you say because they're not going to buy it. So long as the LNP remains gaffe-free, I think there's a good chance of a pretty big swing to them. I've been nervous for quite a while about the election result and the swing required to get in, but I am starting to think there'll be some big movement in some places and some really big movement in some other places, including some where an LNP win is entirely unexpected.

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[minionofmidas]

Election this weekend... the excitement is rising.

Here's to another very very close result just like in the NT and WA.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Election this weekend... the excitement is rising.

Here's to another very very close result just like in the NT and WA.

I'd rather it be like NT than WA

[minionofmidas]

Election this weekend... the excitement is rising.

Here's to another very very close result just like in the NT and WA.

I'd rather it be like NT than WA

Yah, me too. But with such faraway places, an interesting election result is more important than who wins.

[Smid]

Election this weekend... the excitement is rising.

Here's to another very very close result just like in the NT and WA.

I'd rather it be like NT than WA

I think it's going to be an extremely close result like those two. I'm hoping Anthony Green on the ABC will be webcasting the broadcast that will be going out on the ABC TV, like he did for Northern Territory and WA. I have been looking over his blog and haven't found reference to it yet. I think I'll phone them tomorrow and see... Otherwise I'll have to content myself with live updates on the ECQ website - www.ecq.qld.gov.au

News on Condamine:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/03/18/2520095.htm

Meanwhile, the debate about the Premier being able to appoint Ministers drags on...
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25208282-952,00.html

[Hash]

Anybody have a blank (therefore editable) map of the new Queensland electorates? Adam Carr surprisingly has very few Australia maps.

[Hash]

Using Tally Room's Google Earth files, I made a big big Google Earth file showing the partisan colour of the lower house electorates in all Australian states. In Queensland, I broke down LibNat MPs into Nationals and Libruhls.

Note that I use the new boundaries in Queensland and South Australia, but colour them according to their sitting MPs and not notional figures. Electorates in Tasmania and the ACT are coloured in the colour of the top party (if you click on labels, I put the partisan breakdown in those seats). Includes changes are floor crossing and by-elections. And, errors definitely possible.

If you have on old computer/OS, best not put all states at once, unless you absolutely want to destroy your computer. Check off labels if thee wants a clearer view.

You obviously need Google Earth to see this, but that should be obvious.

[Smid]

Tally Room has also uploaded some screen shots of maps done with Google Maps or Google Earth, showing predictions. Much of what they say is expected, although they list a couple of seats I'm not so sure about. http://www.tallyroom.com.au/890

I do not yet hold an opinion on the Copeland/Hopper contest in Condamine. I agree with his analysis of Beaudesert. I think of all the Gold Coast Labor MPs, Peta-Kaye Croft in Broadwater has the best chance of retaining her seat. From what I've heard, she has quite a large personal vote (there are a fair number of aged care facilities in the electorate, and I've heard it suggested that many of the residents see her as being just like their grand-daughter). Currumbin is also a roughy that could produce a surprising result on the night. I'd probably disagree with his call for Mansfield, I think there is a reasonable chance of an LNP pickup there, probably about as good as the chance of a pickup in Springwood. I agree with Asply and probably Indooroopilly. I'm not as confident as he is about Coomera, although it's certainly possible. I agree that it's highly likely that Labor will hang on in Albert.

(Happy to discuss individual electorates).

[Smid]

The Tally Room also updated the maps for the rest of Queensland, and I think it's being run by a "she" not a "he" like I said in my last post. There was also a post about Labor internal polling that I'd take with a grain of salt - if they've been leaked, it's a deliberate leak and the reason is because Labor is a little behind and trying to claim underdog status and convince swing voters that they need to back the Government and tell Greens voters they need to preference: http://www.tallyroom.com.au/category/australia/queensland-2009

She links also to an article in The Australian about these internal polls:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25208427-21147,00.html

I'm currently comparing City Council ward maps and State Parliament electorate maps for Greenslopes and her interesting call of Brisbane Central. I think Greenslopes will be roughly in line with the average results across Brisbane (ie, in a 50-50 election, it's probably also going to be 50-50). Brisbane Central has a gains some Liberal-voting areas and loses some Liberal-voting areas relative to Central Ward (loses most of Wilston, gains Windsor, Swan Hill, New Farm School, Newstead, some of Albion and some of Lutwyche from Hamilton Ward). Overall, I think Brisbane Central is marginally more Liberal than Central Ward, but not by much. Central Ward was won by the Labor Party by a small amount in the 2008 Council election (0.28% margin). Balance this with the fact that across Brisbane, the Liberal vote for popular Lord Mayor Campbell Newman was about 60%. That suggests that in a very strong election for the conservatives, Brisbane Central might possibly be won by them, and that the electorate is probably about 10% more Labor than Brisbane generally. So unless the polls are a few percent more LNP than the current top margin for error, the LNP will probably not win the seat. Possible, but my money would be against it.

Two other helpful blog sites are located here: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/electioncentral/2009/03/19/the-voteshift/
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/
It also contains links to various other sites, too.

[Smid]

First things first... The ABC website was updated today to show that they'd be webcasting their election night coverage. This will be early Saturday morning (like really early) for the US and Canada and during the day Saturday in Europe. The link is here: http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/

I was going to update my tips on here tonight, but...
The election eve Galaxy poll has been released, revealing a collapse in Labor's primary vote in Brisbane (10% swing on last election's results), so I'm going to have to revise (Ashgrove lean Labor becomes lean LNP, Everton goes from moderate Labor to tossup, Mansfield goes from lean LNP to moderate LNP, etc): http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25213216-952,00.html

Here's today's editorial in the main Queensland paper:
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25211974-13360,00.html
My fiancee and I have previously joked about switching cds at a Labor campaign launch so that when the Leader walks out, they come out to that song by Uniting Nations Out of Touch, so pleased to see that the paper shares our sense of humour. Went to find the film clip, but it's probably a bit too risque to post here.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213413-5018775,00.html - the postcard it refers to... I saw one of these that was sent out during the Redcliffe by-election a few years back. The seat was held by the Speaker, who had spent a large amount of time holidaying overseas and the front had a photo of some place in Asia, with his face on it, too and "greetings from your local member"

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213655-5018775,00.html - this chap suggests the sorts of people who are crossing over in the Galaxy poll above. It's the tradespeople who delivered Howard all of his election results, and delivered Rudd his...

This, however, is disappointing. I know one of the people mentioned in this article, although not closely (we knew each other, and would say g'day at meetings or whatever, but we weren't really close) but haven't chatted since I moved interstate: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213410-5018775,00.html

Another interesting article: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213409-5018775,00.html

And the Galaxy poll gets another mention, plus a teaser for the latest Newspoll (not yet on their website) that will be published on Saturday (election day). http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25213650-5018775,00.html

[Hash]

My predictions. Remember to be kind, since this is my first stint at predicting Australian elections and secondly since my predictions worldwide are quite bad (though I was pleasantly surprised at how I nailed the Chartres by-election last year). Anyways.





I based these on my rough knowledge, ABC's electorate profiles, Tally Room's prediction, and another prediction I read online. Obviously, there are some electorates I'm really not sure about, but did my best to figure something out.

This map gives Lab 43, LNP 42, Ind 4.  If I can count correctly, which isn't a given.

[Smid]

My predictions. Remember to be kind, since this is my first stint at predicting Australian elections and secondly since my predictions worldwide are quite bad (though I was pleasantly surprised at how I nailed the Chartres by-election last year). Anyways.

I based these on my rough knowledge, ABC's electorate profiles, Tally Room's prediction, and another prediction I read online. Obviously, there are some electorates I'm really not sure about, but did my best to figure something out.

This map gives Lab 43, LNP 42, Ind 4.  If I can count correctly, which isn't a given.

Looks like a pretty good guess to me. I think my predictions (before that poll came out were Labor 43, LNP 41, Ind 5, although I'm going to change that around. Whereas the Tally Room gave Mt Isa to the LNP, I think I'd be backing your call on that. I see you've passed Dalrymple to the LNP - that was my #5 for the indies, although I've been agonising over that one. The booths from Tablelands that went into Dalrymple polled 55% primary vote for Lee-Long last election and Charters Towers didn't have a One Nation candidate last election, making it difficult to determine how those booths might vote. This breaks it down to about 35% LNP, 31% ONP and 30% Labor. If the ONP vote improves in the Charters Towers half of the electorate (most likely at the expense of the LNP), it is possible Lee-Long may retain the seat, depending on how Labor voters preference (or indeed, if they preference). I don't know if Labor's allocationg preferences on the HTV cards for that seat - if they are, they'd be telling their voters to preference the LNP ahead of One Nation, but they may be advocating a "just vote 1" preference. I also had some difficulty picking Condamine. More people have voted for Copeland over the past two elections than voted for Hopper, however Copeland had the benefit of a party endorsement - how many of his votes he will lose by not being the endorsed candidate is difficult to say (although country voters seem more willing to support independent candidates than city voters, so probably more than Peter King got in Wentworth in the 2004 federal election). Labor's preferencing Copeland, so as long as they don't outpoll him, he'll pick up their preferences which would probably deliver him the seat - obviously this doesn't help if they outpoll him. Labor preferencing him is probably a long-term mistake on their part, I would suspect. He was mentioned as a future leader at one point by Springborg and I think has some real potential. Even if he is elected as an independent, there is a chance he'll be welcomed back into the LNP fold (similarly to Hopper a few elections back) so Labor might just be saving a conservative MP who will later cause them to regret that decision.

I'm going to try to get my predictions up later today, although I think they will be quite similar to yours.

[Franzl]

Judging by what I've read about Queensland....(and I don't know too much about Australian politics)....I guess I'll support the LNP.

[Hash]

Judging by what I've read about Queensland....(and I don't know too much about Australian politics)....I guess I'll support the LNP.

I find the Australian Liberals too socially conservative for my tastes.

And I'm most certainly not overjoyed of a merger with rural Nationals.

[Franzl]

Judging by what I've read about Queensland....(and I don't know too much about Australian politics)....I guess I'll support the LNP.

I find the Australian Liberals too socially conservative for my tastes.

And I'm most certainly not overjoyed of a merger with rural Nationals.

I agree with you on that, more like a lesser evil though.

Mind you, for this election in Queensland, it wasn't meant to be taken as a general statement on all of Australia.

[Smid]

http://www.mumble.com.au/ - mentions the likelihood of one or two "ohmygod" seat losses.

The latest couple of polls are showing about a 10% primary vote swing against the Labor Party in Brisbane, however this may not be enough to topple them from Government.

I've heard a few things from back home. My sister, who is not actively involved in politics advises that when she went to vote today, "it was like a ghost town" with very few voters up there. This is usually a fairly busy booth, and a lack of early voters may suggest a reluctant vote later in the day, probably for the government. I'll be keeping an eye on the results from that booth when they come in. At the gate where my sister entered the booth, there were 2 Labor campaigners, one Green and six LNP. The lack of Labor campaigners probably means one of two things: either Labor has given up on the seats that booth is in (it's actually on the boundary of a couple of seats - Sunnybank and Stretton) and aren't wasting campaign volunteers there - this is unlikely as the seats are held by about 15%, or it means that Labor's internal polling is showing that they'll be comfortably returned in those seats but that they're at risk in other seats, and they'll pulled their campaigners out to fight where they need to fight.

The other possibility is that Labor supporters in the area aren't volunteering this election, which would be exceptionally bad news for Labor. A source working on the LNP campaign in the area tells me that many houses that typically display Labor signs aren't this election, and one's even displaying an LNP sign.

My other sister just told me it was also fairly quiet at the booth she voted at (joint booth for Coomera and Albert). Coomera is a seat that's been discussed a lot as a potential LNP gain. She said the number of campaigners was roughly equal between LNP and Labor and totalled about 8. She also said that the discussion in her workplace has been pretty much the same as what the polls have been saying - her colleagues don't like Labor, but are unsure about Springborg.

Word that I received from Algester earlier today is that the LNP candidate has been very well received, while visiting one of the booths that went quite strongly for Labor last election, but has shown it's willingness to vote LNP at various federal and council elections - basically when we've given them a reason to vote LNP, they have. If the LNP is doing well there, it suggest they'd be doing well in other seats they need. The Liberal candidate underperformed in Algester at the last election (nice guy, but they didn't vote for him). The Labor MP lives well outside the electorate, and even her electorate office is outside the electorate. One half of the electorate has nothing to do with the other half (east-west divide) and the western half has been typically ignored in most election campaigns. Although on paper it's safer ALP than Sunnybank, of the two I would suspect Algester to be more likely to swing.

Stretton, Algester and Sunnybank are all electorates that have shown a willingness to vote for LNP in the past. In 1995 (I think) Stretton almost swung to the Liberals (about 1-2% Labor). There've been a couple of redistributions since then, but the 15% margin is inflated by three landslide elections to Labor. Additionally, all three local members have further problems. In Algester, the MP lost her licence for drink driving (three times over the legal limit). In Sunnybank, the MP is the Police Minister and has for years stated that there is no crime wave in the local area. A month or two before the election, she wrote to the Police Commissioner requesting additional police resources in the Sunnybank electorate to combat the crime wave. Locals have viewed this with cynicism. The MP for Stretton, Stephen Robertson, is Health Minister and hasn't done a terribly good job with the portfolio. The first video here is a news clip of him stumbling in a media conference: http://www.annasrecord.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=93&Itemid=1

The MPs for Sunnybank and Stretton have both been savaged in the media over their respective ministerial portfolios, and this may have an impact on their election.

In more recent news, my sister (the first one I mentioned) has gone down the Gold Coast today and passed Kuraby State School (Stretton) and now Palm Beach State School (Burleigh). Labor had numbers out in Kuraby, which is not entirely unexpected - Robertson is from that end of the electorate, as are some of his staff. It's also an area that has swung heavily Liberal in the past, so they may be attempting to defend the seat there. Apparently lots of Labor banners and posters, but even numbers of LNP and Labor campaigners.

Palm Beach is in Burleigh - a much-needed seat for the LNP. Apparently about 2 Labor, 6 LNP and lots of LNP helium balloons.

EDIT: My parents pre-polled at a booth in Burleigh the other day (absentee vote) and said that there was a strong mood for the LNP candidate - people coming up and shaking his hand and wishing him luck. However prepoll votes tend to favour conservative candidates, so we'll see if it is also reflected in votes today.

This sort of shenanigan also seems to pop up every election - http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25220042-952,00.html

Last election (same seat) Labor complained about HTV cards handed out by the "Friends of the Mary River" - alledging that this group was none other than Liberal Students. The cards handed out by them said to vote 1 Green and put Labor last because of the Traveston Dam.

In 1998, Labor did this in Mansfield - handing out cards in One Nation's Orange colour, where the card said "Thinking of voting One Nation?" at the top and then putting One Nation 1, Labor 2, Liberal 3 - whereas One Nation was actually directing preferences to the Liberals. Labor won by about 50 votes, I think, it was sent to the Court of Disputed Returns, which ruled that the fake HTV cards influenced the result, but refused to actually overturn the result.

[Smid]

So now for my tips...

Albert - Labor Retain
Algester - Labor Retain (although be prepared for an upset there, see my comments above)
Ashgrove - LNP Gain (has demonstrated a propensity to vote Liberal at other levels)
Aspley - LNP Gain (Tracey Davis is an excellent candidate - her second run for the seat. She also ran previously in Everton and played an extremely active role in the Redcliffe byelection)
Barron River - LNP Gain (Retiring Member - once you take out his personal vote, the seat is virtually 50-50 and apparently Labor picked a pretty poor candidate)
Beaudesert - My earlier tip was Labor Gain. I've changed my mind, I think the LNP will hang on there.
Brisbane Central - Labor supposedly feared a swing there, but I think was just trying to give people a false sense of urgency. Labor Retain.
Broadwater - Labor Retain - the local member is highly popular (as I said in an earlier post). Lost the strongest LNP area, Hope Island has been moved to the new seat of Coomera.
Buderim - LNP Gain (new seat, comfortable LNP).
Bulimba - Labor Retain - Retiring MP who is retiring amid controversy (abusing staff), however I cannot imagine a circumstance in which this seat would ever vote LNP (without substantial demographic change, which is happening slowly).
Bundaberg - LNP Retain
Bundamba - Labor Retain
Burdekin - LNP Gain/Retain (currently held by LNP, but redistribution made it Labor on paper)
Burleigh - LNP Gain
Burnett - LNP Retain
Cairns - LNP Gain (Wendy is a great candidate who ran in this seat last election. Bligh guaranteeing Boyle's place in the Cabinet suggests that Labor internal polling is showing a weakness there and the Premier was trying to prop up the Member)
Callide - LNP Retain
Caloundra - LNP Retain
Capalaba - Labor Retain
Chatsworth - LNP Gain (Caltabiano is a very strong name in this electorate)
Clayfield - LNP Retain (was worried about it at the start of the campaign, but I'm comfortable about it now)
Cleveland - LNP Gain (is a strong LNP area federally)
Condamine - tough call, I'll discuss it separately
Cook - Labor Retain (Retiring Member. Labor candidate is inheriting the seat from his dad, who is the retiring MP)
Coomera - LNP Gain (new seat)
Currumbin - LNP Retain (I was nervous about this seat earlier, but I think she'll be alright. DS4SEQ Party will probably do well, but I think she'll hang on)
Dalrymple - I'll discuss it separately, too
Everton - LNP Gain (very iffy, very much tossup - this area is part of the Northside bible belt which isn't as large as the Southside bible belt - retiring Member so Labor's vote will be slightly down, plus whatever swing comes along. Lots of talk about this seat in the media as being difficult for Labor)
Ferny Grove - Labor Retain
Gaven - LNP Gain (LNP candidate won this seat at a byelection, before losing it to Labor at the General Election. The Labor MP threatened legal action against two old age pensioners for saying that he was going to lose the election. The LNP candidate is a local doctor who has probably been the family doctor for... (exageration) half the electorate)
Gladstone - Independent (Liz Cunningham) Retain (will be assisted by LNP voters - as this is the only seat the LNP isn't contesting)
Glass House - LNP Gain/Retain (Labor MP abandoned the seat after the redistribution made it favour the LNP)
Greenslopes - LNP Gain (retiring MP, will be tough to gain, but I think slightly more likely than 50-50)
Gregory - LNP Retain
Gympie - LNP Retain
Hervey Bay - LNP Gain
Hinchinbrook - LNP Retain (was a marginal LNP seat, but the ALP candidate lives a thousand kilometers outside the seat and confesses that he "once drove through the electorate on a road trip.")
Inala - Labor Retain
Indooroopilly - LNP Gain (enough's been written about this seat that I don't think I need to explain my reasoning)
Ipswich - Labor Retain
Ipswich West - Labor Retain
Kallangur - Labor Retain
Kawana - LNP Retain
Keppel - Labor Retain (saved by booths in the expanding area outside of Rockhampton)
Lockyer - LNP Retain
Logan - Labor Retain
Lytton - Labor Retain
Mackay - Labor Retain
Mansfield - LNP Gain (Southside bible belt. I'm told by campaign volunteers that it won't flip, but I think it will. I had previously thought it was a retiring MP, but have found out it isn't. The local MP is fairly popular, and his personal vote may be the only thing that saves him)
Maroochydore - LNP Retain
Maryborough - Independent (Chris Foley) Retain
Mermaid Beach - LNP Retain
Mirani - LNP Gain/Retain (Redistribution made it ALP, but it has a sitting LNP member)
Moggill - LN Retain
Morayfield - Labor Retain
Mount Coot-tha - Labor Retain (I haven't heard from campaign workers in the seat, but while the area has voted Liberal in the past, I don't think it's budging. The Labor MP is Treasurer and therefore extremely high profile, and the Greens do very well in the seat)
Mount Isa - Labor Retain (early reports suggested Labor was worried about this area, but I think they'll be right)
Mount Ommaney - LNP Gain (risky call, but I suspect the swing will be above average here. It's voted Liberal at council and federal elections)
Mudgeeraba - LNP Gain
Mulgrave - Labor Retain (I was mistaken about Cook earlier. Read what I said there and it should have been about this seat. Both will be retained by Labor)
Mundingburra - LNP Retain (I am basing this stupidly off what the newspaper has been saying. This seat gave the Coalition Government at a byelection in 1996. I believe it is suburban Townsville and may well attract a bigger swing than other regional centres)
Murrumba - Labor Retain
Nanango - LNP Gain (Independent will be knocked off by the son of former Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen, who also represented this area. New parts of the electorate = lower personal vote for her, plus natural increase in LNP vote will also help)
Nicklin - Comfortable Independent (Peter Wellington) Retain
Noosa - LNP Retain
Nudgee - Labor Retain
Pine Rivers - Labor Retain
Pumicestone - LNP Gain
Redcliffe - LNP Gain
Redlands - LNP Gain
Rockhampton - Labor Retain
Sandgate - Labor Retain
South Brisbane - Labor Retain (Premier's electorate)
Southern Downs - LNP Retain (Opposition Leader's electorate)
Southport - Labor Retain (along with Broadwater, these two will be the two that Labor hangs onto on the Gold Coast)
Springwood - LNP Gain
Stafford - Labor Retain
Stretton - Labor Retain (although has the potential to be marginal - I think it will see an above-average swing)
Sunnybank - Labor Retain (see Stretton)
Surfers Paradise - LNP Retain
Thuringowa - Labor Retain
Toowoomba North - LNP Gain
Toowoomba South - LNP Retain
Townsville - Labor Retain
Warrego - LNP Retain
Waterford - Labor Retain
Whitsunday - LNP Gain/Retain (became LNP on redistribution, but held by Labor MP)
Woodridge - Labor Retain
Yeerongpilly - Labor Retain (big swing last election - 9% or so, on the back of an extremely good candidate, Marie Jackson - who is presently running in Sunnybank. This seat saw such a big swing last election, there probably won't be much change this election - this should not be seen as a reflection on Juliana, who has been working hard throughout the campaign).

[Smid]

Condamine:

This seat is a merger of parts of Cunningham and parts of Darling Downs - both strong National Party seats. The MP for Darling Downs is the endorsed candidate for the seat, while the MP for Cunningham is running as an independent and will receive preferences from Labor.

I have looked at the booths in Condamine and allocated them according to which electorate they were in at the 2004 and 2006 elections and then compared how they voted.

In 2006, Stuart Copeland (MP, Condamine) received 7,710 votes (29.3%), Ray Hopper (MP, Darling Downs) received 7,374 votes (28.02%) - note that these two are only in their respective electorates so without Copeland, Hopper would be expected to win about 15,000 votes, the next few figures are aggregates across both electorates. Labor won (across both electorates, at booths now in Condamine, 7,205 votes (27.38%), Family First 3,302 votes (12.55%) and the Greens 722 votes (2.74%).

In 2004, the votes were as follows: Copeland 8,145 votes (31.48%), Hopper 6,158 votes (23.8%), Labor 6,774 votes (26.18%), One Nation 2,136 votes (8.26%), Independent 1 (votes only from Darling Downs) 1,649 votes (6.37%), Independent 2 (vote also only from Darling Downs) 1,012 votes (3.91%).

Therefore, if this vote remained static, Copeland would probably win on Labor preferences, however it is unlikely the vote will remain static. The LNP has apparently written to party members in Copeland's end of the electorate, telling them he's done a deal with Labor. How much of Cunningham switches from Copeland to remain with the Nats/Hopper remains to be seen. On the other hand, Darling Downs has shown a strong propensity to vote independent in the past (Hopper was initially elected as an independent), so some of his vote might split off and go to Copeland. Rural seats such as this do like to support independents and local identities and it's very easy for a sitting member to develop a strong name recognition/personal vote. For this reason, I think Copeland will do very well in his end of the electorate, but the question of whether or not he wins will be based on how many votes he loses to the endorsed National candidate in his electorate, and how many he gains as an independent in Hopper's end of the electorate. On the whole, I think his supporters will remember that he's a Nat in all but endorsement, so I think that he's more likely to win votes in the other end than he is to lose them in his end, so I'm calling a tough race but won by Copeland on Labor preferences.

[Smid]

Dalrymple:

Dalrymple is a new electorate at this election, a merger in the gerrymander that split up the One Nation held seat of Tablelands into three separate electorates to disperse the MP's vote. Dalrymple is the merger of two seats - Tablelands (held by One Nation's Rosa Lee-Long) and Charters Towers (held by LNP's Shane Knuth - whose brother is a former One Nation MP in yet another seat, but we'll ignore that aspect as I don't believe it will influence the result).

As I did for Condamine, I have also broken up the booths in Dalrymple according to where they originated.

In 2006, Lee Long received 55.71% of the primary votes cast in the booths that have been transferred to Dalrymple, the Nats won 17.29%, Labor 20.42%, Greens 3.73% and Family First 2.85%.

In 2006 in Charters Towers, Shane Knuth won 56.82% of the vote against Labor's 43.18%. There were no other parties contesting the seat, so it's difficult to determine how well One Nation may have performed.

Merging the two seats, the figures are:
ONP 31.06%
LNP 34.78%
GRN 2.08%
FFP 1.59%
ALP 30.49%

However these numbers underestimate One Nation's vote because they only had a candidate in one seat. Much of their increased vote would come from the LNP, with a smaller amount coming from the ALP.

In 2004, the figures for Tablelands (Dalrymple booths) were:
Lee Long - 49.41%, ALP - 25.19%, Nationals - 25.4%

and for Charters Towers, they were:
ONP - 11.23%, Nationals - 40.42% and ALP 48.36%

So across the two electorates, the results were:
ONP - 34.71%
LNP - 31.18%
ALP - 34.11%

So the result would have depended on preference flow - with Nationals supporters perhaps defying the party's how to vote card and preferencing Lee Long.

This result somewhat overestimates Labor and underestimates the LNP however, as there was a Labor incumbent in Charters Towers following the landslide result in 2001. An election held today would probably see the ALP coming third overall with the LNP finishing slightly ahead of One Nation. Labor preferences against One Nation have delivered victory to the Nationals in the past, and I would suspect they would do so again. Lee Long has also improved her vote, however, to the detriment of the Nationals.

I think that tonight, One Nation will outpoll the LNP, which will outpoll Labor, before Labor preferences will deliver the seat to the LNP's Shane Knuth. If Rosa Lee-Long takes enough votes from the LNP, however, and Labor finishes second, I think she will hold onto the seat. Dalrymple will be a pure toss-up, but I think will favour the LNP tonight.

[Smid]

My final call is therefore probably overly optimisitc - 49 LNP (4 seat majority), 37 Labor, 4 Independents. This would be roughly similar to Western Australia where there were a few seats that were won that were entirely unexpected.

Algester, Sunnybank and Stretton would probably swing together if they do swing, but if only one swings, it will probably be Algester, but it's likely all three will be retained by Labor.

[Smid]

ABC election coverage will start in about two or three hours (I think it starts 6.30 Queensland time, which is three hours, because it's Australian Eastern Standard Time rather than Australian Eastern Daylight Time and the booths would only shut at 6pm Queensland time (2 1/2 hours away).

The coverage will be available here:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/ - there's a link available there now.

He's also just put out an article on predicting elections on election night (as booth results become known/reported):

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/predictingelections.htm

The second half of the article should probably go somewhere else as it isn't just Qld related but has application in other elections, too.

[Franzl]

Do we get exit poll data or something like that?

[Smid]

Do we get exit poll data or something like that?

Exit polls aren't as accurate as in the US, but suggest a 50-50 result.

The ABC News is presently on, and will switch to election coverage in 10-15 minutes.

This gives most recently updated seats:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/latest.htm

And you can click on the seats to see their figures and an overview of the electorate.

[Franzl]

Do we get exit poll data or something like that?

Exit polls aren't as accurate as in the US, but suggest a 50-50 result.

The ABC News is presently on, and will switch to election coverage in 10-15 minutes.

This gives most recently updated seats:

http://www.abc.net.au/elections/qld/2009/guide/latest.htm

And you can click on the seats to see their figures and an overview of the electorate.

I don't see how they can possibly be less accurate than in the U.S.